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#21
07-21-2007, 07:40 PM
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Re: drawing hand
[ QUOTE ]
Here is my further analysis. Flop (This assume you don't c/r): It's 8SBs to you on the flop. I give you only 3.5 discounted outs (2 twos, 1.5 aces due to diamonds and reverse dom). So you have just over 7% chance to make your hand, yet you're putting in 12% of the pot. Fold Turn: One clean two left, 1.5 for the aces, and 3 clean 3 for 5.5 outs. You make your hand about 12% of the time. It's 8 sbs to you so I guess this is barely a call. I suck at making decisions before doing the calcs. [/ QUOTE ] Mr Befolder...on the flop i count up the outs a little different... 1 for the overcard A, 1 for the backdoor flush draw in spades, 3 for the gut shot draw (just 3 with two diamonds on the flop and we are drawing to the low end)...i usually give no weight to undercard as i am likely behind even if i pair it...with 5 outs i would call if i thought the pot would be 10 times the amount i will put in on the round... did i miscount or overvalue something here? 
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#23
07-22-2007, 09:41 AM
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Re: drawing hand
[ QUOTE ]
wasting money here.the "outs" that you are chasing could give someone a bigger hand. [/ QUOTE ] so anytime your draw isnt to the nuts you fold solid.
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#24
07-22-2007, 09:49 AM
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Re: drawing hand
[ QUOTE ]
Here is my further analysis. Flop (This assume you don't c/r): It's 8SBs to you on the flop. I give you only 3.5 discounted outs (2 twos, 1.5 aces due to diamonds and reverse dom). So you have just over 7% chance to make your hand, yet you're putting in 12% of the pot. Fold Turn: One clean two left, 1.5 for the aces, and 3 clean 3 for 5.5 outs. You make your hand about 12% of the time. It's 8 sbs to you so I guess this is barely a call. I suck at making decisions before doing the calcs. [/ QUOTE ] too stingy on the outs ace outs 1.5 straight outs 3 bdfd outs 1.5 total outs = 6. easy call.
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#25
07-22-2007, 11:01 AM
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Re: drawing hand
[ QUOTE ]
Maybe it was an out of position freecard play (some players will check turn with one pair to avoid a double checkraise) [/ QUOTE ] Against 4 people I wouldn't count on it, nevermind the possibility that one of them improves which is often. I dislike every street except pf.
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#26
07-23-2007, 10:54 AM
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Re: drawing hand
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Here is my further analysis. Flop (This assume you don't c/r): It's 8SBs to you on the flop. I give you only 3.5 discounted outs (2 twos, 1.5 aces due to diamonds and reverse dom). So you have just over 7% chance to make your hand, yet you're putting in 12% of the pot. Fold Turn: One clean two left, 1.5 for the aces, and 3 clean 3 for 5.5 outs. You make your hand about 12% of the time. It's 8 sbs to you so I guess this is barely a call. I suck at making decisions before doing the calcs. [/ QUOTE ] Mr Befolder...on the flop i count up the outs a little different... 1 for the overcard A, 1 for the backdoor flush draw in spades, 3 for the gut shot draw (just 3 with two diamonds on the flop and we are drawing to the low end)...i usually give no weight to undercard as i am likely behind even if i pair it...with 5 outs i would call if i thought the pot would be 10 times the amount i will put in on the round... did i miscount or overvalue something here? [/ QUOTE ] As you can see, I missed the outs for the BDFD completely which should be another 1.5.
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