AA vs LAG

[jstill]

how does this hand change for u guys if he capped peflop? how much would u discount KJ by in his range?

[Absolution]

Moot point since he wouldn't play it like this. Isn't it nice how everybody donk bets their made hands now. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[jstill]

[ QUOTE ]
Moot point since he wouldn't play it like this. Isn't it nice how everybody donk bets their made hands now. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

was this a response to my question?

why is it moot? why couldnt he cap then play his hand exactly the way he did here postflop on this same board? why is it not worthwhile to know what would be best IMO in that situation? Seems like a more than worthwhile question to me

[jstill]

I think i used to quite a bit (and probably on occasion now in the heat of battle still do vs boobers) make the mistake to cap the turn here with real strong hands like this I shouldnt IMO. Regularly overplaying ur big hands is

You need to be ahead of his range by 50% or more after the 3bet to cap. KJ is just too much of his range here for this to be true I think almost without question. KJ is 16 combos and the few worse combos should probably be slowing down worrying about ur AA QQ TT when u raise the turn after the flop cap and his lead (since literally there are no worse hands than AT ud play this way if even, AQ should be starting to rule out AK or AJ). AQ TT AT are 9 combos total so ur behind 4:3 when u need to be at 1:1 and truthfully want to be ahead by at least 4:3 id say since by capping u often cost urself an extra river bet as well when he check-raises, so this cap isnt exactly a straight 1 to 1 proposition.

the river raise is clearly a spew, u get 2 bets in when ahead IMO and 3 in when behind so to breakeven u need to be ahead of his range 3:2 that still leads into u after the turn cap. Even if hed always overplay AT TT AQ or QQ this way postflop (and often not cap QQ preflop) u still cant raise this river profitably, so the decision is pretty clear cut.

[nickg1532]

[ QUOTE ]
QQ caps so that's out
TT is in methinks.
AQ caps maybe half the time (3 combos*.5=1.5 combos)
AT isn't exactly in b/c his pfr might be higher if it was but otoh it's only 30 hands so who knows. Lets say 1.5 for AT.

that only leaves like 6 combos you beat versus the 16 of KJ.

Even if you wanna be creative and add in 55 and A5, we're still not in good shape on the river. so [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

i think a turn cap is fine. i might be wrong, but i think you overestimate how often AQ is capping. i wouldn't discount it as much. also, my pfr is about 17, and i raise AT UTG everytime.

Also, when you're behind, you still have 10 outs. When you are ahead he's pretty much drawing dead. Finally, there is also a small chance he's just being retarded w/ something weird

River OTOH is a call.

[jstill]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
QQ caps so that's out
TT is in methinks.
AQ caps maybe half the time (3 combos*.5=1.5 combos)
AT isn't exactly in b/c his pfr might be higher if it was but otoh it's only 30 hands so who knows. Lets say 1.5 for AT.

that only leaves like 6 combos you beat versus the 16 of KJ.

Even if you wanna be creative and add in 55 and A5, we're still not in good shape on the river. so [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

i think a turn cap is fine. i might be wrong, but i think you overestimate how often AQ is capping. i wouldn't discount it as much. also, my pfr is about 17, and i raise AT UTG everytime.

Also, when you're behind, you still have 10 outs. When you are ahead he's pretty much drawing dead. Finally, there is also a small chance he's just being retarded w/ something weird

River OTOH is a call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nick i dont really agree with the above analysis either, but im still not sure we can cap the turn profitably. To cap we actually dont need to be ahead by 50% i oversimplified that since we still have 20% equity when behind, but its kind of close.

Let me think about this more. If his range that he would play up til this point is truly AT, AQ, TT and KJ (we'll leave out QQ since it usually caps and sometimes AT or AQ will slow down after the turn raise, and occasionally TT also, so that will be a fine way to estimate his range of worse hands roughly).

AT AQ and TT are all 3 combos and KJ is 16

the ev of capping vs calling the turn vs this range is

AT or AQ (6 combos) call: 2bbs go in after ur turn raise. cap: 4 bbs all of which u win all the time

TT call (3 combos) 2bbs go in after ur turn raise, cap 4bbs go in. U win all these bets 1/44 times

KJ (16 combos) call 2bbs go in, cap 4 bbs go in. You will win the pot 10/44 times here.

so if u call u get 2bbs from AQ or AT 6/25 times, 2bbs from TT 3/25*(43/44) % of the time and lose 2bbs 3/25* (1/44) and u lose 2bbs 16/25*(34/44) and win 2bbs 16/25*(10/44)

if u cap u get 4bbs in vs AQ or AT 6/25 % of the time, u get 4bbs in vs TT which u win all 4 43/44*3/25% of the time and u get 4bbs in vs KJ which u win 10/44*16/25% of the time and lose 34/44*16/25 % of the time.

Im actually not sure if i set this up exactly right since I included my own bets going into the pot as part of the EV value for each line, but I think even if thats wrong I did it for both so whichever one comes out as the more EV line vs his range should still be right either way? Anyone want to help me out with that, did i set this up all wrong? With this calculation (not sure if i just multiplied it out wrong either) capping is actually more ev.

but the question still remains, should we perhaps discount AT AQ or TT more than their full number of combinations. Those hands should stop thinking "AK" after we cap the flop and still raise their turn lead. What worse hand than AT could we play this way? AQ should stop thinking AT when we raise as well. Tough hand, interesting spot that would be hard to derive a clear cut answer for i think, since his range is somewhat up for debate and we do have lots of equity when behind.

[nickg1532]

i think we can agree that it's likely close. i'll give you the benefit of the doubt since you've but more work into the math than i have patience for [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[jstill]

actually i wish people wouldnt just trust, I know Im far from right about everything. I was kinda hoping someone would let me know if i even did this right if we can assume his range is 100% accurate.

I think either way tho since its so close and the lower portion of worse hands should probably be discounted some we shouldnt cap, altho its far from a huge mistake. I think two factors that are important tho and push it to even more of a call are that by capping we often get check-raised on a blank when beat (costing us 2 bbs more than calling down from the 3bet) and hes much less likely to lead a board pair river after we cap so we lose a bit of our implied odds if behind by capping vs calling.

Im still curious to hear thoughts about how this hand changes if he capped preflop, can we rule out KJ enough and just put him on QQ or TT and then capping the turn and/or raising the river becomes +EV? also curious to hear if i set up the EV calculations here correctly for this kind of scenario, weighing the decision between capping and calling down from the 3bet.

[sethypooh21]

I think people are getting thrown of by the title of this thread - while villain is clearly "aggro", he's not really laggy enough expect him to cap KJ pf, or to go nuts on this board with less than say 2 pr.

As played, turn is fine, though just calling the 3-ball works too. River is spewy.