Knowing your math. Basic draws.

[Wolfram]

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No, we're losing $44.


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Nope.
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4.1:1 to hit, 40:120 to call, we need 40:164 for the call to be neutral EV, if we assume 0 implied odds and that we have 9 clean outs.

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This part is true, but for some reason you're not giving us any equity in the extra pot size.

There's 160 in the pot after we call. We win 20% of the time. We have $32 in pot equity. We paid $40 for this equity, so we lost $8 in EV.

If we were getting 120 : 30, then we would be break-even. We're overpaying $10. But we still win 20% of the overpayment pot, so we don't lose all of that.

Try this thought experiment. There's 0 in the pot. We're a dog at 49.9% to win the pot. Our opponent bets a billion. We're wrong to call anything here, but we certainly don't lose a billion dollars by making this call.

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Bah, I suck at teh maths and you're right.
But.. it's very misleading to say we're losing "only" $8. $8 is 2PTBB and if we keep making this type of call it would really cut into our winrate.

We need to be confident that we have a fair amount of implied odds, and that we're not getting ourselves in trouble with dirty outs or even drawing dead.

[mertzo]

Dubbel barrel AQ ftw, and maybe fire the river if he only calls the turn. What is up with all the nittinesh?

Last hand is a push since his line looks like a blocker. Its possible he just called the flop with a set or whatever to get the lagtard to stay in, but i doubt it. Also of course this could be something like KQss.

[Sciolist]

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Also, hand 2 I wouldn't bet the flop. Is that bad?

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WE HAVE A GUTSHOT.

Really though, I'd bet it (but I c-bet too much prob), but more like 14-15.

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I wouldn't cbet on a board like this normally... But yeh, we have a gutshot, I would cbet this hand. I think that having that extra equity makes it worthwhile.

[johnnyrocket]

1) we are getting 80-40 on our draw, or 2-1, the flush is to hit slightly less than 4-1. However, we can fold on the river UI, so if we think we can our opponent to call a bet over $80+ on the river, making our turn call 40 to win 160+, then our call is correct, if we think he will fold too often to this bet when we hit then it is correct to fold on the turn, so it is player dependent

2) a little more complex, we might only be drawing dead to the straight as our hole cards may make the villain 2 pair so we need to consider reverse implied odds, if villain bets we must call 25 to win 68, these odds are not good considering the implied odds

i see too many people just saying fold or something without good explanations, if it is checked to us here we need to consider how often we think the bet will take the pot down, if we bet 30 then we are laying 30 to win 43 so this has to work 30/73 times to be successful, we need to think of the bet sizes here and how often they will work. Then we need to consider our river line if he calls, do we fire again and if so will both bluffs be successful enough to make a profit given our odds on the pot, if we fired 30 on turn and need to fire another 80 on the river, 110 to win 43+30 that is in pot from flop and villain, then our play needs to work 110/183 to be successful, plus we need to factor in the 10% chance if we hit and get paid off. This is complex and many different scenarios can be divulged in deeper

3)I am probably folding hand, we need to call 44 to win 76+44=120, so we are gettin 120-44 on our odds, we are 4-1 to hit the straight about, a little more like 16% plus 2 spades may not be good so I will subtract an out here and give us 7, so we are a 39-7 dog here. He is nitty so I don't think we can push him off his bet here and I don't think we can make up enough ground on the river if we hit to make this profitable


Okay, so where is my prize?

[johnnyrocket]

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Thanks for the post, I'm really bad at estimating the implied odds I need at the table - what's the quickest way?

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If the pot is $40 and the bet is $20 to you but you have a 1/6 shot of winning - if you call, the pot is $80, which is four times the bet to you. You therefore need to make $40 on the river on average.

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this is incorrect sciolist, this is going to hurt ur bottom line if u dont do this math

making 40 on the river makes us 120 to the 20 we put in on the turn but 20 of that money is ours already so we can count that, we need to make 60 on the river, 120-20 here to make it correct or slightly more. You cannot count the money you put in on the turn again because you committed it and not villain.

[derosnec]

I like a 2nd barrel in hand 2 because nothing really changed on the turn.

Hands that will likely fold to good sized bet (thought 1st two hands are questionable): 8 AQ hands, 16 KQ hands, 9 AT hands, 12 QT hands, 16 98 hands and allocate about 15 combos (weighted) for stubborn pocket pairs like 99-55.

Hands that will call raise 9 AJ hands, 6 JJ, 6 TT, 6 44 hands, and 9 JT hands. I 'm assuming he doesn't trap pre with AA-QQ.

So, 76 combos he will fold versus 36 he will call/raise. Even if he calls more often on turn with drawy hands (KQ/AQ), it's still a good double barrel.

[Sweir]

*GRUNCH*

1: We probably have 9 outs, maybe less if he has a set which is possible considering he c/r the flop which isn't all that dry (maybe to charge draws). So there is 120 in the pot and we need to call 40 so were getting 3 : 1. We are 9/37 to make our hand or 4.1 : 1. We are calling 40 so need to win 165 on average to make it breakeven which means on the river we need to win 45. The pot will be 160 with 120 effective stacks. IMO we will be able to win more than 45 on average making it a +EV call.

2: I think villains range is pretty wide on the flop here because the board is pretty dry, he also seems like the kind of player that likes to float. I would probably c/r the turn here sometimes as I think he folds quite a lot, and c/c it sometimes too. This may be off though....

3: We have 8 outs so are 4.9 : 1 to make our hand. We have to call 44 so need to win 215 to make it +EV. There is 120 in the pot so we need to win 95 on the river. The pot will be 164 and the effective stacks 163. IMO villain isn't bluffing here very often and I don't think he has a draw either, unless he had something like KQss. So considering we need only to win just over a 1/2 psb on the river I think that given his range we should be able to do this, therefore I call.

Thoughts??

[dp13368]

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1) we are getting 80-40 on our draw, or 2-1, the flush is to hit slightly less than 4-1. However, we can fold on the river UI, so if we think we can our opponent to call a bet over $80+ on the river, making our turn call 40 to win 160+, then our call is correct, if we think he will fold too often to this bet when we hit then it is correct to fold on the turn, so it is player dependent


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Johnnyrocket: We are getting calling $40 for a $120 pot = 3:1 not 2:1

[David Nicoson]

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1) we are getting 80-40 on our draw, or 2-1, the flush is to hit slightly less than 4-1.

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The pot is laying us (80 + 40) : 40 = 120:40 = 3:1

[David Nicoson]

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this is incorrect sciolist, this is going to hurt ur bottom line if u dont do this math

making 40 on the river makes us 120 to the 20 we put in on the turn but 20 of that money is ours already so we can count that, we need to make 60 on the river, 120-20 here to make it correct or slightly more. You cannot count the money you put in on the turn again because you committed it and not villain.

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sciolist is using fractions of the total pots, not the ratio of losses to wins. He's correct to include the hero's call when comparing to 1/6 rather than 6:1.