***yankees official offseason thread*****

[sylar]

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KBZ I get what your trying to say but over the next 3 years the Yanks lose like 40-50 million in salary they carried this year and past.

They add a bit more with Mo, Posada, Arod but still lose a ton esp when Damon/Abreu/Matsui are gone.

Now if you consider that the Yanks have Hughes, Kennedy, Wang, Chamberlain, Horne, Sanchez, etc in the pipeline then the Yanks won't need to spend [censored] on their pitching.
They have several prospects to fill positions in the field..if they keep building their farm system like they have been they can afford to carry a Arod, a Posada, a Mo in their last couple of decline years. Even if Arod gets hurt in year 5 and can never play again...the Yanks are fine.
They've eaten that much over the past 4 years with a [censored] farm system and have still spent like crazy. Add in the new stadium and the Yanks can take the hit if it goes bad in order to stay strong over the next 4-5 years

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losing arod to injury/suckiness for a year or two would of course suck, but this is a fair point. giambi/pettite/mussina/abreu are off the books in a year. i don't think it's even likely that abreu would return. that's over $50M. damon/matsui i think are here for 2 more. that's another $25M.

plus, i bet arod will not be the highest paid player even by year 8 of the deal, unless that language is in the contract.

[Franchise 60]

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very strong rumors from a couple different sources that a-rod will sign for 280 10 years with incentives to make it 325

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Thats seems a bit extreme considering the Yankees seem to have more leverage.

I'm not going to complain though, I had always wanted A-Rod to stay in NY, and I'm glad it seems he is back.

[sylar]

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very strong rumors from a couple different sources that a-rod will sign for 280 10 years with incentives to make it 325

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what sources? team? league? agents?

yes, the numbers are a bit higher than i expected. i also think the market even for $250M/10yr is just not there. why would the yankees offer more than that?

[Franchise 60]

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plus, i bet arod will not be the highest paid player even by year 8 of the deal, unless that language is in the contract

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I think its pretty likely he'll make more money than anyone else for the duration of his contract.

Manny is the only player signed to a multi year deal at 20 million + since 2001 right?

[sylar]

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plus, i bet arod will not be the highest paid player even by year 8 of the deal, unless that language is in the contract

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I think its pretty likely he'll make more money than anyone else for the duration of his contract.

Manny is the only player signed to a multi year deal at 20 million + since 2001 right?

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inflation FTW.

there are no $20M+ per year long term contracts. Ichiro got $18M/yr for 5 years. beltran got $18M+/yr for 7 years.

but as of 2007 season there are at least 4 players over $20M. 5 if you count Clemens. there's real possibility that the next few FA classes will boost these numbers. come on, the likes of Santana, Cabrera, Bedard, Mauer and Morneau are about to hit the market in the next 3 years. Not to mention an even bigger class of guys who could touch $10-15M+ salaries like Victor Martinez, Brian Roberts, Magglio Ordonez, Matt Holiday, Roy Halladay, Lance Berkman, Jose Reyes, Alex Rios, Houston Street, Kevin Youkilis.

[Franchise 60]

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plus, i bet arod will not be the highest paid player even by year 8 of the deal, unless that language is in the contract

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I think its pretty likely he'll make more money than anyone else for the duration of his contract.

Manny is the only player signed to a multi year deal at 20 million + since 2001 right?

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inflation FTW.

there are no $20M+ per year long term contracts. Ichiro got $18M/yr for 5 years. beltran got $18M+/yr for 7 years.

but as of 2007 season there are at least 4 players over $20M. 5 if you count Clemens. there's real possibility that the next few FA classes will boost these numbers. come on, the likes of Santana, Cabrera, Bedard, Mauer and Morneau are about to hit the market in the next 3 years. Not to mention an even bigger class of guys who could touch $10-15M+ salaries like Victor Martinez, Brian Roberts, Magglio Ordonez, Matt Holiday, Roy Halladay, Lance Berkman, Jose Reyes, Alex Rios, Houston Street, Kevin Youkilis.

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The point of my comment is that Salaries on the highest end havn't raised a great deal since A-Rod's deal. Sure there are more guys making 10 million and still grossly overpaid players but the fact that there has been one long term deal for 20 mil plus tells me that if A-Rod gets 28mil a year theres a better chance that he won't get topped than he will.

Out of all the guys you listed Santana is the only one who is def. going to get 20mil + per year for multiple years.

I could see teams going absolutely nuts over Santana, and he would be the guy who could get more money.

[sylar]

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The point of my comment is that Salaries on the highest end havn't raised a great deal since A-Rod's deal. Sure there are more guys making 10 million and still grossly overpaid players but the fact that there has been one long term deal for 20 mil plus tells me that if A-Rod gets 28mil a year theres a better chance that he won't get topped than he will.

Out of all the guys you listed Santana is the only one who is def. going to get 20mil + per year for multiple years.

I could see teams going absolutely nuts over Santana, and he would be the guy who could get more money.

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we may not resolve this until 2017, but the likes of JD Drew are making $14M/yr. there are now 50 players making $11M+ and growing. i expect those salaries go to $20M over the next 10 years. you may be right, but i'll take the over. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

how much did salaries increase from 1997 to 2007? what about 1990-1999 (to avoid the crazy year). i think it's more than 50%, even if that was helped by the srike.

[Triumph36]

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kbz your argument here stinks. i think the real question is, is a-rod's decline offset by the rise of young talent the yankees will be able to retain in future seasons by not having to trade for a miguel cabrera or similar player? and i think the answer to that almost certainly is yes. you're not considering alternatives - you're merely saying 'well 6 years down the road 1b average hitter etc. etc.', without considering the ramifications of giving up top prospects.

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the trouble is actually that YOU are only considering next year, and not the long term health of the franchise. it's not necessarily the best strategy to go full out in an attempt to win the WS every year - you need to consider the affect that dead money and dead roster spots eventually have on your ability to build a team.

the choices aren't a) bring back Arod or b) trade Joba and Hughes for Cabrera. you could sign Mike Lowell, who is a decent .300 eqa guy and + defender, for 4 years at 50% of Arod money. he won't be as good as Arod, but you also don't need to make a commitment well into someones decline years. or, you don't need to sign a big $ FA at all. you can decide that its in your best long terms interest to go with neither Arod nor Cabrera nor Lowell, and just bring back an average guys like Betemit to be your 3b. this won't win you more games next year, but it does leave you a whole lot more flexible for next year/s.

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flexible? who's coming on the market as good as a-rod? albert pujols coming UFA soon? miguel cabrera? grady sizemore?

the free agent market this off-season sucks. if the yankees don't get rodriguez, they will have nothing. signing lowell, who is due for a decline next year, and might bill mueller his way out of the league, doesn't seem any less dumb than signing alex rodriguez - it just puts his awful years right when all the other yankees FA mistakes or overpayments of the last few years are also expiring and becoming awful (damon, matsui, giambi).

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the trouble, as Nate says, is that fans are probably not willing to tolerate a rebuilding year, even though this may be the best long term decision. there is a big money team with depth & youth in your own division, and the Indians will be very bit as good as next year as well. even with with Arod back the Yankees are the 3rd best team in the AL.

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what? c'mon. i suppose that depends on pettitte and lowell, but with a full season of hughes and joba chamberlain, as well as the replacement of kyle farnsworth with edwar ramirez, cabrera and cano's improvement, the yankees figure to be better next season.

[DesertCat]

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The yankees can spend the money almost as effectively now

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This is where we have the disconnect. I don't see how the Yankees can spend $25MM-$35MM for the near future as effectively as they can on A-Rod.

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These are my thoughts, condensed [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

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Lowell + Hunter will cost about $30m per year. Lowell better defense offsets some of the lost offense, Hunters better defense and offense over Melky gives you the rest. And you can sign Lowell for four years and Hunter for probably five or six, giving you much less risk and more flexibility, i.e. More than $100m remaining to spend on another free agent like Santana during A-Rods least valuable years. Plus you the get A draft picks for A-Rod and can use Melky as trade bait.

[sylar]

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The yankees can spend the money almost as effectively now

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This is where we have the disconnect. I don't see how the Yankees can spend $25MM-$35MM for the near future as effectively as they can on A-Rod.

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These are my thoughts, condensed [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

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Lowell + Hunter will cost about $30m per year. Lowell better defense offsets some of the lost offense, Hunters better defense and offense over Melky gives you the rest. And you can sign Lowell for four years and Hunter for probably five or six, giving you much less risk and more flexibility, i.e. More than $100m remaining to spend on another free agent like Santana during A-Rods least valuable years. Plus you the get A draft picks for A-Rod and can use Melky as trade bait.

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you also lose those draft picks by signing Lowell and Hunter. both type A. we should wait and see what arod's contract actuallly is.