Am I bluffing? I think I'm bluffing ($400NL river decision)

[the_main]

No reads on villian.

I just sat at the game, although the previous hand I called a continuation bet from diff. player, and bet the turn when he checked to me. I took down the pot.

This is the very next hand, and I am emulating the same pattern to evoke a response from worse hands.

NOTE: I know a case can be made for shoving the turn, and that might be the best play here, but I'd like to focus on the river decision, because thats where the hand becomes interesting.

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $2/$4 Blinds - 8 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $376.00
BB: $615.20
UTG: $413.00
UTG+1: $430.20
MP1: $513.00
MP2: $219.20
<font color="black">the_main (CO): $433.00</font>
BTN: $329.70

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> the_main is dealt K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (8 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">MP1 raises to $16.00</font>, MP2 folds, the_main calls $16.00, 2 folds, BB calls $12.00

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">MP1 bets $24.00</font>, the_main calls $24.00, BB folds

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($98) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">MP1 bets $28.00</font>, <font color="red">the_main raises to $72.00</font>, <font color="red">MP1 raises to $116.00</font>, the_main calls $44.00

<font color="black">River:</font> ($330) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
MP1 checks, <font color="red">the_main bets all-in for $277.00</font>

The only thing that can call is a J, or 22, right?
And a J can't check that river, can he?

Hands ahead that I get to fold include, 77, AA and all flushes.

Or do I have enough value to just take this to showdown (my first intstinct)?

[onoble]

Don't like... you get called by the hands that beat you and the hands you bet fold... a zero sum play.

[the_main]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't like... you get called by the hands that beat you and the hands you bet fold... a zero sum play.

[/ QUOTE ]

What about a flush, AA, or 77.... they should all fold here, IMO.

[CalledDownLight]

This is definitely a bluff and I don't think I like it much at all. I think I'm calling you with AA here and sometimes QQ (won't you be happy when I show queens though). 77 is a pretty clear call for me in this spot too. I just don't see you being able to rep a jack as you probably wouldn't raise it on the turn and don't usually cold-call with any hands that have a J in them preflop. You're basically trying to rep 77 IMO and that is still a little bit shady. You have enough SD value to just check it down although he probably has AA here a lot (sometimes he shows up with JJ too IMO).

[CalledDownLight]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Don't like... you get called by the hands that beat you and the hands you bet fold... a zero sum play.

[/ QUOTE ]

What about a flush, AA, or 77.... they should all fold here, IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

What are you trying to rep? (FWIW I doubt he ever shows up with a flush)

[the_main]

reppin a jack, or trying to.

[CalledDownLight]

[ QUOTE ]
reppin a jack, or trying to.

[/ QUOTE ]

Between preflop and the turn I think thats pretty tough, especially since the turn raise makes most sense with Js10s or AsJs. I can't see raising the turn with a jack too often especially since he looks like he's going to let you get to SD cheaply. Obviously this isn't your defalut line with kings, but I think its a bad spot to bluff. You get looked up with most hands that beat you and the few hands in his range that you beat are being floded a lot of the time.

[FearNoArt]

I can see villain calling with 77 here, either villain is a donk or he's trying to keep you in the pot with these small bets and raises, he may put you on something like KsQs, he may think your floating the flop and then playing your draw agressively on the turn and his 3 bet is so small there,like he's trying to keep you in , giving you odds to hit flush... If he is on a flush draw, he's calling , because if this is how he plays a flush draw, this bad , villain will call IMO.

[Cry Me A River]

I have an awful hard time believing he folds 77/AA. People just don't fold full houses, particularly at an aggro table. I dunno, I think there might be a theorem about that... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Unless you have some huge-ass read that he's majorly weak-tight or something.

It's unlikely he back-doored a flush but even there he'd have to be pretty damn sure you flopped a set or had a J to fold it.

The only benefit I see to pushing is that you stack QQ, but I think that's one hand someone might actually be capable of folding if it occurs to him you might have been slowplaying a bigger pair.

[D.L.M.]

why not check it down? i think that this is a bad bluff, i dont think that raising the turn was a great idea either. raise the flop. if you were gonna raise the turn then you have to shove dude, nothing else makes sense.