NL CHAMPIONS

aal113086 · #1 08-12-2006, 01:57 PM

How juicy does 17/1 seem for the astros?... jus put 50 bucks on it... thinking about doing a bit more

Clemens Pettite Oswalt..... how worried about lidge should i be?

Interested in any and all thoughts

lastchance · #2 08-12-2006, 02:03 PM

I don't think this is a good bet. They have a 22% chance of reaching the postseason, according to BP. Of those, they win the first round about 50% of the time, and win the second round far less of the time. Offense is crap still.

.22*.5*.5 (at best) = 5.5% of reaching the postseason.

17/1 odds put the Astros as better than that, so I don't think this is a good bet.

aal113086 · #3 08-12-2006, 02:56 PM

22% chance to make the playoffs????? they are by far the best team in wild card contention... also they have a better chance of winning the second round (winner of cardinals nl west series) then the first round were they would play the mets.... where are u getting these ridiculous stats..... I would put them at %70 to make the playoffs... the last two seasons they have finished veery very strong, and this year clemens shouldn't burn out since he jus skipped the beginning of the season... THe mets would be an interesting series... the astros have such a pitching advantage, especially in a 5 game series... (i put them at about 50 percent to beat the mets... and then vs. the cardinals-nl west i put them at about 60% to advance

.7*.5*.6= 21%

TheRover · #4 08-12-2006, 03:37 PM

70% lolol

Do you not see that they are behind three teams for the Wild Card? They probably have a better chance of winning their division, which isn't very big either.

Josh W · #5 08-12-2006, 06:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
22% chance to make the playoffs????? they are by far the best team in wild card contention... also they have a better chance of winning the second round (winner of cardinals nl west series) then the first round were they would play the mets.... where are u getting these ridiculous stats..... I would put them at %70 to make the playoffs... the last two seasons they have finished veery very strong, and this year clemens shouldn't burn out since he jus skipped the beginning of the season... THe mets would be an interesting series... the astros have such a pitching advantage, especially in a 5 game series... (i put them at about 50 percent to beat the mets... and then vs. the cardinals-nl west i put them at about 60% to advance

.7*.5*.6= 21%

[/ QUOTE ]

Wait. You have assigned some percentages (quite possibly absurd, especially the 70%). You can do the math to tell that your percentages easily justify the bet. You laugh at (quite possibly the best) industry expert (BP) who gives different numbers....

Why did you post this?

Josh

KJL · #6 08-12-2006, 07:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
.22*.5*.5 (at best) = 5.5% of reaching the postseason.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is probably going to be a stupid question but I'm fairly new to sportsbetting and really don't bet futures. According to this the odds that the astros get to the nl champinship series are about 8-1. If the astros get this far you could easily scalp with the series price. So the odds really only need to be better than 8-1 to make this a good bet? Obviously this is wrong because the book wouldn't be this off but I'm wondering why
thanks

SuperUberBob · #7 08-12-2006, 07:50 PM

The Mets will win. Any bet on any other team is a losing bet.

aal113086 · #8 08-12-2006, 09:09 PM

they are the best team... they are a game and a half behind the wild card..... i would assume they are the favorite to win the wildcard... pitching pitching pitching my friends.. the reds are garbage and they are barely behind them.... the astros weren't quite as good last season and the leauge was stronger YET they made it to the world series

aal113086 · #9 08-12-2006, 09:11 PM

why will the mets win... they're pitching staff looks so atrocious it's a joke... they might win, infact they have a good chance... but they are no shoe in

RitmoEnElCaos · #10 08-13-2006, 01:45 AM

Interesting discussion here. I consider myself an expert on the Astros having watched just about every game since 1986. That also makes me biased. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

The pitching is coming around, and so is the hitting. Taveras is on a 14-game hitting streak. Biggio hit 4HR this week. Berkman is in the top 10 in almost every offensive category. Huff is doing ok. They sent Preston Wilson down. Dude was a K machine. Ensberg is back from the DL. He is notoriously streaky and has been down since April. I think he may be coming around. Luke Scott is hitting over .400. Ausmus sucks.

The Astros are at least a 50% chance to win the wild card. They will not go to the WS this year because of the bullpen, plain and simple. Go ahead and bet the Astros, and hedge once they make the playoffs.