ATo 109r FT dilemma

[mastr]

whoa, this is way better then an even gamble. I'm expecting us to have him crushed here a lot. What do you have his range on betgo? 5-handed with an M of 4

[Bakes]

if you've been stealing with any regularity i fold this, but if people have been prty active with resteals, etc i would call.

[TheNewf]

I agree with fold. We're not that far ahead of his range and there's too many people behind us that can wake up with a hand.

[Eagles]

I call this pretty quickly.

[Eagles]

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You are significantly ahead of pot odds against UTG's range, but if you call you have to play against anyone else else for all your chips, and someone else my have you dominated. As chip leader at final table, you do not want to gamble. Very easy fold.

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i think this is what i'm(or maybe you) are confused about.

is it more worth it to take this gamble on a shorter stack? if so, why?

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I think the call is somewhat cEV- because someone else may have a hand that dominates you.

As chip leader at the final table, an even gamble is $EV- due to payout structure.

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This is not an even gamble it's massively +ev.

[Pudge714]

If villain has any concept of correct pushbotting this call is pretty clearly +CEV.

[betgo]

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whoa, this is way better then an even gamble. I'm expecting us to have him crushed here a lot. What do you have his range on betgo? 5-handed with an M of 4

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You are ahead of pusher plus pot odds. However, there is about a 8% chance one of the other 2 players has JJ-AA or AK, in which case they push, and they have more chips than UTG.

[WarDekar]

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whoa, this is way better then an even gamble. I'm expecting us to have him crushed here a lot. What do you have his range on betgo? 5-handed with an M of 4

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You are ahead of pusher plus pot odds. However, there is about a 8% chance one of the other 2 players has JJ-AA or AK, in which case they push, and they have more chips than UTG.

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I agree with betgo here, and am pretty surprised others disagree so much. I don't like enterring this immediately to his left, if you were in SB I'd say sure go for it. But you aren't, and getting called by anyone else and you are gonna be dominated and you will be creating a monster instead of becoming one. The risk of that happening far outweighs any advantage you have in picking up some more chips. You have a decent CL, you can use it to far better use than risking it right here.

[mastr]

I don't think that outweighs the +EV we gain, we should run it through some quick numbers, but I'm really curious what's your range that you need to go with it here. Are you thinking TT+ AQ+ ? That seems really tight to me but approx what you want

[Sherman]

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I don't think that outweighs the +EV we gain, we should run it through some quick numbers, but I'm really curious what's your range that you need to go with it here. Are you thinking TT+ AQ+ ? That seems really tight to me but approx what you want

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I think everyone agrees that it is +cEV to call. But this is the final table. The ONLY real time in a tournament where cEV does not approximate $EV. That is the major consideration here.

OP has a 2:1 chiplead on 2nd place. Also, I think his stack gives him a psychological advantage as well. I don't think that picking up 90K in chips here is worth as much $ as losing 90K in chips b/c of what it does to Hero's stacksize. If he picks up the 90K, I don't think that gains as many $s as not losing 90K.

Beyond that, I still might call if Hero were closing the action. But with players still to act, I'd just fold here.