Bottom set meets donk on backdoor 4 card SD + 3-card FD river

[Mitke]

Sorry, no better reads than that SB is your average TAG and BB is your average LAG (didn't play this hand, posting this from a Finnish site as I thought this was interesting).

Poker Room skin Fixed Limit Holdem Ring game $2/$4 5 players

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is UTG with 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Hero raises, 2 folds, SB 3-bets, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (12SB, 3 players)
SB bets, BB raises, Hero 3-bets, SB folds, BB calls.

Turn: 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (9.5BB, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

River: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (11.5BB, 2 players)
BB bets, Hero ?


--
My thoughts:

No way I'm folding this. It's either a call, r/c, or r/f.

What do you think: how often your average LAG is donking this with...

... air, bluffing on a scare card?

... Q7/87/76, wanting to get at least one bet in on a scary board, afraid a QX won't bet?

... Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] X[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], wanting to get at least one bet in on a scary board, afraid a QX won't bet?

... 77, with what he tried to shutout the Hero out of pot on the flop and then play pokers for the big pot vs. TAG that probably didn't hit that very uncoordinated flop?

... 65/75/85 that he tried to semibluff on the uncoordinated flop and get to the river cheaply?


<font color="#666666"> (PS: And no-one is delaying the raise to the turn, right?) </font>

[Robin Foolz]

raising this river is bad. no flush folds, no set folds, no straight folds. maybe a very stubborn Q calls, like QK. that's it. raise has no value and no bluff equity.

i think it's clear we call here. villains consistently and randomly bluff scare cards, and this one ain't an exception. pot's big and we have a set.

[Mitke]

The thing about this hand IMO is that I'm having trouble to put the Villain on any hand that has a 5 in it that cold-calls preflop and raises the flop. T9 I think might be in a LAG's cold-call range and could be played as he did. T9 picks a double-gutshot on the turn as well. Yet, the straight doesn't look too likely.

FD is a backdoor so it isn't very likely either.

Q8/Q7/Q6/87/86/76 is I think the range we'd be hoping to get a call from.

I'd like to think a fold to a 3bet would be safe but getting 16.5:1 it's never safe here.


So I think we'd need to be ahead here something like 60% of the time here to risk a 3-bet. I think a straight will not 3-bet this too often.

[mute]

Call.

[Oink]

What 5x hands does he call 2 with preflop and raise this flop with?

He doesnt have a 5.

EDIT: Hmm 55 makesd sense and so does T9. I wouldnt raise. Folding is still terrible tho

The backdoor flush is a possibillity. However its more likely that he has a worse hand.

This is much closer to a raise than a fold. Folding here is so absurdly retarded I puked a little bit.

[Entity]

If you think he can have 76 here, then why can't he have 75? I don't think either of those hands are really in his range.

Q5? Realistically I think you're up against 2pr a small % of the time, 1pr trying to prevent you from taking a FSD some small % of the time (lol), and that 1pr doesn't pay you off while 2pr does. Raise/call would be pretty bad on this board (he'll have QXss a lot). If you pick up stove and weight all his hands that play the flop this way and bet and call a raise, I really doubt you'll have 66% equity (if you're intending on calling a 3-bet) or even 50% if you're thinking about folding.

So yeah. I call.

Rob

[Mitke]

[ QUOTE ]
If you think he can have 76 here, then why can't he have 75? I don't think either of those hands are really in his range.

Q5? Realistically I think you're up against 2pr a small % of the time, 1pr trying to prevent you from taking a FSD some small % of the time (lol), and that 1pr doesn't pay you off while 2pr does. Raise/call would be pretty bad on this board (he'll have QXss a lot).

So yeah. I call.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]
Calling this was my choice also on the Finnish site I picked this from. However, as some guys there were seriously considering of raising this I decided to post this here too.

The consensus there seem to be like Oink here said the a 5X is very rarely in Villain's range -&gt; so the straight shouldn't be that big a worry.

Another comment on the straight possibilities was that a straight will not 3-bet this very often -&gt; maybe lowering the equity we need to have to raise(?) as we don't get charged the maximum.

I think 55 and T9 are the only probable straights here: both could be played like this to shutout Hero from the pot on a quite uncoordinated flop. For the same reasoning on flop 77 is possible, it picks a gutshot on turn as well. 88 slowplaying is a distant possibility.

The other gutshots that could hit two pair or straight are: 76,75,65. However, these aren't very likely semibluffing / free card raising hands on the flop because they'd be looking at hitting 3rd pair on top of their gutshot outs.

However, T9 and JT could play this way to hit 2nd pair + gutshot + maybe a BDFD.

A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]X[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] hands aren't likely as AK caps usually preflop and AQ would probably raise earlier as well. All other A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]X[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] hands are nearly impossible as even 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is in Hero's hand. Well, maybe A5 could peel one on the flop.

For cold-calling preflop, I think QX two pairs are pretty rare here, Q8 just maybe if he's really loose, as are the 76,65,75 hands. 87 is then again more likely, picking a gutshot on turn to help and the two-pair on river.

[ QUOTE ]
If you pick up stove and weight all his hands that play the flop this way and bet and call a raise, I really doubt you'll have 66% equity (if you're intending on calling a 3-bet) or even 50% if you're thinking about folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the Villain's probable holdings are:

Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] / Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] / Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] &gt; K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] &gt; 77/55 &gt; 87 &gt; J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] &gt; T9 &gt; 66 &gt; A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] / A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] &gt; 88 &gt; A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] &gt; 86/76/65/75/85 &gt; bluff donk

I doubt very few hands would fold to a raise getting 14.5:1.

[danzasmack]

[ QUOTE ]
Call.

[/ QUOTE ]