Absolute Soulreading/Rigged thread #3

[Marnixvdb]

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ehm skip those kind of religious sounding nonsense please and explain me why 2+2 wants to believe

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sorry, I just don't know where to start.

OK, lets see. Nobody want to hear that the winning stats is not very suspicious at all. In fact, those stats are expected if we look in a very large dataset (all high stakes poker hands the last couple of years) with very high variance (it has been suggested that this villain plays a style that has a SD of 270PTBB/100 estimated from observed data) Instead, people wants to believe that these stats has a 1:10^20 probability.

why? People wants to believe he cheated.

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people don't want to believe it, it's just that the evidence is compelling. Why would they want to believe a 80/60 player is cheating? They'd love him to be playing that kind of game straight up!

and sure, there is a chance that is is all a weird coincidence, nobody is denying that, it's just way more unlikely explanation than cheating; especially if all those 'possibly weird coincidences' occurred in a short time frame and involved multiple accounts

[Lori]

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Lori, I remember a post you made awhile ago in which you investigated the KGC - it seemed pretty conclusive that it is indeed just a front for various cardrooms (also numerous shady ones according to CM) and it's unlikely that they will do anything at all.

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That's pretty much the size of it yes.

[krumeluren]

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If you all want to get the story out, you are going to have to spoonfeed it to people. Journalists, Krum, everyone.

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That's a very good suggestion. Tank you Kurt. But be sure to bring forward all the data. Everybody knows that with bits and pieces you can prove anything you want.

[McSeafield]

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LOL if you think the Kahwanake Gaming Commission is anything other than a regulatory front for the card rooms.

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Correct, AFAIK they have never even gotten involved in a dispute much less resolve one.

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FWIW, i lodged a complaint w/ them a few days ago -- it seems like a flimsy organization run by max 5-people. Apparently all they do is pass my complaint on to Absolute, and then relay Absolute's reply back to me. I was told that if i'm still unsatisfied, they will instigate an investigation on my behalf, but i highly doubt this is going to happen.

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Haha, I expected this. But like most people in this forum I am keen-eyed for solid evidence. Though, thanks Teddy and Pokeraddict I didn´t know that.

[Klompy]

teddy,

I like the idea of bringing this story out, and your suggestion of having it stickied is a decent idea. I don't see any way that the owners of 2+2 would ever let this happen though. Wouldn't this open them up to the possibility of being sued? I'm no legal expert so I could be wrong, but it just sounds like a really bad idea from their side to go ahead and let that happen.

[pineapple888]

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ehm skip those kind of religious sounding nonsense please and explain me why 2+2 wants to believe

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sorry, I just don't know where to start.

OK, lets see. Nobody want to hear that the winning stats is not very suspicious at all. In fact, those stats are expected if we look in a very large dataset (all high stakes poker hands the last couple of years) with very high variance (it has been suggested that this villain plays a style that has a SD of 270PTBB/100 estimated from observed data) Instead, people wants to believe that these stats has a 1:10^20 probability.

why? People wants to believe he cheated.

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Are you:
[ ] Stupid
[ ] Forgetful
[ ] Trolling
[ ] A shill
[ ] All of the above?

We've been over this. The 10^20 IS NOT WIN RATE. It is how often he could be expected to play perfectly with an infinite river aggression.

Plus there is a whole bunch of other very suspicious evidence on top of that.

I'd ban you for a week if I was a mod. In any case, I'm not responding to you any more, and I suggest nobody else does either.

[krumeluren]

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It is how often he could be expected to play perfectly with an infinite river aggression.

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People also wants to believe that this guy plays several hundred hands perfectly. But to know he played perfectly we must also must know he never folded the best hand and ideally that he had 100% showdown winnings (or that we know for sure that he lost only with a bluff which might be hard with a guy that may think his T high is good).

edit: I also beleive that all estimates of playing perfectly on the river will have a very large uncertainty in them because IT is exremely difficult to models it taking into account hole cards, prior betting and board texture.
If the stimates are based on a random board, they will be way off for someone that runs hot.

[Marnixvdb]

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It is how often he could be expected to play perfectly with an infinite river aggression.

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People also wants to believe that this guy plays several hundred hands perfectly. But to know he played perfectly we must also must know he never folded the best hand and ideally that he had 100% showdown winnings (or that we know for sure that he lost only with a bluff which might be hard with a guy that may think his T high is good).

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man stop saying that people wants to believe. They don't and you don't have good arguments to say they do. At least, I'm still waiting to hear them from you.

Someone with infinite river aggression, who never calls with a worse hand, does obviously not necessarily have 100% showdown winnings. This is because

a) he can try to bluff the river and be called by the best hand (e.g. not expecting his opponent to call his big overbet with A high or bottom pair)

b) he can be allin before the river with the best hand and be sucked out on

[Oski]

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If you want to sue Absolute than the following question seems to be important. What is the company status of Absolute Poker? I see the answer as follows:

1) If Absolute Poker is only a subsidiary of Tokwiro Enterprises ENRG, then Absolute is located in Kahnawake too.

2) If Absolute Poker is a incorporated company (it doesn´t look like) and with place of management in Costa Rica, than its place of business is Costa Rica for sure.


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I don't see a lawsuit out of this.

[PokerStorm]

I posted this already but it looks like it didn't get any attention so I'm gonna post it again - "Absolute Poker and the Absolute Poker website are solely owned and operated by Tokwiro Enterprises ENRG, Route 138, Kahnawake, Quebec J0L 1B0. Tokwiro Enterprises ENRG is owned by a Mohawk of Kahnawake and is operated from the sovereign nation of the Mohawks of Kahnawake, located near Montreal Quebec."

They are owned by a Canadian based company and serious fraud has occurred that is backed up by overwhelming statistical evidence. It should be reported to https://www.recol.ca/intro.aspx?lang=en. If this went to court I would imagine an impartial mathematician would be called on to very the data, aswell as a few impartial pro poker players, possiblity celebrity pro's who don't even play on line to ensure their impartiality, who can testify on the corroborating evidence in the HHs. They could easily find them guilty well beyond a reasonable doubt. <font color="red"> </font>

Whatever about trying to get the word out to the wider media, I think a court case would serve that purpose better than any other means, aswell as getting some justice.

I'm gonna highlight this cos I think it hasn't been emphasised enough yet - please tell me if I've overlooked something and this idea is not feasible (such as Canada not having juristiction on this reservation, I'd imagine it does but I don't know)
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FRAUD IS A SERIOUS CRIME THAT CAN RESULT IN JAIL AND PEOPLE HAVE BEEN ROBBED OF TENS/HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS. WHY HAS NO-ONE MENTIONED BRINGING CHARGES AGAINST THE CHEATERS AND POSSIBLY AGAINST ABSOLUTE FOR COVERING IT UP AND FACILITATING IT IN THE FIRST PLACE. </font>