$370 WSOP ME Sat Hand - Total Confusion

[potamophobia]

Well by nothing I meant KQc, QJc, even KJc. 88/99 are also possibilities, but I guess those arent really nothing.

[PhatPots]

I would probably re-raise preflop. I would make a bet on the flop for 1/2 pot and then I go into c/f mode. You can call the turn sometimes, because he may have 3-bet you with JJ, or medium pair like 99-77 (unlikely though). The river is an easy fold. I don't think he rarely bets unless he has at least AK, possibly AA or TT. Which seems far more likely. Not many players lead the flop when they hit a set heads-up.


With regard to your other question, the fact that this is a satellite means you should be more aggressive. The payout is very top heavy. So don't be afraid of coin flip situations. You need to have a big stack as you get close to the bubble.

[jgunnip]

Preflop is fine. Folding to the 3bet is just way to nitty at this stage of the tournament since I belive there were still ~2.5k left at this point. With the Ace on the flop I'm pretty much shutting down and here I'd fold the turn.


[ QUOTE ]
With regard to your other question, the fact that this is a satellite means you should be more aggressive. The payout is very top heavy. So don't be afraid of coin flip situations. You need to have a big stack as you get close to the bubble.

[/ QUOTE ]


a) You don't need to be more aggressive in satalites since 1st is the same as the last place in. And the 370 sat there were 220 seats and avg stack at the bubble was 78k.

b) You want to avoid coinflips in satalites b/c of the nature of play. You have much more FE when you open than in a normal mtt and must play very tight against raises and pushes. And with the 30 minutes blinds in the 370 sat taking a coinflip is horrible, especially with 100bb.

c) You don't need a big stack at all near the bubble, just one big enough to survive.

[Tyler Durden]

results?

[Doylestown]

Nothing heroic. The 9K bet on the river totally threw me. I was so ready to muck to a normal sized bet then that overbet came out of nowhere. I came within a hair a shoving the river thinking it could be a bet out of weakness trying to lose me. I thought a shove would get him to muck KK but then I thought better of it and folded. Could he have caught a set of 3's or 7's?

He just played this really strangely and combined with his image I had trouble putting him on a hand so I decided to live to fight another day.

[whynot?]

[ QUOTE ]
With regard to your other question, the fact that this is a satellite means you should be more aggressive. The payout is very top heavy. So don't be afraid of coin flip situations. You need to have a big stack as you get close to the bubble.

[/ QUOTE ]

with all due respect, this is 180 degrees from what i believe to be right given where villain is

if youre short, sure, but in hero's current position i just dont think it makes sense.

you dont need a big stack, your target should be about 80% of average at bubble time - dont need more, could do with less

gambling by taking a flip against the only stack that can eliminate you with a questionable hand just doesnt make sense. as i get closer to a bubble, i always try to do some quick math that balances

the chance of winning a seat in current pos vs the chance of winning a seat if win the current hand times the chances of winning hte current hand

nothing formal but a quick check point - so in this case lets say you have a 30% chance of winning a seat in your current position. if your chances increase to 50% by winning, then your gut feel would be you need a 60% chance of winning if you make the call - clearly you dont have that - obv this works better before entering a pot but the logic holds along the way still - in this case if you risk the 9k is it a good gamble - think the above math is directionally correct with regard to that decision


theres probably some fallacy in the above but i think its a bit of a guiding principle as you get closer to the bubble. i really believe its incredibly important to have a plan in a sat (as always) and stick to it -

[0evg0]

Didn't read this last novel of a post, but the fact that it's a satellite should have 0 impact on your play at this stage. You're way too far away to be passing up +cEV spots yet -- not that this is one of them.