Staking Question

[Keepitsimple]

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Keep,

I cant figure how to do it myself or I would, but would you(or someone else well versed in these things) run the following.

10000,14,2,15000,0.5

10000,14,1,15000,0.5

30000,14,2,15000,0.5

30000,14,1,15000,0.5

This isnt LHE, its razz..so no the 14 StdDev isnt a typo.

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The lower STD combined with the "unlimited" bankroll makes this very EV. But I would use caution since the short term results in poker isnt normally distributed.

10000,14,2,15000,0.5: 97 (This would obv be 100 if he never busted)
10000,14,1,15000,0.5: 40
30000,14,2,15000,0.5: 299
30000,14,1,15000,0.5: 143

[admiralfluff]

Another thinkg to keep in mind is that if he is down towards the end of a fixed time/hands stake his play will change. He may not do it with concious and malicious intent, but it will happen.

[mntbikr15]

Yea just realized that the 15000 that I put in reped BB not dollar amount.

Im told a 250 BB bankroll is solid for razz, so thats what we were thinking

[Keepitsimple]

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Yea just realized that the 15000 that I put in reped BB not dollar amount.

Im told a 250 BB bankroll is solid for razz, so thats what we were thinking

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I tested to plugin some weird numbers and the model doesnt really behave as I would have expected. On the other hand I have never been good at statistics..

For your example mntbikr15. 250BB is enough given the other assumptions. You just dont bust that often. However it just doesnt seem right.. :/

10000,14,2,15000,0.5: 96
10000,14,1,15000,0.5: 37
30000,14,2,15000,0.5: 296
30000,14,1,15000,0.5: 133

Hopefully someone who is a math guru can comment. For example if you put in a STD which is very large compared to your stake. I assumed you would lose a lot. However the off chance of a huge score and the fact that you can only lose the original stake appearently make it very EV. This is obviously very wrong but it might be the assumption of poker being normally distributed thats the culprit and not the program itself. So we have to feed the model "nice" variables to get something out of it. Well enough rambling. Please someone who is good at math comment.

[jimmyfingers]

one problem with your model is it just looks at the final result. so if the person goes below 0 and then comes back it counts that as a positive amount instead of the 0 it would be in reality (since the person would stop playing after hitting 0).

to correct this you'd have to model it in smaller chunks. for example, instead of using the final results for 10000 hands, run 10000 individual hands, summing after each one, and if it ever goes below 0 end the simulation. this would represent one trial of 10000 hands.

with a very high standard deviation, of course there will be some huge wins, but there's a very good chance you went bust before getting those wins.

edit: this will not make a big difference if the probability of busting is ~= 0 (low standard deviation, high starting bankroll, and/or small number of hands).

[admiralfluff]

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one problem with your model is it just looks at the final result. so if the person goes below 0 and then comes back it counts that as a positive amount instead of the 0 it would be in reality (since the person would stop playing after hitting 0).

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I don't think so, he is running a loop iteration for every hand, and has a break condition if the amount of the stake is ever <= 0.

[jimmyfingers]

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one problem with your model is it just looks at the final result. so if the person goes below 0 and then comes back it counts that as a positive amount instead of the 0 it would be in reality (since the person would stop playing after hitting 0).

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I don't think so, he is running a loop iteration for every hand, and has a break condition if the amount of the stake is ever <= 0.

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oh, yeah you're right (well, it's every 100 hands, but still). i didn't look closely enough at the code. disregard that problem then