ZeeJustin Prop Bet

[coltranedog]

We had an interesting discussion regarding WSOP ME equity at our Day 1 table of the Bellagio Cup. ZeeJustin said he'd like to be able to pay 800 bucks for 1% of 20 players of his choosing for next years WSOP Main Event.

Mike Wattel instantly said "I'll take that bet" and the discussion continued. What do you guys think the right price is? Obviously ZJ made a bad bet because he surely could have had a bet accepted at around 400-500 bucks, but do you think he still has the best of it?

[LennartZ]

no, to much luck involved in tournaments, to big of a minefield/donkfest.

[Jeffmet3]

[ QUOTE ]
We had an interesting discussion regarding WSOP ME equity at our Day 1 table of the Bellagio Cup. ZeeJustin said he'd like to be able to pay 800 bucks for 1% of 20 players of his choosing for next years WSOP Main Event.

Mike Wattel instantly said "I'll take that bet" and the discussion continued. What do you guys think the right price is? Obviously ZJ made a bad bet because he surely could have had a bet accepted at around 400-500 bucks, but do you think he still has the best of it?

[/ QUOTE ]

$800 a person... i'm dumb

[Apathy]

Nobody has over an 800% roi in the Main event IMO. It is easily the softest 10k of the year but 800% is too high.

[FatalError]

edit:clarifiedh

[Apathy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
We had an interesting discussion regarding WSOP ME equity at our Day 1 table of the Bellagio Cup. ZeeJustin said he'd like to be able to pay 800 bucks for 1% of 20 players of his choosing for next years WSOP Main Event.

Mike Wattel instantly said "I'll take that bet" and the discussion continued. What do you guys think the right price is? Obviously ZJ made a bad bet because he surely could have had a bet accepted at around 400-500 bucks, but do you think he still has the best of it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't he getting at least $2k in equity for just $800 making it a great bet? 10,000 x .01 = $100 x 20 = $2k

Then assuming the people he picks have large edges, isn't this a huge EV bet?

correct me if i'm dumb and messed up math

[/ QUOTE ]


he surely meant $800 per player.

[RubbishCards]

I assumed he meant $800 per player, otherwise the bet doesn't really make sense. So that means he's putting up $16k and needs his horses to cash for a total of $1.6 million to break even?

[coltranedog]

Sorry if I was unclear, yes 800 bucks per player.

[Ship Ship McGipp]

800% is too high. i'd imagine good solid players around 200 to 300 and real good players beterrn 300 and 500, i can't imagine anyone about that, not that we'l ever have the long run to prove it

[aaronbeen]

Justin I challenge you to crossbook me against any of your picks giving me 3-1. If you decline I assume that means you are interested in buying my action at $266 for 1% and I'll be happy to sell you a nice chunk.