A situation.. (turn the nuts)

CruS · #1 10-05-2007, 12:21 AM

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($16.90)
UTG ($31)
MP ($25.45)
CO ($23.05)
Hero ($24.65)
SB ($32.85)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP raises to $1, 1 fold, Hero calls $1, 2 folds.

Flop: ($2.35) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP bets $1.8, Hero calls $1.80.

Turn: ($5.95) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP bets $3.9

Ok, here is the deal.
If I KNOW he has either AK, set or middle PP which he is bluffing with here. Also I think this player is confident and aggressive enough to fire a third barrel.
Can I ever justify just calling the turn?

Reasoning: If he has a set or AK the money is going in on the turn and he will be a dog. If I just call knowing his hand I know the money will go in on the river either way. But if the river brings another A or K I can just call and get away cheap if he has me, and take the pot if he was bluffing w/ a mid PP.

I know raising here is STD but if you have my exact reads here, can you justify a call?

DJSHAD0W · #2 10-05-2007, 12:28 AM

No !!
If you know he has AK, AQ, AA, QQ or 44 and you know the money goes in on the turn you gotta do it now. So what if you lose 10-20% of the time. I think you lose a lot of value if a J, 10 or diamond hits the river and kills your action.
If he just has a mid pair you have already gotten everything you are gonna get unless he is a complete moran and will bet 55-JJ on the river again.

CruS · #3 10-05-2007, 12:32 AM

I do think raising is the best option here, but please read what I said. IF i KNOW he has AK or a set (no AQ) and I think he WILL fire a 3rd barrel w/ 55-JJ CAN I justify a call?

Peleus · #4 10-05-2007, 12:40 AM

You're not going to get money out of the bluffing person, even on the river. So waiting does not benefit us there.
You're not going to get the person with a set or AK to be more willing to put their money in, without a card that beats you (i.e. pairing board), so there is no good card to come for us on the river.

On the river in fact there isn't a single card that can improve the situation for us, only make it worse. Get you're money in now, its the best situation you've got.

By your logic of getting away cheap we should never get our money in with the nuts on the flop just check it down in case a flush comes 'so if it does you can get away cheap'.

Protect your hand.

CruS · #5 10-05-2007, 12:43 AM

I know this, but you are both ignoring the fact that I said IF: my read is so that I think he WILL fire a 3d barrel here, CAN I justify a call?

CruS · #6 10-05-2007, 12:50 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You're not going to get money out of the bluffing person, even on the river. So waiting does not benefit us there.
You're not going to get the person with a set or AK to be more willing to put their money in, without a card that beats you (i.e. pairing board), so there is no good card to come for us on the river.

On the river in fact there isn't a single card that can improve the situation for us, only make it worse. Get you're money in now, its the best situation you've got.

By your logic of getting away cheap we should never get our money in with the nuts on the flop just check it down in case a flush comes 'so if it does you can get away cheap'.

Protect your hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

So not what I am trying to say at all. A flush draw would never pay of if it does not hit, obv I bet if I think he has a flush draw, but that was not the case. I am not saying this is a real hand, I am just trying to figure out a situation where I can justify a call on the turn w/ this straight here.

TTStrangler · #7 10-05-2007, 01:36 AM

If I understand this correctly you're saying Villain basically can turn his hand over show you his cards, then tell you no matter what comes on the river he's pushing. In that situation, can you just call on the turn?

Is this right? If so, interesting situation, I wish I was good enough to give a solid answer, but it almost sounds like you could just call if that was the situation.

CruS · #8 10-05-2007, 01:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If I understand this correctly you're saying Villain basically can turn his hand over show you his cards, then tell you no matter what comes on the river he's pushing. In that situation, can you just call on the turn?

Is this right? If so, interesting situation, I wish I was good enough to give a solid answer, but it almost sounds like you could just call if that was the situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes you are in my thinking here, this PLUS the fact that if he is bluffing I can get some more.

Peleus · #9 10-05-2007, 03:16 AM

Ok - lets look a little more in depth.

We estimate they have a set 33%, AK 33%, and bluffing 33%, fair enough?

We have one card to go, and we're weight up calling / raising.

No card can come and improve our hand. The following cards put us to a tough decision on the river, or beat us. Any A, any K, any Q, any 4. The following cards probably kill our action, any J, any T. Thats 18 cards that can come which we will not like, or beat us. Thats ~40% of the time we won't see a card we like. ~26% of the time it beats us, ~14% it kills our action. Let say for arguments sake he isn't going to bluff into a 4 card straight, and just give up, if its a blank he'll bluff.

The pot is currently is $9.85, lets say you call.

Pot becomes $13.75. River comes...

If its a blank (happens ~ 61%) He fires out a 2/3 of pot bet ($9). Lets say you shove then. 66% of the time he will call your shove (AK / Set), 33% of the time he will fold (bluff.) EV is 33% = $22.75, 66% = $49.5, so on average we get $40.

If its an action killer (6/46 ~ 13%)- He checks, we do a pot sized bet, he calls lets say because its so scary, 50% / 50% (which I think is a stretch, but). 50% we get a pot of $27.5, 50% we get a pot of $13.75, on average we get a pot of $20.60

If board pairs (A/K) (6/46 ~13%) -
Again have to assume certain things. Lets you you're prepared to call an all in, because you'd be shoving for value if he bets out anyway and not much left behind. He leads out for $9, you shove, he calls 66% and folds 33%. On average you loose $49.5 66%, and make $22.75 33%. Average its a loss of $25.4

Board pairs (non A/K) (6/46 ~ 13%)
Same assumptions. Leads out for $9, you shove. He calls lets say with 50% of the time with AK thinking its still good . Thats 33% call for a loss of $49.5, its a call 13.5% with AK for a gain of $49.5, and a fold 46.5% for a gain of $22.75, on average - $0.92 in the black.

What it means
61% we make $40, 13% we make $20.60, 13% we loose $25.40, 13% we make $0.92 - Our EV for calling is $23.88

Now shoving
Lets say he will call with AK and set, fold middle pair. In all cases (unless folds), pot will be $49.5

AK 33%
On average make $36.65

Set 33%
On average make $27.72

Fold 33%
Will make $9.85

We will make on average $24.75 from shoving.

We will make more on average from shoving then calling ($24.75 vs $23.88). I also think some of the calling numbers are a bit generous on the river. Probably a bigger difference.

Nick C · #10 10-05-2007, 04:02 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If I understand this correctly you're saying Villain basically can turn his hand over show you his cards, then tell you no matter what comes on the river he's pushing. In that situation, can you just call on the turn?

Is this right? If so, interesting situation, I wish I was good enough to give a solid answer, but it almost sounds like you could just call if that was the situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the situation were as you describe (villain shows you his cards and announces he will open-push any river if you call turn), then calling the turn would be by far the best play.

Edit: Well, except for if he might be lying about that open push . . .