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Old 11-08-2007, 12:38 PM
SenatorFoghorn SenatorFoghorn is offline
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Default How often are my KK\'s up against AA Preflop?

I recall reading a post that said KK will be up against AA every >20,000 hands. I tried the search function and could not find it.

How often will your pocket KK be against AA preflop?

In the last 31,000 hands I have had KK 129 times or 1/242. That sounds about right. Is it?

KK is winning 81.4 % and that sounds about right. Is it?

But my pocket KK have run into AA 6 times in 31,000 hands. Seems high to me. Is it?

Thanks for your comments
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Old 11-08-2007, 01:55 PM
rufus rufus is offline
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Default Re: How often are my KK\'s up against AA Preflop?

The chance that your opponent (heads up) has AA when you already have KK is 6 in 1225 -- roughly 1 in 204. If you're playing ring games you can reasonably approximate the likelihood that any of them has that by multiplying by the number of opponents. For a 6 or 10 man ring, your number is pretty close to the expected rate.
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Old 11-09-2007, 11:38 AM
pococurante pococurante is offline
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Default Re: How often are my KK\'s up against AA Preflop?

The odds of getting dealt KK are 1 in 221. You've been dealt a few less than normal, but nothing too unusual there.

The odds of running KK into AA depend completely on the number of opponents at the table. If it's a heads up game, the odds are 1 in 48841 hands. At a 6 man table it's 1 in 9768 hands. At a 9 man table it's 1 in 6105 hands.

I'm guessing you play 9 man tables, in which case your luck is very slightly worse than it should be. If you play 6 man tables, then you're luck is actually something to complain about.

The overall 81.4% winrate sounds normal too.
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Old 11-09-2007, 12:32 PM
BruceZ BruceZ is offline
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Default Re: How often are my KK\'s up against AA Preflop?

[ QUOTE ]
The odds of getting dealt KK are 1 in 221. You've been dealt a few less than normal, but nothing too unusual there.

The odds of running KK into AA depend completely on the number of opponents at the table. If it's a heads up game, the odds are 1 in 48841 hands. At a 6 man table it's 1 in 9768 hands. At a 9 man table it's 1 in 6105 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

These numbers come from 221*221/(N-1), where N is the number of players. This is an approximation since the hands are not independent. This post gives the method to get the exact answers for this and similar problems, along with a more accurate approximation at the bottom. Results are given for 10 and 6 player tables, with a link to some results for 9 and 4 player tables. For this problem, the numbers given in that post assume that you already hold KK, and give the odds that AA is out.

For a 10-player table, we see that the odds of AA being out when you hold KK is about 21.8-to-1, or 1 in 22.8. Since we get dealt KK 1 time in 221 hands on average, to get the overall probability of being dealt KK and facing AA we multiply 22.8 by 221 to get about 1 in 5039. This is 6 in 30,234, which would be right in line with the OP's results if he were on a 10-player table.
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