1st round NCAA/NIT sides and totals

[NajdorfDefense]

How is the #2 seed winning in final a 'big run???' And Nevada flaming out is a positive?

Man, that's what makes a market I guess. Just shocked at all then Reno-10k POB hugglers.

[iggymcfly]

Not that Nevada losing is a "positive". Just that it's a lot smaller negative than people think as the effects of the extra rest and motivation counteract the evidence that Nevada's just not that good. And if the Wolfpack hadn't lost that game, they'd probably be a 4 seed somewhere and would be favored by more than 1 against Creighton on a neutral floor.

What's Creighton done this year other than win their conference tourney anyway? Going into the tourney, they were 19-10 with losses to Nebraska, Dayton, Fresno State, Hawaii, Indiana State, and Illinois State. Those are some bad losses. Part of my point about the conference tournaments is that as the last games the betting public sees before the NCAAs, they tend to overadjust for them and give the team that wins them too much credit. Creighton's overall resume just isn't that good.

And even though Creighton's run doesn't compare with Syracuse or Maryland's conference tournament runs of recent years, they did have to pull an upset over SIU just to make the NCAAs, so there's a distinct possibility that they won't put full effort into preparing for Nevada. That's where the difference comes in for the 1st round games; the team that's already won their "Super Bowl" doesn't give the same focus in the film room as the team that's desperate to prove their conference tournament loss was a fluke.

[Donk4Life]

UNT isn't all that great. I'll probably go against.

[wheatrich]

I'm trying to figure out how Marq +1.5 isn't a huge EV one.
[note haven't checked for better lines yet]

Current Bets (in order of what I think are +EV to least that)
Marq +1.5
Villanova -1
BYU +1.5 (despite Xavier being somewhat close to the location BYU's the better team)
Nevada -1
UNLV +1.5
USC -1.5
In all 3 I think the +1.5 is the better team thus the bets.

On the fence on
Louisville -5.5
ODU +1
George Washington +3.5
Gonzaga +1.5 (don't like the zags but indiana sucks hmmmph)
Arizona -2

If you guys can help me with my on the fence ones that would help me out some.

[pokergrader]

I can't believe USC is only -1.5

I might be a huge homer but I think USC should be at least -4 against arkansas.

[CarlSpackler]

[ QUOTE ]
I like the Nevada pick a lot. I think in general teams that have to make a big (somewhat unexpected) run in their conference tourneys just to make the NCAAs generally don't perform as well in their first round games. Nevada meanwhile has been waiting to avenge their conference tourney loss and is probably also somewhat of an underseed at a 7.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand what you're saying about conference tourneys, since playing 3 days in a row is a grind, and then these teams have to be ready to play on the following Thursday or Friday, and may not be well rested. This doesn't really apply to the MVC conference tourney, however, since the championship game was a week from last Sunday. Altman gave Creighton 3 days off following the tourney, so there won't be a team more well rested come Friday, than Creighton.

The whole 'avenge their tourney loss' is not a factor. Not sure what you're thinking there.

[MicroBob]

I think that MAYBE there is a factor for some team who played in their conf-championship on Sunday and then has to play again on Thursday.
Especially if they played 4 conf-games.

Otherwise, I just don't think the fatigue is that much of a factor.
Just my hunch though. Haven't looked at the numbers on it or anything.

Lots of these schools are on spring-break. So they don't even have to go to classes or anything like that.
The asst-coach or travel guy has to scramble to make arrangements to get them out to wherever they need to go and also needs to make a bunch of phone-calls to get video-tapes of their opponents.
But the players just have to get on the plane and ride their adrenalin-rush to wherever they play next.

[Austiger]

I don't like the TAMU/Penn over. I think some of the BigXII offenses are very good this year and people may have forgotten how good TAMU is on D.

I do like Davidson +8.

[hobbes9324]

Lot of love for Nevada around here - I can't see it.

Their best win of the year was probably at Hawaii - they beat Gonzaga when Gonzaga had the blind staggers, and lost to UNLV badly at home and to a mediocre Utah State team in the conference tourney. Fazekas is a pretty good player, but soft. Shiloh is going to play, but ANYONE with a hamstring injury is suspect - if you've ever had one, they take weeks (at least) to fully heal. And the coach is showing signs of wigging out.

Add in that essentially the same team got crushed by freaking Montana last year......

I live in Reno - went to UNR - I'd love for them to win. But I'm sure as hell not betting on them.

MM MD

[CarlSpackler]

[ QUOTE ]

And even though Creighton's run doesn't compare with Syracuse or Maryland's conference tournament runs of recent years, they did have to pull an upset over SIU just to make the NCAAs, so there's a distinct possibility that they won't put full effort into preparing for Nevada. That's where the difference comes in for the 1st round games; the team that's already won their "Super Bowl" doesn't give the same focus in the film room as the team that's desperate to prove their conference tournament loss was a fluke.

[/ QUOTE ]

No offense, but this is completely absurd. Creighton's goal this year since the end of last season is to reach at least the sweet 16. Calling the MVC tournament championship game their super bowl is ridiculous. And their win over SIU was huge, but not for the reasons you think. Creighton had lost 8 straight to SIU, including 2 games earlier this season which were decided in the final seconds. But they finally got over the hump and are playing their best ball of the season.

And you don't think Altman is going to have this team prepared? He was able to get tape from Northern Iowa (who played Nevada in the bracket buster) and other sources asap after the matchups were annonunced. When asked how they were going to prepare for Nevada on Sunday, Anthony Tolliver was even quoted as saying that they'll just wait for the coaches to gameplan, and then the players will learn and follow it.


The key to this game is pretty simple. If Creighton's front line stays out of foul trouble (especially Tolliver), then you really have to like their chances of winning. If the Jays get into foul trouble (particularly Tolliver) it's going to be extremely difficult for them to stay in this game. Creighton's bench is extremely thin on the front line, and they need to keep Tolliver and Porter on the floor to match up with Fazekas and Kemp respectively.

When I initially saw Nevada -1, my first instinct was to jump on board, but something seems fishy about the line. I really thought it would open no lower than Nevada -3 (is the Shiloh injury that big of factor to move the line a couple of points?). I expect this to be a close, hard fought battle, and unfortunately the biggest factor will probably be how the refs call the game.