QJ

Riku · #1 10-12-2007, 05:06 AM

Only had 40 hands on villain, 40/15/2AF

PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (7 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
3 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, SB calls, 1 fold.

Flop: (5 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls.

Turn: (3.50 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, Hero...

Tricky spot. Some chance he's bluffing + 4 outs to a boat (although i don't think we can assign full 4 outs) + 2 K outs to a chop with a straight + size of the pot = call down ?

/Riku

I R BABOON · #2 10-12-2007, 05:24 AM

:g:

Though one. He could have something like a 'slowplayed' KQ or KJ and now made his straight or also QJ and made 2 pair. I think it's safe to say you shouldn't discount the K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] so I'd count it as 2 outs for the 4 K's because of the likely split if it hits, 2 Q's, 2J's = 6 outs.

6.5-1 for a 6.8 to call. If you hit a Q or J and he has a straight you can be sure he'll pay you at least 1 more bet. I call and hope the river brings me something good.

neurotiq · #3 10-12-2007, 06:51 AM

I'd probably call down, for all the reasons you mentioned already.

Mitke · #4 10-12-2007, 07:03 AM

[ QUOTE ]
(although i don't think we can assign full 4 outs)/Riku

[/ QUOTE ]
I think we can assign the full 4 outs. I'd think a villain with those stats 3-bets AJ, AQ, AA, JJ (and AT for that matter) from SB against a steal preflop, most of the time.

One K brings a potential flush. I think we can pretty safely assume that if villain is ahead it is with a K or 98 (possible) and not AT,AJ or AQ. So we have something like 5.5 outs.

Call-down is 7.5:2 + probably 1BB implied winnings if we hit. ~8.5:2. Not that good. However, we QT, QJ might play this way too. And maybe he's being tricky with some FD or something on scare card.

If absolutely convinced we are behind, we can just about peel the turn assuming that's the last money going in.

Mitke · #5 10-12-2007, 07:08 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's safe to say you shouldn't discount the ... Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
You are right, it gives us a full house. AQ is not likely.

I R BABOON · #6 10-12-2007, 07:16 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think it's safe to say you shouldn't discount the ... Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
You are right, it gives us a full house. AQ is not likely.

[/ QUOTE ]
[img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Fantam · #7 10-12-2007, 08:54 AM

I think that I would call the turn raise, but fold the river unimproved.

I think that SB most likely has a K.

scpi10 · #8 10-12-2007, 11:56 AM

Call down and make a note.