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#41
05-15-2007, 11:19 AM
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Re: Knowing your math. Basic draws.
An easy way to figure it out is to check what odds you need (4:1 in this case), multiply the bet by 4 and subtract the pot. The remainder is the amount you need to make when you hit. If it's negative, you have direct odds.
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#42
05-15-2007, 11:37 AM
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Re: Knowing your math. Basic draws.
[ QUOTE ]
3) Were most likely behind here to Kx here. We have ~17% chance to pike our OESD on river. I'd fold here... (Don't be a fish!) [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] What king does the nit call the flop with? Even if he did hit top pair on the turn (which I won't grant anyways), but lets say that he did, we've still got pretty good FE against a hand like KQ or even AK sometimes. Most nits are not willing to stack off with only one pair.
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#43
05-15-2007, 11:41 AM
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Re: Knowing your math. Basic draws.
[ QUOTE ]
What king does the nit call the flop with? [/ QUOTE ] One with a flush draw, imho.
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#44
05-15-2007, 11:50 AM
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Re: Knowing your math. Basic draws.
1) I guess it depends, fold but often call. I'm not convinced the line isnt a strong hand though there are a lot of hands he could take this line with as an aggro "defender". If you think hes on a lot looser of a range with this seemingly aggro line I dont even hate a turn jam but mainly I think I'd go fold/call>shove.
2) I dont always cbet AQ here but if I do cbet I dont mind a 2nd barrel cause im a donk (the board isnt great but hes still likely calling pretty light). As played once you check the turn just pitch it. 3) i guess fold, but i always want to shove [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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#45
05-15-2007, 11:54 AM
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Re: Knowing your math. Basic draws.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] 3) Were most likely behind here to Kx here. We have ~17% chance to pike our OESD on river. I'd fold here... (Don't be a fish!) [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] What king does the nit call the flop with? Even if he did hit top pair on the turn (which I won't grant anyways), but lets say that he did, we've still got pretty good FE against a hand like KQ or even AK sometimes. Most nits are not willing to stack off with only one pair. [/ QUOTE ] So whats your play here? Push?
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#46
05-15-2007, 12:05 PM
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Re: Knowing your math. Basic draws.
1. Fold. To make a call correct he has to stack off EVERY TIME on a club river. Which is doubtful. Also, pushing is just spew a vast majority of the time. I'd only ever push here if I've been making this play vs this particular player with monsters and showed them down or something.
2. c/f to his bet. subQ: fold 3. fold geeze I guess I like to fold?
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#48
05-15-2007, 12:12 PM
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Re: Knowing your math. Basic draws.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] 1) we are getting 80-40 on our draw, or 2-1, the flush is to hit slightly less than 4-1. However, we can fold on the river UI, so if we think we can our opponent to call a bet over $80+ on the river, making our turn call 40 to win 160+, then our call is correct, if we think he will fold too often to this bet when we hit then it is correct to fold on the turn, so it is player dependent [/ QUOTE ] Johnnyrocket: We are getting calling $40 for a $120 pot = 3:1 not 2:1 [/ QUOTE ] good catch, botched the math up there
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#49
05-15-2007, 12:22 PM
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Re: Knowing your math. Basic draws.
[ QUOTE ]
Why are people saying fold hand 1. We are gettgin 3:1 and need about 4:1. Can we get > 40 in on the river in a 160 pot? I think so [/ QUOTE ]we arent even close to 3:1 if he has a set or the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]X[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
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#50
05-15-2007, 12:37 PM
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Re: Knowing your math. Basic draws.
[ QUOTE ]
we arent even close to 3:1 if he has a set or the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]X[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] The same logic applies on the flop. Would you fold there?
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