NLHE Implied odds for playing pocket pairs for set value

[student_of_game]

Hi,

I was wondering if anyone can point me to a calculation for the implied odds to play a pocket pair (pre-flop) for set value. I'm interested in situations where you are either calling a raise pre-flop or perhaps you raise and get 3-bet and are deciding whether to call (in cases where effective stacks are not deep).

I know that odds of a pocket pair flopping a set are about 7.5:1. However, there are a few important factors when determining if you have implied odds to call pre-flop when playing for set value:

1) You may hit a set and still lose (e.g., set over set on the flop or your opponent catches up by the turn or river, or your opponent plays some speculative hand that connects with the board).

2) You may hit a set and not get paid off (e.g., your opponent has missed overs, your opponent can fold an overpair, or your opponent raises or 3-bets speculative hands pre-flop and misses the flop).

I figured this is the kind of thing someone must have worked out before, but I couldn't find info. Is there some "accepted" implied odds value before calling can even be considered correct? (e.g., 10:1 or something along those lines?) I know the correct value depends on your opponent's tendencies, so a lower bound is what I'm after.

[saskaman]

3 things to consider when set mining:

1. How much money does he have? I like at least 80BBs
2. How much money do you have? Play with a full stack.
3. Will he pay off when you hit, with his big overpair?

I suppose you could add extra opponents and your call would be that much easier. 3 bet pots get tricky.

[Adrian20XX]

Hi,

I've analyzed the "Equity from playing a small pair against a big pair" in this post: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showth...e=2#Post9343754

It considers all the possible cases on the flop (set against overpair, set against set, and so on), and the equity you have on which case that is contemplating the equity from the redraws.

If you are lazy, to read it all, the number I've got to get to be EV+ is 9.50 the bet you are facing.

Regards ...

[Albert Moulton]

The 5/10 rule is generally a good rule of thumb when calling a raise for set value.

Easy call if the raise is less than 5% of effective stacks (whichever is less, your stack or the raiser's stack).

Easy fold if the raise is more than 10% of effective stacks.

Make a judgement call to either call or fold between 5% and 10% of effetive stacks. Sometimes call, sometimes fold. It depends on your position, your cards, who you are up against, number of others in the pot, etc.

So, in a 100bb game where all players have 100bb, if a raise is to 4bb, then it is an easy call (4%).

If a raise is to 12bb, then it is an easy fold (12%).

If a raise is 7bb, then you have to use your judgement whether to call or fold (7%).