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#32
06-25-2007, 03:23 PM
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Re: please post longterm ptbb at given stakes
Another ?:
How are you defining 30k breakeven. For instance you drop 15 buyins over 8k hands, it then takes you 22k hands to win those 15 buyin backs, that is a 30k breakeven, correct? 
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#33
06-25-2007, 03:34 PM
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Re: please post longterm ptbb at given stakes
[ QUOTE ]
Another ?: How are you defining 30k breakeven. For instance you drop 15 buyins over 8k hands, it then takes you 22k hands to win those 15 buyin backs, that is a 30k breakeven, correct? [/ QUOTE ] yup.
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#35
06-25-2007, 03:40 PM
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Re: please post longterm ptbb at given stakes
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] can everyone stop posting sample sizes of under 150K hands? k thx [/ QUOTE ] sry we don't all run at 2ptbb/100 but play a gagillion hands per day [/ QUOTE ] then the accuracy of your results are almost worthless [/ QUOTE ] o rly? [/ QUOTE ] Yup, winrate takes a really long time to converge properly. You can have a high theoretical winrate and still break even for close to 30k hands, which is why you need really large samples. [/ QUOTE ] plz come up with an exact number where they converge with reasoning, otherwise i will just continue to think you have no statistical background at all. why is 150k the magic number? how do you take in account the level that a player is playing at? why can't players be playing like [censored] for 30k hands? yadadada [/ QUOTE ] I'm beating 3/6 NL for 15.36 BB/100 for ~21K hands I'm beating 2/4 NL for 0.52 BB/100 for ~30K hands this month while 8-12 tabling. come on now, its pretty hard to determine your winrate.
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#36
06-25-2007, 04:03 PM
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Re: please post longterm ptbb at given stakes
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] plz come up with an exact number where they converge with reasoning, otherwise i will just continue to think you have no statistical background at all. why is 150k the magic number? how do you take in account the level that a player is playing at? why can't players be playing like [censored] for 30k hands? yadadada [/ QUOTE ] 150K is not a "magic number". I just threw out an arbitrarily large number that is not quite the long run but not quite meaningless. [ QUOTE ] To calculate this you'd need to know a typical standard deviation for aggressive, short handed games. You can get this in PokerTracker by clicking "more detail" on the session notes tab. The value will be in BB/100. Once you have this, you can calculate the 95% confidence interval around your winrate like this: true winrate = reported winrate ± 1.96 * standard_deviation/sqrt(hands/100) [/ QUOTE ] and 1 in 20 times, a persons true winrate will be outside the range you get from this calculation [/ QUOTE ] side note....that equation is most likely worthless as it doesn't look like poker winrates are gaussian when scatter plotted. YOu need a different distribution assumption IMO.
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#38
06-25-2007, 04:18 PM
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Re: please post longterm ptbb at given stakes
dont know if this is appropriate, but here is the graph of my last 244k hands since 1st october in BB. as you can see, there is 1 breakeven spell from 52K to 79K (so 27K breakeven) and from 106K to 122K (16K breakeven)
other than i dont think there is any more than 10K hand breakeven. hence probably why i rant so much in the main thread whenever i have a bad couple of days (okay, hour even). the line i think shows my winrate being higher in the first half (as i was playing 1-2nl and bit of 2-4nl whereas now mostly 3-6nl with bit of 2-4nl and 5-10nl). 
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