AK vs. river push (NLTRN $11)

dippy111 · #1 08-23-2007, 06:42 PM

~20 hands in. Villain has been pretty tight and sf so far, raising about half of his hands and folding the rest otb. This is my first 3bet

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (2 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button (t1540)
Hero (t1460)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Button raises to t60, Hero raises to t180, Button calls t120.

Flop: (t360) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets t260, Button calls t260.

Turn: (t880) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: (t880) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets t1100 (All-In), Hero?

Wtf is villains range here? This is the first time he's done something like this. And in the chat box, while I was thinking, he wrote gg [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].

ChicagoRy · #2 08-23-2007, 06:50 PM

I think it's hero call time.

A2, A3 and a set are about the only things that make sense for villain to play like this. Obviously people do weird [censored] sometimes and you see a 4 sometimes. You have to include a hand like 67 as well I suppose but it sounds like I'd lean towards the thinking that his PF call was with a pretty narrow and strong range. Against this villain I'm calling a lot here and expecting to see a weaker ace or some sort of a K. I discount strong PPs here for the most part.

My opinion might change if you told me he's been super passive with strong hands in raised pots (not just a slowplay, but just a general playing big hands slowly and overbetting rivers). Doesn't look like you have that sort of info though, as stack sizes are pretty close.

vodoo · #3 08-24-2007, 06:59 AM

i dont think you can really call this.

Most of the time when people are writing stuff like that i think they more often have the nuts or near to it then they are bluffing.

looks to me that he is begging for a call with sth. like A3.

Donk move with 99 might be possible.

overpair on the flop, scared on the turn, makes fh on the river and pushes all-in...

how_can_losing? · #4 08-24-2007, 12:59 PM

I'm with vodoo on this one, especially if villain is "tight and straightforward. I would think 99, 55, 44 are all possible here.

I doubt villain is value shoving a pair here, so the range is polarized. So you don't have to worry about calling and losing to A9 or something. But this isn't a cash game. If you lose this hand, you're done. If you fold now you have over 1k; if he is tight and sf the chip disadvantage is not huge.

If you had a different read, this could be a call, but not for this villain.

ChicagoRy · #5 08-24-2007, 03:09 PM

Tight and straight forward doesn't fit with his line. I tend to call more when players play "out of their element." 40% or so of the time you have to be winning for this to be profitable, I think you win 40% of the time, but like I said previously you may change my mind by providing other info.

vodoo · #6 08-24-2007, 04:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Tight and straight forward doesn't fit with his line. I tend to call more when players play "out of their element." 40% or so of the time you have to be winning for this to be profitable, I think you win 40% of the time, but like I said previously you may change my mind by providing other info.

[/ QUOTE ]

does this mean that he has to be bluffing there 40% of the time to make it +EV?
Im confused, how did you get on this number?

waxhax0rs · #7 08-24-2007, 04:45 PM

Actually he has to be bluffing 35% of the time or more for it to be profitable. I arrived at this number via maths.

waxhax0rs · #8 08-24-2007, 04:53 PM

To be honest I think he is bluffing less than 35% of the time. This line looks like a monster (or at least your opponent thinks it's a monster, ie any overpair). The problem is I've rarely actually seen what my opponents have when they take this line because I usually don't have something to call with. It's you say your opponent is tight...do tight players typically bluff allin on the river? That's what I'd ask.

laser16 · #9 08-24-2007, 05:00 PM

You represented exactly the hand u have and so u think to yourself if he can hand read he is gonna be pushing me off on the river here so I should call. Problem is that most people in the $11s even the ones who play decent cant hand read so he is probably just fist pumping that your thinking about calling when he has a boat. Obv some people make dumb bluffs at dumb times but I think hes ahead of u enough that this a fold.

ChicagoRy · #10 08-24-2007, 05:39 PM

If you think the only hand that beats you that he shoves with is a boat then I would definitely call.

Players bluff when they see weakness on the river here, you checked the turn and river, a tight player is more likely to shove here with AT compared to A5. That is why I call.