PokerFink's NFC Rankings (Week 10)

PokerFink · #1 11-15-2007, 06:54 AM

My apologies for last week - I was in Los Angeles checking out the cash games at the Commerce, which are as amazing as advertised. Not much happened last week in the rankings - the top seven remained unchanged, while New Orleans vaulted into the eight spot, moving Carolina and Arizona down one spot each. Minnesota and Chicago also flip-flopped, but they flip-flopped back this week. So that's what happened from Week 8 to Week 9, and then the movement this week represents from Week 9 to Week 10.

Disclaimer: My rankings are NOT a traditional power rankings. They are projective, meaning we are ranking based on where teams will finish. Rankings are done based on the playoff guidelines, meaning the division winners get the top four seeds. For a full explanation, please see this post. Also, when I list a team's NFL rank, it's based on DVOA unless otherwise noted.

[/b] 1. DALLAS (8-1) : There's always talk on this board about the fungibility of running backs - and in all honesty, I thought it applied to wide receivers as well. But the more I watch Terrell Owens and Randy Moss (or watch the Colts without Harrison and Clark), the more I realize that isn't true. The NFL is a passing league, and a dominant receiver makes a world of difference. As good as Brian Westbrook is, the best year the Eagles had was with Terrell Owens. So kudos to TO for being on good behavior and putting up a monster season. NEXT: vs. Washington.

 2. GREEN BAY (8-1) : Green Bay's problem all year has been the running game, so you would expect them to really get shut down on the ground against Minnesota, right? Wrong. Enter Ryan Grant, an undrafted rookie from Notre Dame, who racked up 119 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries against the league's third best rush defense. NEXT: vs. Carolina.

 3. TAMPA BAY (5-4) : Not a bad week for Tampa: sit back, enjoy the late bye, and watch Carolina lose to Atlanta and New Orleans lose to St. Louis. NEXT: @ Atlanta.

 4. SEATTLE (5-4) : Ok, so maybe Maurice Morris (28 - 87 - 3.1avg - 1td - 1fum) isn't much better than Alexander, but he certainly isn't any worse. NEXT: vs. Chicago.

 5. NEW YORK (6-3) : New York's great pass rush (ranked 2nd in the NFL) is the only thing covering up the week secondary. But it's not as effective against a mobile quarterback like Tony Romo. Neutralize the pass rush, and you neutralize the New York defense. NEXT: @ Detroit.

 6. WASHINGTON (5-4) : The offense moved effectively, utilizing a nice mix of runs, short throws and play action. Jason Campbell (23/34 - 215 - 3 - 0) looked great, and even got the wide receivers involved. They finally threw the ball in the red zone and converted touchdowns. But it was the defense that let them down - the Skins simply had no answer for Brian Westbrook. NEXT: @ Dallas.

 7. DETROIT (6-3) : Aveion Cason: 1 carry, 1 yard. TJ Duckett: 1 carry, 0 yards. Jon Kitna: 1 carry, 0 yards. Kevin Jones: 4 carries, -4 yards (and a touchdown!). Shaun McDonald: 1 carry, -15 yards, and a fumble. Ladies and Gentleman, the 2007 Detroit Lions Running Game. NEXT: vs. New York Giants.

 8. ARIZONA (4-5) *UP 2* : Not only to fantasy owners have to deal with goal-line running backs, now they have to deal with goal-line quarterbacks. Over the past two games, Tim Rattay is 2/2 for 3 yards and 2 touchdowns. By the way, with Atlanta, St. Louis and San Francisco remaining on the schedule, Arizona has a real chance to turn this season into something. NEXT: @ Cincinnati.

 9. NEW ORLEANS (4-5) *DOWN 1* : Just how bad is the pass defense? According to PAR, Marc Bulger's performance ranked as the third best of the week, behind only Favre and McNabb. But when you adjust for opponent (DPAR), Bulger's performance drops all the way to 10th, after Quinn Gray and Joey Harrington. Overall, the Saints rank 31st against the pass - only the Jets are worse. In fact, they're so bad, they're significantly worse than Cleveland. NEXT: @ Houston.

 10. PHILADELPHIA (4-5) *UP 1* : It was a vintage day for Donovan McNabb, who ran the ball five times for 39 yards. Four of his five runs converted a first down, and the other was a valuable 9-yard gain on first down. Also, kudos to Andy Reid for going for it on 4th and inches from the Eagles own 39 in the 3rd quarter. We all know this should be standard, but it's not, and Reid deserves credit for the gamble because it's his head on the chopping block if it fails. The Eagles converted and went on to score a touchdown on the drive. NEXT: vs. Miami.

 11. CAROLINA (4-5) *DOWN 2* : Every few weeks, someone unexpected puts up a big stat line. Sometimes, it's a predictor of future success (see: Derek Anderson). Usually, it's not. Which brings us to Vinny Testaverde. In his first game (week 6 against Arizona), Vinny was 20/33 - 203 - 1td - 0int. In his last two games, Vinny was 25/48 - 235 - 0 - 0. We all knew Carolina would struggle with their second half schedule, but the easy spots against the likes of Atlanta and San Francisco were supposed to keep them in the hunt. So much for that. NEXT: @ Green Bay.

 12. CHICAGO (4-5) *UP 1* : Sexy Rexy unleashing the dragon to Berrian - oh what a sight for sore eyes. With Griese hurt, the Bears will turn to Rexy full time, although Lovie swears that the decision is less about Griese's injury and more about "playing the quarterback that gives us the best chance to win." Like I need to comment on that. NEXT: @ Seattle.

 13. MINNESOTA (3-6) *DOWN 1* : Get healthy soon, Mr. ROY. By the way, has anyone else heard Rich Eisen say Adrian Peterson? Adrian PUHHHHHHHHHH-ETERSON. Love that. NEXT: vs. Oakland.

 14. ATLANTA (3-6) : Joey Harrington completed 19 of 26 passes for 192 yards and the game winning touchdown with 20 seconds left, giving Atlanta a two game winning streak. And what did all of that earn him? A spot on the bench. Atlanta will turn to Byron Leftwich again this week, even though Leftwich has shown nothing in limited time this year. More evidence that Atlanta is tanking? NEXT: vs. Tampa Bay.

 15. ST. LOUIS (1-8) *UP 1* : With San Fran up next, can you say, two game winning streak? NEXT: @ San Francisco.

 16. SAN FRANCISCO (2-7) *DOWN 1* : A few weeks ago, I made a poll asking the worst team in football. I included the Niners, which prompted someone to ask if it was a joke. I don't think anyone is laughing now. I've been saying it for weeks now - this is the worst team in football. EDIT: San Fran is so [censored] bad, they're dogs this week. At home. Against a 1-8 team. [b] NEXT: vs. St. Louis.