Hand reading quiz

[Riina]

if this [ QUOTE ]
He open raises many hands from the cutoff such as 89s, A8s, 44, Q10 etc, but he plays them well for the most part post flop, saving bigger pots for bigger hands yet extracting value when he can.


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and this

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Some more detailed blind play: I 3-bet him with a pretty wide range preflop, 3-betting big pairs and big aces close to 100%. He knows my cold call means I will mostly have lower pocket pairs and connectors and sometimes hands like A10 or KJ. I will also checkraise the flop a fair ammount of time when I cold call.


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is true and you pick him as:
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Villain is solid and good.

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I think you'll have a hard time extracting enough value out of this hand in the long term (but i think it's close though), as he will probably know what dangers to look for given your strict range preflop and adjust accordingly. Assuming he respects your play, he'll be able to save him money on his bigger hands (overpairs) and profitably punch you around on the right textures.

As played and given your description i don't really like the rivercall, for more of the same reasons as stated above. This really doesn't look like a boardtexture he would want to be messing with you.

edit: given the responses i do want to add that i forgot to say that i prefer folding over calling given the reasons above. But 3-betting over folding...

[Al_Money]

lol at all the preflop discussion in this thread... FWIW I almost always 3 bet here but w/e.

I think your flop/turn line is good, but I would probably fold river w/o a better read on his postflop tendencies. It's tough to put a range on him since he checked the flop, unless you know the type of hands he does this with after raising pre. His river bet really looks like a thin value bet, and I think we are behind a bit more often then not.

[David Nicoson]

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His river bet really looks like a thin value bet, and I think we are behind a bit more often then not.

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That makes this a pretty clear call getting 3:1 then, right?

[Sotiria]

Reasonable hands that you beat that he could have:

55, 66, 56, complete air

Like some previous posters said, him floating you on the turn with AJ would be pretty strange. With the above hands, perhaps he puts you on Ax and thinks you are trying to buy the pot on the turn...because you didn't be the river, he doesn't think you have a jack, and believes you are good enough to lay down a middle pair.

Hands he could have that beat you:

88-AA, A8s, 44

With a player like this, I'd think he would try to build a pot with a monster like 44 or flopped quads, especially if he puts you on an overpair or middle pair. An overpair for him looks like the most likely hand that he has and he is value betting the river.

I guess my question is, how close is this? Is this hand close enough that it doesn't really matter what we do? Villain seems like a solid player that mixes up his game, so is it close to 50/50 that he is trying to make it look like he has a decent hand that he is value betting vs. the times he is trying to buy the pot? I don't think so, but I'm curious what everyone else thinks.

[aislephive]

I'd fold. The only hand that makes sense that we beat is 56

[HedonismBot]

K, so preflop he can have a lot of hands, I call 77 in the BB, standard. On the flop I check, he checks behind, pretty normal. Turn comes a blank and I bet to fold out his overcard hands and for consistency cause I bet this with my whiffed overcards too. When he calls though he most likely has a pair or possibly something like AK that still might be good. The only hand with a jack in it that might call the turn is AJ, which I think he bets the flop most of the time (more so than AK) and probably folds turn so we can pretty much rule that out.

He definitely doesn't have a draw and didn't just pair up because all his low unpaired hands are betting flop for the greatest chance of taking the pot down. This isn't an opponent specific read, its just a super standard c-bet at this level.

So I'd say his range is 85-90% mid pairs and 10-15% AK hands.

When he half pots the river we can be sure it is a value bet. Hands like AK and lower pairs are always checking behind cause betting is just too thin. Mid pairs make up such a large part of my range here that checking behind 55 and 66 is the standard play. So I put him squarely on 99 or 1010 trying tosquueze out value from lower pairs and decided to call to check my read and he tabled 1010.

[The White Rabbit]

Nice analysis.

Now I'll pose my earlier question again: what about a river c/r? He'll certainly won't call you with 99/TT!

[HedonismBot]

Yeah a push here is most likely +EV especially if he's not on tilt

[Acemanhattan]

Some more detailed blind play: I 3-bet him with a pretty wide range preflop, 3-betting big pairs and big aces close to 100%. He knows my cold call means I will mostly have lower pocket pairs and connectors and sometimes hands like A10 or KJ. I will also checkraise the flop a fair ammount of time when I cold call.

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its a mistake that he knows that about you.

[HedonismBot]

[ QUOTE ]

Some more detailed blind play: I 3-bet him with a pretty wide range preflop, 3-betting big pairs and big aces close to 100%. He knows my cold call means I will mostly have lower pocket pairs and connectors and sometimes hands like A10 or KJ. I will also checkraise the flop a fair ammount of time when I cold call.

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its a mistake that he knows that about you.

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lol no its not. unless you mean that its a mistake on my part to play predicatably enough for him to know that, but still no