CP 6/12 99 played like an idiot ?

[danspartan]

OK so hero (idiot) had just played a pot with 99, raising on button after two limpers and taking down a J high board for a small-medium size pot.

Two hands later hero has 99 in HJ.
Villians: UTG--hasn't raised anything pre-flop, even turns over KK. Will make some plays (some weird) but only on the big streets.
MP: Pretty ABC, even is studying a pre-flop hand chart he home made. Has not raised lightly.
BB: Big stack at the table. Have not seen him 3 bet pre-flop in 2 hours. In fact have only seen two on the whole table.

Hero 99 in HJ
UTG calls, MP raises, hero calls (flame away), BB 3 bets, UTG BACKRAISES to 4 bets, MP caps (5 bets at CP). Rest fold.

Hero goes into tank. Hero folds based on
1. Reads. Raise fest is out of the blue. Hero reads that two if not all three hands are over pairs.
2. Based on 3 overpairs, hero's crude math says he's approaching 10:1 against due to odds that a set of 9s wont win (30% of time?????), even at 2 overpairs chance for costly negative price of hitting and losing seems high.

Save the raise or fold lecture. Hero knows. What opinion of folding for 3 bets more to the cap?

[bernie]

Good fold.

Not sure why you think you played like an idiot.

Closer decision if you had 3 bet and it comes back to you for 2 more bets. But, as played, I'd fold given these opponents.

b

[Bob T.]

Ok, given the action so far, you are fairly confident that you are behind, and you need to make either a set, or a straight to win this hand.

So it's just an arithmatic problem now. You have to call 3 sbs, for a 17 sb pot. ( assuming everyone calls now, and I think that's safe.) In order to make a profit on this hand, you need to be able to make about 12 times you preflop investment, to pay for the times you flop good, and still lose.

So, you have to invest 3 sbs now, and so you need a return of 36 sbs to make this play worthwile. There are 17 sbs in the pot already, so you need to make 19 more postflop to get a 12-1 return.

Ok, so the pot is huge, and there won't be a lot of folding until people are convinced that they are behind.

Lets say you flop good and the flop action is three bets four ways. That's 9 more SBS.

On the turn, you go two bets three ways, or 8 more SBs you win.

And on the river you go 1 bet three ways, and you capture 4 more SBs.

If your opponents have AA, KK, and AK or something like that, you could get more action than that, before it all gets sorted out, so I think that you could call here preflop.

[MitchL]

Good fold Dan, dont mind the cc on this table.

[danspartan]

This one ended being results oriented pain. K99 flop.
Agression on the flop with the back-raise 4 better getting 3 bets in.
K on turn. BB and MP fold their declared QQ and JJ. Winner rolls AA.

So at CP, there was a 2 outer for $25K JP. Oh well. I still feel right about the fold, I don't see it any different than cold calling 3 bets with 99 only in this case I pretty much know there are at least two over pairs, so even worse.

[Bob T.]

I still don't think you necessarily should have folded.

It looks like you would have probably won about 33-37 sbs on this hand, which means that you would have theorhetically broke even on the odds for flopping a set, and that doesn't even include the jackpot chance that you had on this hand, that was worth about $700 after taxes.

[SNOWBALL]

looks good. It's hard to make up your implied odds after the flop when you pay so much preflop.