22$ HU SNG: Tough decission with TPwk + low 4 flushdraw

[Gesangsverein]

Hi!

We are about 15 hands into the tourney. Villain is playing very aggressive. I have folded all but one hand so far (only [censored] on the botton and nothing worth calling a 5-7 big blind raise OOP) in which I raised and won the blinds.

Now what do you think about:
- my call preflop?
- my push on the flop?


Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t10/t20
2 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (2 players) hero is SB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">hero raises to t80</font>, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises to t140</font>, hero calls t60 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t220)</font>.

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (t280, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets t360</font>, <font color="#cc0000">hero raises all-in t1260</font>, BB calls t900 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t1900)</font>.

Turn: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (t2800, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: t2800)


River: 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (t2800, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: t2800)


Results (in white below):
Final pot: t2800


<font color="white"> Seat 1: b8r7 (button) (small blind) showed [7d 8c] and won (2800) with two pair, Eights and Sevens
Seat 2: riverking99 (big blind) showed [9d 9h] and lost with a pair of Nines</font>

[ghettointlectual]

You didnt ask this, but I think you should be raising a wider range PF, look back a couple of weeks for a post about dealing with a maniac and you will find one of the better posters here saying that by raising a lot from the button the maniac is playing close to optimally.

Now to your questions:
I don't like the call because we have no steal equity and the stacks are too shallow to call in the hopes of making a hand.

On the flop I think that its standard, easy AI push for me.

[ChicagoRy]

I call here preflop you have the odds and you're deep enough.

I play flop same way as well I think, this sort of villain is leading out every flop unless he really hits (I doubt he leads a flush here like ever). As played your shove is fine IMO.

[hra146]

I mostly agree with preposters.

Whats up with the 4x preflop raise though? Any specific reason for doing so? Especially vs. very aggressive players you may wanna control potsizes from early on.

[derosnec]

i would fold at the two opportunities that your opponent gave you. if you disagree, it's probably because you are putting your opponent on an incorrect range. play with poker stove, think about the fact that 15 hands are nothing, keep in mind you are at the 22s, look at odds of you hitting certain hands on certain flops with 87o, and do some equity calcs. i think when you do that you will see that you could have, and should have, avoided this situation.

let me put it this way about preflop. imagine you can't see your cards. now you're faced with a 3bet, albeit a small one. now, what does that mean? it means, your positional advantage has been compromised and your postflop steal equity has dwindled. if he had only called preflop, then you generally have a lot of postflop steal equity where you can c-bet almost any flop and pick up the pot. but now, you will likely face a cbet, meaning to steal you will have to put in your entire stack against a likely strong range. so . . . given that, it would mean that you would need one of two types of hole cards to call the pf 3bet: 1) a premium hand or 2) a non-dominated hand that flops big a decent % of the time so you can make a +EV play on the flop. 87o is not that hand.

[soop]

Call preflop, Push on the flop. I think you played it well.

Derosnec - I'm putting him on a pretty tight range as he's reraising someone who's obviously been playing tight and I still think they're both calls.

---MATH---

I'm giving him the range AA,AK. I'm sure there are more hands but basically I'm saying he has roughly this proportion of big card hands to big pairs. Adding more hands won't change the results and will just make things more complicated.

Preflop:
I've been waiting for a hand like this to use Phil's awesome Flopalyzer tool.
Flopalyzer 78o vs. AA,AK

You are ahead a little over 20% of the time on the flop. You are getting roughly 5-1. Seems like a call.

This ignores a lot of important stuff like position and implied odds, but I think they roughly cancel each other out.

Flop:
Let's say he bets all hands and calls with AA,and AK if he has a club. He folds AK no club. So he calls with 6 combos of AA and 7 combos of AK. He folds 9 combos of AK. This means he calls ~60% of the time

You have ~60% equity against the entire range and ~40% against calling hands.

Here's the EV calc:

Action (Likelihood) Outcome EV
He folds (40%) +640 +256
He calls and you win (24%) +2800 +672
He calls and you lose (36%) -2800 -1008

So you expect to lose 80 chips on average. You lose more if you fold. Thus it's a call.

---END MATH---

[Conspiracy]

meh, I think you have to go with it. Not all that fun but still [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Make it 60 pf btw.

[derosnec]

[ QUOTE ]
You are ahead a little over 20% of the time on the flop. You are getting roughly 5-1. Seems like a call.

[/ QUOTE ]

if we only put him on AA/AK, ok, but obviously we're not going to do that. with 87o in a rr pot, there's only a small number of flops we will see that will give us confidence that we are making a +EV decision. the rest of the flops will suck for making decision. Flop comes 726r. Flop comes Qc8c4h. Flop comes 345. 89T. J74. etc. You'er only getting a 3 club flop with top pair a miniscule % of time. Same with trips/straights/two pair.

If this was limit holdem, then ok.

[soop]

Yeah maybe you're right. AA,AK isn't really that tight a range now that I think about it. AA-99,AK,AQ would make it a fold preflop.