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#11
04-29-2007, 04:33 AM
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Re: Amazon (AMZN) jumps from $40 to $62
Yeh id say this isnt a bad short. I mean it could still be dangerous, but I think its defintely +EV in the long run. No way Amazon went up 50% in net worth just from a better than average earnings report.
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#13
04-29-2007, 11:41 AM
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Re: Amazon (AMZN) jumps from $40 to $62
[ QUOTE ]
You are saying it's a short, you never once even make an attempt to state what it is worth. [/ QUOTE ] Trick question [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]? FWIW, I would try to look at Amazon Prime's revenue history to get an idea about the company's revenue ever since Prime launched. I don't know much about Prime but when it first came out, I thought Amazon was a genius. You get to report a year of revenue on the quarter Prime is purchased; it also increase sales because everyone loves express free shipping. Let's not forget those who forget they have Prime or are too lazy to cancel it after the free-trial period [the porn/aol subscription syndrome]. From there, you can start guessing whether it is correct to short and at what price.
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#14
04-29-2007, 01:25 PM
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Re: Amazon (AMZN) jumps from $40 to $62
This stock jumped because of a short squeeze.
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#15
04-29-2007, 09:46 PM
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Re: Amazon (AMZN) jumps from $40 to $62
[ QUOTE ]
Supposedly they're music store plans on selling DRM free music. That could be pretty big. [/ QUOTE ] I dont see how this warrants such a jump. Anyone have anymore details on this? Record companies have been hesistant to get into bed with a lot of companies looking to open online music stores. If all amazons appeal is offering DRM free it seems pretty crazy theyd rush to them unless amazon is offering them a huge margin.
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#16
04-30-2007, 12:13 AM
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Re: Amazon (AMZN) jumps from $40 to $62
amazon are ramping up their efforts to capitalize on their substantial infrastructure. s3, ec2 and sqs. early indications are they're going to be a huge success.
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#17
04-30-2007, 05:33 AM
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Re: Amazon (AMZN) jumps from $40 to $62
Put yourself on the other side of the trade. Assume you are a holder of AMZN and it suddenly appreciates by about 50%.
Are you selling any? When? Why? If any, how much? http://www.investopedia.com/articles...BInsideDay.asp
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#18
04-30-2007, 08:49 AM
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Re: Amazon (AMZN) jumps from $40 to $62
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Supposedly they're music store plans on selling DRM free music. That could be pretty big. [/ QUOTE ] I dont see how this warrants such a jump. Anyone have anymore details on this? Record companies have been hesistant to get into bed with a lot of companies looking to open online music stores. If all amazons appeal is offering DRM free it seems pretty crazy theyd rush to them unless amazon is offering them a huge margin. [/ QUOTE ] Just rumors, but still interesting. I agree it's probably not the reason for the huge jump. http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/200...ic-service.html http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/200...ths-on-drm.html
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#19
05-01-2007, 12:54 AM
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Re: Amazon (AMZN) jumps from $40 to $62
[ QUOTE ]
Put yourself on the other side of the trade. Assume you are a holder of AMZN and it suddenly appreciates by about 50%. Are you selling any? When? Why? If any, how much? [/ QUOTE ] Oh yeah. If I was long this turd I would dump a third asap. I would dump the rest when I saw a technical sell signal.
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#20
05-02-2007, 01:55 AM
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Re: Amazon (AMZN) jumps from $40 to $62
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, my guess is it might not correct down for a few quarters ... if I want to make this play what's the best vehicle for making a bet against it? [/ QUOTE ] If you think it will go back down to 40 within a few qurters then buy the long term puts. WEW MH (2008 Jan 40.00 Put) or VON MH (2009 Jan 40.00 Put)
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