250 BB 50/100 HU Tricky River Spot

[evanski]

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I understand that you arent ahead of a ton of hands he is value betting, and he isnt bluffing a ton, but look at it from villains perspective.

You flatted preflop, then just called on a flop with a spade draw and ace or whatever. He doesnt figure you can have AQ or AA since you flatted preflop (i dont know you so maybe you can smooth call AQ or AA preflop, but most villains in at higher stakes will take that out of your range) so he figures the best hand you can have is 33 or maybe some weird Q9 or Qx hand. I would say Q9 is the best possible hand you can show up with given earlier action in his eyes. If you can't have the top two or three hands in your range here and he is aware of his image, a bluff here becomes much more likely.

no one can say if he is on that level, but if my opponent was close to this rationale i think i call. This would assume he is capable of turning some made hands into bluffs as well as bluffing missed draws (they all missed i could see him def having like J10s or something). One more thing to consider is that he was up to 50k, and as now down to 25k or whatever. Whenever players that you don't recognize as regulars experience those swings, they are more likely to over value hands or shove in bluffs or semi bluffs to try to desperately regain control of the match. I'd call.

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This is pretty much exactly what went through my head and I think really solid analysis. I think against a trickier opponent whos capable of thinking at that level I would have an easier time talking myself into a call. Thing is, I didnt really think this guy was. I dunno, sometimes its hard for me to figure out exactly how hard my opponent is thinking about stuff, particularly since a lot of moves hu seem to map to 1st level thinking and 12th level thinking, something Ive always found kind of amusing (ie, Im going to raise huge, no way he can call! vs what you just said).

I think the 50k to 25k point is very valid though, and it wasnt something I thought of at the time.

[_Gabe_]

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Looks like AA/AQ to me. Once you lead the turn he sees the potential for a big hand and knows it's unlikely you have spades - would you c/c flop and lead river w/ a spade draw?

The queen on the river could easily have filled you up and he's going for max value. Your turn/river lines are way too strong to call here imo.

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Busted spades are definitely in my range here, as are air/near air hands.

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I addressed that in my second post...if he puts you on busted spades then isn't he calling (not raising) w/most of his range?

[xorbie]

The problem with folding is that if we put AA/AQ in villains range, you have to at least say that 33/99 are going to be a decent part of his range. There's also one more Q9 you split with, Q3 if he's that sorta dude.

You took a really wierd line for either AA or AQ. The main problem is just you don't know how much this guy is actually thinking about that sort of thing; his line looks a lot like "I has the nuts, I push". I don't think this is a straight up bluff very often at all, you just have to figure out how often "the nuts" is actually not as good as what you have here.

There are 3 AA, 3 AQ, 3 99, 2 Q9, 3 Q3, 3 33.

Pot is laying you a decent but not great price, try to figure out how often he has those, how often that he has those he plays it this way, etc.

Seems close, I guess I like a fold and "wait for a better spot"... hopefully this guy goes on tilt if he did have AA here.

[Ansky]

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The problem with folding is that if we put AA/AQ in villains range, you have to at least say that 33/99 are going to be a decent part of his range.

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No you don't. Why do you think that?

[imabigdeal]

i think he is never bluffing here, but would he really make that massive shove with 33 or 99? what could he expect to get paid off by?

[berserk]

[ QUOTE ]
"i has a boat hu, call"


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[evanski]

Thanks for all the replies. On the river I timed down and went through the thought process: "this is the best hand I can realistically have in this spot, I would have guessed that he wouldnt flat aa or aq on the turn although Im obviously not sure, maybe hes doing something spewy" and I called.

Having thought about it for a few days I think it should have been a fold, although I think its pretty close. I think that very few people are going to go for value with worse hands than mine with this line. However, since he probably doesnt play aq and aa this way anywhere close to 100% of the time, he has to be getting out of line with busted draws and other stuff a really small percentage of the time to make me +EV against his range.

Even so, I think its a little optimistic to think that this guy shows up busted draws more than once in a blue moon. I dont think this guy was capable of deducing that the best possible hand I could realistically have is q9 and I would at least have to consider folding it to a push. I think that if he decides to bluff here its more of a "Ive been playing pretty tight, he cant call a push here without a huge hand" type of thing, and I just dont think this guy does it that often.

Results in white:

<font color="white">He had [ 5C,AD ] and I took it down </font>

[coxquinn]

nh but I'm curious where you think your edge here is in this match. Your description of villain and the fact he made this play w/ that hand scares me.

[coxquinn]

err sorry I guess he does not value bet thin enough but damn that seems like a thin edge.

[recallme]

I couldn`t fold that in a Fr game and less in a HU game. You`r hand is underrepped and i think he`s more likely to think that the Q scares you then helped you, or?