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math Problem in Tournament poker for advanced Players ( Sklansky)
Hi!! Can anybody help me?
Referring to DAVID SKLANSKY - TOURNAMENT POKER For Advanced Players I've got some problems with one of David's calculations! I don't know if I and my folks are just too stupid for this one or i miss something in the context because English isn't my native tongue. My problem: Chapter You're broke You're done: two bets: $200 to $100 on a coinflip $120 to $100 on a coinflip first bet is described in the book: Expected value: 0,5 * (-100 $) + 0,5 * (200$) = 50 sounds pretty simple According to this I apply this formula on the second bet: Expected value : 0,5* (-100$) + 0,5* (-120$) = 10 he now claims that if he had the money and would make both bets he would have an EV of 35 That's my problem. At first glance I see that the average of my bets should be 30 Using the old formula: I would win one time bet 1 I would win one time bet 2 I would lose 2 times ( 1+2) 0,5* (-100$) + (0,25 * 120$) + ( 0,25* 200$) = 30 that's my reasoning David makes it so without detailed explanations: 0,5* (-100$) + 0,25*( 20$) +0,25 * (320$) which gives us an EV of 35 Can someone help me with this one. I'm pretty pissed off that I don't get this calculation Formal and informative replies are appreciated Folding_the _nuts |
#2
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Re: math Problem in Tournament poker for advanced Players ( Sklansky)
Hm, the actual setup is:
You are offered a 120$:100$ coin-flip today. You are offered a 200$:100$ coin-flip tomorrow. But you only own 100$. So, the thing you are missing here is that, if we loose the first coin-flip, we will pass out on the second one. So, 50% of the time we will end up with nothing (-100$), because we loose our first bet. 25% of the time we win both coin-flips for winnings of +320$, and 25$ of the time we win the first, but not the second flip, resulting in +20$. So, taking the first bet, we have an expectation: 0.5*(-100$)+0.25*320$+0.25*20$ = +35$ If we skip the first bet, and only take the second one, we have an expectation of +50$. |
#3
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Re: math Problem in Tournament poker for advanced Players ( Sklansky)
Hi plexig!!
Now I get the context right, thanks a lot. Ftn |
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