Am I bluffing? I think I'm bluffing ($400NL river decision)

[effang]

why does he have to have AA or FH here? he can play QQ the same?

[Raised2Win]

[ QUOTE ]
reppin a jack, or trying to.

[/ QUOTE ]

omg dont. why ? U only bluff out AA if u are lucky he is folding, I seriously doubt he folds 77 to your line or even a flush. check this river behind.

+ He really looks strong on turn, I even doubt he has AA or QQ. Quad jacks, quad deuces or 77. and like I said I doubt u
escape even 77 here. Fancy play syndrome here.

[Raised2Win]

really curious about the results though

[diebitter]

I seriously can't decide if this is +EV or not. I think it probably is, but my level of uncertainty in that belief would still lead to me checking.
.

[Raised2Win]

[ QUOTE ]
I seriously can't decide if this is +EV or not. I think it probably is, but my level of uncertainty in that belief would still lead to me checking.
.

[/ QUOTE ]

Talking about the river shove being +EV or not ? I belive its -EV. U are going to get called alot when u are beat, and sometimes u get called when u aren't beat, but It doesn't really save the situation.

The range hero is bluffing is so narrow and that range can easily make tilt calls in these situations where they have monster hand on turn and get terrible river but still call out of frustration.

[diebitter]

I did mean the rive shove.

I do keep thinking of all the hands the villian could have given his play, and all the hands the villain might put the hero on...

i doubt he'd fold a boat here (I wouldn't given the play), but AA and the flush I can see folding.

It's close. I still elect the lower variance check rather than a push.

[Phresh]

This is pretty ugly and your turn play does not reflect your river play. You shouldn't be calling the turn because you believe you're ahead and then shoving the river on a bluff. You need to make your decision on the hand on the turn.

Your hand still has SD value bro, just check it behind. I think a bet here (esp. a shove) is way too thin.

[effang]

i just really don't get all these weak bets across the board. he 1/2 pots it on the flop, he donk bets and 3-bets you on the turn.

but the turn bet is STILL weak. at the end of the day, all things said and done, he essentially made a pot sized value bet on the turn.

all things said and done, can anybody explain why villain has to have ONLY AA and FH here? you wouldn't play QQ the same?

if i lead out weak w/ QQ on the flop and turn, and i got raised on my weak bet, i would definately repop it if given my instincts "the_main" likes to float.

as is, i think this is a good play. i think he folded. i think he had AK and had nothing. obv, any jack is calling, 77 will be forced to call, and AA and QQ wouldn't play it so ridiculously bad.

and how does his turn bet not reflect his river play? villain bet weak twice, and hero, with a "j" decided to test if villain had a hand or not on the turn, instead of the standard flop raise.

[David Nicoson]

It's definitely a good thought. It's easy to get in the habit of checking down mediocre hands on the river without giving any consideration to the alternatives.

I can't say I like this move, though. I think we're getting called pretty often, even if he has exactly the hands we're targeting. The villain's getting 2.2 : 1 or so, and he has to consider the weakness he has shown by checking the river.

[the_main]

I don't have any other info on this hand... he did fold.

I posted it because I thought I might have made a bad play and got lucky.

I think the worst play in this hand is not 3-betting the turn, and shoving the river might just be compounding my error.