The Official "Tom Brady re-writes the record books in 2007" Thread

[vhawk01]

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so how hated would jordans bulls be in the internet/espn "expert" age?

seems like if we hadn't been subjected to the daily brady/pats felatio sessions for the last 6 years the pats wouldn't have created such a love/hate national fan base.

jordan had a couple of haters but even the haters would sit back, say damn and appreciate him back in the day. there is a huge populace that will never give brady the respect he deserves.

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Brady is a very good QB but has only had two great seasons. Last year and the year before. This one looks like it will be his third.

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These are the statements that I just find ridiculous.

A QUARTERBACK'S JOB IS NOT TO PUT UP HUGE STATS.

For some reason you define "great statistical season" as "great season".

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Yes, that is exactly his job. Complete as many passes for as many yards and as many TDs while committing as few turnovers as possible. Just like the guy who does the carburators at the auto plants job is to make carburators, not to make "magnificient cars." The QB has a job. We are right now arguing about who has done that job the best. There are a TON of things that a QB cannot control (well over 50% of the game, probably over 80%) and these things are immaterial to the discussion. His job IS TO PUT UP HUGE STATS.

[Eagles]

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Stats are not irrelevant. But I think that a good football mind watching each game will be able to evaluate players much better than just going by stats.


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What qualifies you as a good football mind? Do you have any expertise outside of simply being a fan watching the game?
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Tom Brady's stats wouldn't even put him ahead of QBs like Carson Palmer or Tony Romo career wise. Do you really think they are better than him?


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What stats put Palmer/Romo ahead of Brady career wise? Please show them to me because I'm 99% sure they don't exist. BTW this is a perfect example of why so many posters feud with you. You say ridiculously stupid comments that aren't true and try to use it to prove your point. Though FWIW Carson Palmer is an excellent QB and pretty young, ten years from now one could be one of the best.(Not saying better or worse than Brady just saying he's very good).

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Watching the games, to me it looks as if Tom Brady is the best player I've ever seen. You choose to rely upon stats instead. Thats fine. But this year, Tom Brady appears to be proving you wrong, as he finally has WRs and is putting up huge stats just as I've always said he would.


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Just to clarify you are basing Brady's 7 games this year against pretty bad defenses to infer that he is better than Peyton Manning who was been by far the most valuable player over the past 8 years.

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My contention is that as long as Brady has good weapons, plays in an open offense, and it isn't horrible weather he'll put up dominant stats. Do you disagree with that?

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Brady is an excellent QB who will put up good stats regardless where he plays. I agree with your statement but I Manning is still a better QB.

[Billy Bibbit]

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[censored] son, the last time Randy played on a team that wasn't the Raiders, he had 13 TDs in 10 games, all but 3 of which he had a hamstring problem for. That year his QB threw 39 TDs... and in the 15 games hes played since then hes only thrown 12!

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My last two posts were kind of flippant so I'll write a real response this time.

1. Daunte Culpepper was a very, very good QB before he blew out his knee.

2. Culpepper played four full seasons with Moss in Minnesota, and made the Pro Bowl three teams, but only once did he put up the type of crazy numbers Brady would need for the rest of the year to break the TD record. Why are you focusing only on Culpepper's and Moss's best statistcal season in Minnesota and ignoring the other three when their performance was merely very good, not all-time great?

3. More importantly, there have been a pretty large number of seasons when a great QB has teamed up with one or more great WR's in the past 10-15 years. Off the top of my head, Peyton Manning the last several years in Indianapolis, Kurt Warner with Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce for a few years in St. Louis, Dan Marino with Mark Clayton and others for a bunch of years in Miami, Steve Young with Jerry Rice in San Francisco, Brett Favre with various WR's and TE's in Green Bay, and Culpepper and Moss in Minnesota. That's like more than 20 seasons and only 4 times has someone thrown for 40 TD's in a season which is the pace Brady needs to set to break Manning's record. 4/20 = unlikely.

4. The three QB's who DID throw for 4 TD's in a season (Warner, Manning and Marino) all played in domes or warm climates.

5. It's fairly likely that the Patriots will pad Brady's stats in the last few games to try and get him the record, especially if they beat the Colts which would let them lose a game somewhere and still lock up home-field advantage. I still think his chances of breaking the record are well under 40% though.

In conclusion, if anyone who thinks he'll break the record no problem barring injury, that person is the Mondogarage of NFL posts.

[kidcolin]

vhawk,

not really. This isn't baseball. A QBs job is to execute a coach's gameplan as perfectly as possible. If he does that well, he'll usually have monster stats, sure, but there can be varying degrees of yardage or deep ball completions or whatever due to the gameplan.

[Assani Fisher]

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What stats put Palmer/Romo ahead of Brady career wise? Please show them to me because I'm 99% sure they don't exist. BTW this is a perfect example of why so many posters feud with you. You say ridiculously stupid comments that aren't true and try to use it to prove your point. Though FWIW Carson Palmer is an excellent QB and pretty young, ten years from now one could be one of the best.(Not saying better or worse than Brady just saying he's very good).


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Dude, you're pissing me off now. I've asked you multiple times to cool it with the personal insults. Saying things like "you say ridiculously stupid comments" is just flat out immature and insulting. How [censored] old are you man? I live in Las Vegas and will be at next year's WSOP...please come up to me and talk to me like this in real life.

Heres your stats since apparently you're too damn lazy to look them up for yourself yet you have no problem disagreeing with me even though you didn't look them up....

QB Rating
Romo: 95.3
Brady: 91.8
Palmer: 91.2

Yards per pass attempt
Romo: 8.5
Palmer: 7.4
Brady: 7.2

Yards per game
Palmer: 244.8
Brady: 230.0
Romo: 181.4(obviously skewed as he has 5 games in which he threw 2 or less passes and has only been around for 2 years. If you calculate this fairly, he beats Brady)


Completion %
Romo: 64.2
Palmer: 63.7
Brady: 62.7

TDs per pass attempt
Romo: 1 TD every 16.45 passes
Palmer: 1 TD every 18.51 passes
Brady: 1 TD every 18.92 passes


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What qualifies you as a good football mind? Do you have any expertise outside of simply being a fan watching the game?

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I've never played anything higher than HS football, but in general I'm very unbiased. If you've noticed I get labeled as a Brady and Vince Young fan, yet I don't like either player or their teams. I'm a Redskins fan first and a RAvens fan second.

I also think that I watch an absurd amount of sports and will re-watch entire games to notice the finer points.

Lastly and perhaps most importantly is that I've shown the willingness to change my position when I'm wrong. I could provide multiple examples of this just from this board.

I don't think I'm anything special though and I'm sure that there are many posters here that are just as qualified to analyze the games as me.


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Just to clarify you are basing Brady's 7 games this year against pretty bad defenses to infer that he is better than Peyton Manning who was been by far the most valuable player over the past 8 years.

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No, I am basing it upon watching their entire careers and forming an unbiased opinion that Brady is the better quarterback. I only mention these 7 games because apparently you'll only be convinced by stats.


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Brady is an excellent QB who will put up good stats regardless where he plays. I agree with your statement but I Manning is still a better QB.

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Thats fine. What would Brady have to accomplish in order for you to change your opinion? Furthermore, could you ever rank a QB above Manning if he happened to play in a ball control offense with bad WRs and didn't put up huge stats? If not, do you not see that as a flaw in your ranking system since you're limiting a players' potential ranking solely based upon outside factors and not his actual skill level?

[NozeCandy]

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Yes, that is exactly his job. Complete as many passes for as many yards and as many TDs while committing as few turnovers as possible. Just like the guy who does the carburators at the auto plants job is to make carburators, not to make "magnificient cars." The QB has a job. We are right now arguing about who has done that job the best. There are a TON of things that a QB cannot control (well over 50% of the game, probably over 80%) and these things are immaterial to the discussion. His job IS TO PUT UP HUGE STATS.

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Notre Dame has one of the best statistical pass defense in college football. This is because it is not always the QBs job to put up huge stats.

[Assani Fisher]

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Assani,
A few points
1. Isolating pass defense is sort of silly. Run D and Pass D are highly correlated and if a team has a bad Run D than the other team runs a lot so they need to counter it by putting in more run defenders which opens up the passing game.


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BTW I just kinda glossed over this, but....

The Dolphins had the #6 ranked pass D last year. This year, taking away the Pats game I believe they are #3 or #4.

If their bad rush D opened up things for opponents to pass so much then why weren't more teams doing it?


There is absolutely no way that you can honestly think that the Dolphins suck at pass D. Its just not true.

[bottomset]

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Assani,
A few points
1. Isolating pass defense is sort of silly. Run D and Pass D are highly correlated and if a team has a bad Run D than the other team runs a lot so they need to counter it by putting in more run defenders which opens up the passing game.


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BTW I just kinda glossed over this, but....

The Dolphins had the #6 ranked pass D last year. This year, taking away the Pats game I believe they are #3 or #4.

If their bad rush D opened up things for opponents to pass so much then why weren't more teams doing it?


There is absolutely no way that you can honestly think that the Dolphins suck at pass D. Its just not true.

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DVOA passD last year 12
this year before NE game 30

[Jack of Arcades]

As of 10/16, Miami was ranked 30th in Defensive Pass DVOA, only ahead of the Jets and the Saints.

[vhawk01]

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vhawk,

not really. This isn't baseball. A QBs job is to execute a coach's gameplan as perfectly as possible. If he does that well, he'll usually have monster stats, sure, but there can be varying degrees of yardage or deep ball completions or whatever due to the gameplan.

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Right but its still the same thing. Thats why I included things besides just numbers. His goal is still to score a TD on every play (the optimal outcome) but his job is to do that by executing a gameplan. This is also conveyed in the "limiting turnovers" part. But no part of the QBs job involves making a crucial stop on 3rd and 5 or kicking a game-winner from 43 or returning kicks on special teams. In other words, no part of the QBs job is to win games. His job is to pass the ball. Or hand it off. But (barring Daunte Culpepper) we can probably all agree that most QBs are pretty equivalent when it comes to handing it off, so in order to differentiate we focus mostly on the passing aspect. Throw it as accurately as possible, to the most open/furthest downfield receiver, as quickly as possible, minimizing the risk of a turnover. Those are the jobs of a QB. And Brady and Manning do them better than anyone else in football. But at least to this point in history, Manning does them better. I love watching both of these guys. And I REALLY love the fact that Brady got Moss and Welker and Stallworth, because it eliminates the built-in excuse that the Brady guys were going to have at the end of these HOF careers. Now we will see. If Brady really does put up super-Manning numbers over the next couple of years now that he has elite WRs, then he will displace Manning. I think this is unlikely but I'm really stoked to watch him try.