Identifying Beatable Games

[MickeyWins]

$8/$16....rake of $6 total ($4 rake,$1 for bad beat,$1 for dealer toke)..is this game beatable?
My Question is...is there any formula...or way of figuring out if a certain game is beatable?
using perhaps...game limits...rake...players seeing flop....game type...etc???
thank you ...

[Unknown Soldier]

no

[Voltaire]

You're getting robbed, so the game must be filled with fish. Ergo, it's beatable, but it won't last long. House is too greedy.

[TomCowley]

The rake around town (2-5 and 5-5 NL) is cap $10 at $200 +$1 for bad beat (and PLO is cap $15 at $300). It's obviously brutal, and there are only a few winners each night, but I still beat the games, and plenty of fish keep coming back.

[formula72]

With that rake size, a four dollar an hour profit would be extraordinary.

[George Rice]

There is not enough information to determine whether or not the house is greedy, as one poster put it. It depends on their overhead, and whether or not it is a legal room.

It's a four-dollar rake, which is on the high side, but not way out of line. The dollar for the bad beat is more of a concern for two reasons. First, it takes money away from all players, including winning players, and re-distributes it randomly among few players, in big chunks. A player who wins a big chunk of money will probably not put it all back into the game--he'll spend it on other things (for example, a car). Second, who's keeping an eye on the house to make sure all the money actually goes into the pool? Some places take a part of the raked dollars for 'expenses'. And some just take some of the money. Also, it's standard procedure now to keep part of the pool to seed the next bad beat. So part of the pool may never be paid, especially if the house isn't legal and subject to getting raided.

The dollar tip is standard in all games. But you may find many players tip more than that, taking even more money out of the game.

Yes, the game is beatable. If you can manage $10 per hour in the same game with the same players and a $3 rake and no bad beat, figure your rate may be reduced to about $5-$6 per hour. If it was $5 per hour, then you'll probably break even or lose a small amount.

In a house that gets many hands dealt per hour, the game won't last long without a constant influx of players. If the dealers are typical and get deal out about 40 hands per hour, the game will probably last, unless the player pool is real small, or there are a few good winning players.

[TomCowley]

I'm running a lot better than $4/hr over the 6 months I've been playing here. Plenty o' fish, I guess. If a table doesn't have a loose moron (or a few loose semi-morons), I just switch tables/games or go home. Trying to beat tight bad players (or make money on lots of small pots) for more than the rake is a waste of time. When I can play really tight (and still get some action because people are dumb), everybody else is getting brutalized by the rake while I'm folding every hand.

[formula72]

I've heard many respected players say "if Phil Ivey sat down at 3-6 with a $4 rake, he too would have a loosing year.

[George Rice]

What do you consider a fair rake for 3/6? Let's say $1 per hand.

My experience is that I need to win one hand per half hour to keep up with the blinds and rake/time is a typical loose holdem game. That's two hands per hour. Three hands per hour makes me a profit. Let's say Phil wins four hands per hour. That's $12 more per hour in rake than he would pay in a $1 raked game. So if you win an average of $12 per hour in a 3/6 game with a $1 rake, you'll break even with the $4 rake, all else being the same.

I can do better than that in 3/6 with the $1 rake. I'm sure Phil can do better still, maybe $15-$18 per hour. So he would make at least $3-$6 per hour in the $4 rake game.

Years ago a respected gambling authority named Oswald Jacoby published a book on poker. In it, he stated that poker played in cards rooms was unbeatable, because of the house drop. He wasn't even close to being right.

[MickeyWins]

$8/$16 with a $4+$2 rake.....is perhaps beatable for $5 a hour....if the players are bad. (perhaps true)
I will try some numbers...see if you agree.
A good tight player plays 20% of his starting hands.
A normal dealer deals 35 hands and hour.
The good player is seeing the flop 7 times an hour.
he hits the flop 1/3 times. so he is winning MAYBE 2 hands an hour.
he is paying 3.5 times the blinds to play ($6 x3.5=$21)
the good player must make up $21 per hour (blinds) plus two rakes of $12....or $33 in two hands per hour to break even. so he needs a profit of $16.50 per hand (he wins) to break even.
thats one big bet. so ..
YOU NEED MISTAKES (by the other players) THAT TOTAL ATLEAST ONE BIG BET PER HAND TO BREAK EVEN. AND 2 BIG BETS TO MAKE ONE BIG BET PER HOUR PROFIT.
I think that is hard to come by. first off...the "mistakes by other players"...are never full ev mistakes....cause they ussually have some outs to even the worst of calls.
any more thoughts????