Tourney situation. Omaha version of classic Holdem AA question

[chucky]

25 ppl left in tourney. 24 are paid. I am 20th in chips. 4 ppl are under 10k. Does anyone fold? 19th-24th get paid 33 bucks. I invested 5.50 in the tourney.

Poker Stars
Pot Limit Omaha Tournament
Blinds: t600/t1200
5 players
Converter


Stack sizes:
UTG: t21265
CO: t38015
Button: t11792
Hero: t20860
BB: t96629


Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is SB with 2c Th Ah Ac
UTG folds, CO raises to t4200, Button folds, Hero raises to t13800, BB folds, CO raises to t23400, Hero calls all-in t7060.
Uncalled bets: t2540 returned to CO.


Flop: 3h Qs 5c (t42920, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: t42920)



Turn: 4d (t42920, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: t42920)



River: 6d (t42920, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: t42920)

[chucky]

The villian is a major insane donk. He has blown chips on top pair and other horrible hands several times while i have been sitting here. His raises are meaningless. Big stacks in this tourney do garbage raises all the time preflop, and in last 10 hands he blew 20k plus in chips.

[JavaNut]

[ QUOTE ]
The villian is a major insane donk. He has blown chips on top pair and other horrible hands several times while i have been sitting here. His raises are meaningless. Big stacks in this tourney do garbage raises all the time preflop, and in last 10 hands he blew 20k plus in chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

Given this read on your opponent and the fact that you only need to get to #18 to move up in prizes, you are risking $33 to win $60+ and being in good position to win even more with somedthing that looks at least 75/25 in your favor (not the hand which is good but not a monster, but the hand combined with the fact your opponent seems to be tilting heavily). Push.

Against a player who has been playing solidly and sound over the last hands, you have not got first in vigor, which is important in tourneys, if you raise back at him you risk more than you win by folding him, then you'll need to be 75/25 (or 70/30 or thereabouts) to win against a good solid range of hands, which you are not quite with AAds.

Against a short stack, that will not prevent you from folding into the money if you lose this hand, again push as you are not risking the $33.

[Phanekim]

actually against random hands it was like 68.5% and against this certain hand it was 71.5%

[chucky]

Actually pay out is at 24. 25 players left. I have aads. How is this hand not a monster. The only better hands are AA two pair ds and aaqt/aaqj ds.

[JavaNut]

[ QUOTE ]
Actually pay out is at 24. 25 players left. I have aads. How is this hand not a monster. The only better hands are AA two pair ds and aaqt/aaqj ds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very few hands are really monsters in Omaha in the same way that they might be in Hold'em. There are 5 cards to come.

Against a random hand it is 61%, against the specific hand it was 75% (might be wrong, as I didn't double check before typing) against a decent hand range from a decent player it is less than 61%, that is why in that situation it is not a monster. What makes Hold'em hands monsters is the capability to dominate, which is not really that important in Omaha. In a cash game you'll have sufficient edge to push with this hand, but in tourneys don't always go for the smaller edges, that is my point.

[chucky]

Against random it is 68%. It was 71% versus specific hand. I agree with your point. The other posters have repeatedly driven home the point that this is very high equity hand, and victory in hand makes deep stack play(By Tourney Standards) a possibility against donks, who spew chips.
My feeling is I would fold this hand 8 times out of 10 in tourney scenario where I am at bubble. To make this worse, I actually revealed my hand to villian b4 my raise and he still pushed. I was amazed that only one poster other than Phanekim, ever said that initial fold is correct play.

EV break down in my head in real cash terms are:
Allin has total Ev of 40 bucks profit assuming average finish of 2nd to last table if i win pot and nothing if I lose. This was based on 66% equity because I gave villian slightly better hand than reality dictated.
Folding is probably profit of 35 bucks. 90% chance I money if I fold, most of that time tables 3 and 4.

The better overall opponents in field are, the better this push is in my opinion.

[piiop]

when i read the title, i assumed there was going to be like a 5-way allin preflop or something and then i can say you could fold.

yet i see you're HU with doublesuited aces. of course you should reraise and get it allin. go for #1

[chucky]

Even though i can fold to money?

[piiop]

do you want to win the tournament or squeak into a 20some dollar profit?