Trickier Sit N Go Question

[ryanghall]

This isn't tricky at all. You call.

Ryan

[blackize]

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I'm surprised no one has mentioned that when you just call, you leave the BB the opportunity to get off the hand.

Say the BB has rags, 46 or something. Flop comes KT9. SB bets, BB decides to just fold and hope you call. Do you fold at this point? Ya, you probably but should, but you're really wishing you just raised preflop in this spot. (Maybe also it comes KJx and you do call, and the SB shows QT... again, you're wishing you had raised preflop.)

I still think call is better, but the BB's option to fold a missed flop (which doesn't exist when you raise) is a noteworthy aspect of this hand.

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This ignores that all 4 players are "good" a "good" SB is pushing 100% when you limp on the button here

[willie24]

if you fold you have exactly a 50% chance of obtaining at least 3rd place on this hand...and you have exactly 1100 chips afterwords.
if you fold and BB wins, you will then push most hands UTG, and have about a 40-45% chance at a 2500-3100 pot (most of the time). you will probably let very bad UTG hands go, since you have no FE, and take your chances in the BB instead (and also hope that the SB, now w/1400 ends up allin on your UTG fold hand).
if you fold and BB loses, you will be something like 45% in the BB the next hand to win a 2200-2500 pot.
summary: 0% to bust. 50% to lock up 3rd. 1100chips on ave

If you push KJ on the button, the SB will call, what...30% of hands? I'm not sure, that's just a guess based on experience. if he does, we will hope that BB calls, but he may fold. if BB folds, leaving 100, you will figure to be about 50% to bust, and about 50% to win a 2800 stack.
the other 70% of the time you push- (when SB folds), you will end up against a random hand for a 1700 pot...with 400 remaining in your stack. what is KJ against a random hand? 60% or something?
summary: ~12% to bust. ~1360 chips on average ~58% chance to lock up 3rd. (if you assume the 100 stack is ~50% to bust in the SB the next hand when you win 2800 and he folds)

If you call, SB will either call or push. Many SBs will just call, and attempt to "gang up" on BB...but very strong SBs obviously will look for a way to use this situation to increase their chips. just pushing any 2 would be a superior play for the SB than calling. another option would be to just call and then bet any flop...which is probably not quite as bad for you, but almost.
if SB pushes and BB folds, and you also fold, you are left with 500. in this scenario, the shortstack will be allin on the SB next hand. you will fold almost every hand in UTG and see what happens. smallstack will bust out on this hand something like 58% of the time...and you will be left with only 500 chips every time.
summary: bust 0%, lock up 3rd 58%, you will be left with 500 in the BB(or something that is comparable EV-wise should you call UTG) every hand. if you dont lock up 3rd, your chances of busting out 4th on the next hand are about 58%. so you could say your effective bust % is more like 24%.

if SB pushes and BB calls, and you call, your results are pretty straightforwward: about 20% to bust out in 4th, about 70% to lock up 3rd. an average of about ~1100 chips.

If SB does NOT push, but rather just calls and plays tagteam, then you are about 70% to lock up 3rd, and you have about a 40% chance of winning about a 2100-2500chip pot (with maybe 0-500 left in your stack). in this scenario, we will not consider busting to be a bad thing UNLESS the shortstack survives. your chance of busting while the shortstack lives here is small. maybe 5%.
summary: bust out (in 4th) 5%, lock up 3rd 70%, you are left with an average of about ~1200 chips.

obviously calling is the best option if you know SB would play tagteam or if you know BB will call any 2. However, it is the worst option if you know SB will try to raise you out and that BB will fold. if it was 50-50 for the SB to push and the BB to fold, you should not call. where is the point where it is right to just call? so much of this math is approximations and educated guesses that i can't be confident i'm anywhere near to right, but my guess is about 25%. if SB raises AND BB folds less than 25%, then you should call. Otherwise you should probably push. (although folding is close and i'm not sure)

The only bad play you can make here is- calling- when you know the SB is an aggressive type who will usually raise, and the BB is an "i just want to make the money" type will almost always fold. if you don't have that information, then no play you make is very bad relative to any other. (similarly, if you know that SB is the type who ALWAYS gangs up, then pushing or folding is a bad play)

edit: also, pushing is a bad play if you know that SB is a wild head-hunter type who will always call. in that case you should fold. so this ends up being a very read-dependant hand. any option can be right depending on your reads. (despite the fact that it is bubble-hand and you would expect it to be straight-math)

[ALawPoker]

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This ignores that all 4 players are "good" a "good" SB is pushing 100% when you limp on the button here

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Calling from the SB is almost never best, but I didn't take the "good" qualifier to mean that the players were incapable of making mistakes. "Good" is sort of vague, so I basically ignored it. You are right though, if we can assume the SB is unlikely to make a mistake, the small benefit for raising that I mentioned is moot.

[blackize]

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if you fold you have exactly a 50% chance of obtaining at least 3rd place on this hand...and you have exactly 1100 chips afterwords.
if you fold and BB wins, you will then push most hands UTG, and have about a 40-45% chance at a 2500-3100 pot (most of the time). you will probably let very bad UTG hands go, since you have no FE, and take your chances in the BB instead (and also hope that the SB, now w/1400 ends up allin on your UTG fold hand).
if you fold and BB loses, you will be something like 45% in the BB the next hand to win a 2200-2500 pot.
summary: 0% to bust. 50% to lock up 3rd. 1100chips on ave

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You aren't 50% to lock up 3rd since the SB will fold to the BB a good portion of the time so that he can push from the button next hand and pick up an extra BB.

You should fold bottom 50% hands UTG as you will be called and expect to see a better hand in the BB anyways. So you're pushing a top 50% hand UTG. So ~25% of the time you double up UTG and are no longer in absolutely dire shape.


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If you push KJ on the button, the SB will call, what...30% of hands? I'm not sure, that's just a guess based on experience. if he does, we will hope that BB calls, but he may fold. if BB folds, leaving 100, you will figure to be about 50% to bust, and about 50% to win a 2800 stack.
the other 70% of the time you push- (when SB folds), you will end up against a random hand for a 1700 pot...with 400 remaining in your stack. what is KJ against a random hand? 60% or something?
summary: ~12% to bust. ~1360 chips on average ~58% chance to lock up 3rd. (if you assume the 100 stack is ~50% to bust in the SB the next hand when you win 2800 and he folds)

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I'm assuming a "good" SB can put you on an accurate range of hands so assume that if you're pushing KJ here he knows that you are capable of pushing KJ here. If you push 44+,A7s+,A9o+,KJs+ from the button it is correft for the SB to call 91% of hands and this increases as your range gets larger. A "good" BB will fold when he sees you get all in with the SB, so you become ~60% to survive and there is still the small chance that you still bust in 4th.

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If you call, SB will either call or push. Many SBs will just call, and attempt to "gang up" on BB...but very strong SBs obviously will look for a way to use this situation to increase their chips. just pushing any 2 would be a superior play for the SB than calling. another option would be to just call and then bet any flop...which is probably not quite as bad for you, but almost.

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A good SB would either push 100% preflop or call and bet any flop. Both times you should only get all in if the BB gets all in in front of you.

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obviously calling is the best option if you know SB would play tagteam or if you know BB will call any 2. However, it is the worst option if you know SB will try to raise you out and that BB will fold.

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Folding is bad as the SB won't push often so that he can steal from the button next hand and net an extra BB.

Pushing is terrible as you end up HU with the SB while the BB sits out very close to 100% of the time.

That leaves us with calling. Calling encourages the SB to push which forces the BB to make a decision for his tournament life before you.

[LandonM]

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landon,

that reasoning is terrible.

c

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cit,

landon is reasoning? I thought he was randomly stringing together words.

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Yeah, you guys sure make a helluva case in your favor. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

(Willie24 makes a pretty compelling case, but I'm still pushing with Kings)

[LandonM]

( ^ Oops. King/Jack ^ )

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No.

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Yes.

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Good late game SNG play is picking up chips without confrontation. You will usually be called by the SB and if not, you will ALWAYS be called by the BB. By limping you allow yourself to get away when the SB gets involved and the BB doesn't, forcing the BB all in next hand. By calling and having 2 hands to beat the BB you increase your chances of cashing drastically.

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Man, why is it that I'm obviously just so wrong here, yet I keep on winning these darn things to the tune of not having to work a real job?
Oh, yeah. It's because of the thinking above. I thank you and people like you most sincerely.

If the BB calls with "whatever", I welcome that when I'm holding K/J in a situation where my entire stack equals a blind and a half. Same with whatever SB has. When the rotation is going to determine my entire fate in the next couple hands, yes, i'll go with K/J every single time.

The only (and I do mean only) thing that suggests jockeying for a cash here by playing an otherwise good hand indecisively by "calling" would be a particular knowledge of an opponent that would vary anything I've said above. Absent that, this is, apparently, a classic example of the most popular answer being the wrong answer (Only in the Sklansky forum...)
Of course, maybe this is why my variance is bit higher than a lot of the "Call" group- that strange, bizarre willingness to put in with the best hand at almost any point... But it's net-winner thus far.

[blackize]

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Man, why is it that I'm obviously just so wrong here, yet I keep on winning these darn things to the tune of not having to work a real job?
Oh, yeah. It's because of the thinking above. I thank you and people like you most sincerely.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not only are you being entirely condescending, you aren't even backing up your claims.

Edit: You being completely wrong in a situation like this isn't going to cause you to be a losing player since it comes up so infrequently. Your defense of "I'm a winning player so I'm right" no longer applies.


[ QUOTE ]
If the BB calls with "whatever", I welcome that when I'm holding K/J in a situation where my entire stack equals a blind and a half. Same with whatever SB has. When the rotation is going to determine my entire fate in the next couple hands, yes, i'll go with K/J every single time.

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If you are pushing KJo here it is correct for the SB to call with 100%. It is then correct for the BB to fold 100%. Now you've got a 40-45% chance of busting. If for some reason the SB isn't as good as David's question made him out to and he folds, you're still about 40% to get all but screwed.

If you limp here the optimal play is for the SB to push 100%. Now if the BB calls you're ~30% to bust by calling. If the BB folds there is at least a 50% chance the he busts the next hand.

[blackize]

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that strange, bizarre willingness to put in with the best hand at almost any point... But it's net-winner thus far.

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You do realize that in a SNG each chip you win is worth less than each chip you lose, correct?

This can be realized through a simple exercise in logic. Assume a standard 10 person game with a 5-3-2 payout structure. You buy in for $200, your stack is worth exactly $200(not taking into account any skill differential). You now proceed to win the tournament and have all the chips in play. Your stack is worth $1000 rather than the $2000 you would expect if the value of chips were to stay the same throughout.

[willie24]

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You aren't 50% to lock up 3rd since the SB will fold to the BB a good portion of the time so that he can push from the button next hand and pick up an extra BB.

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really? i don't know if folding would be worth it for many. you think a big stack is going to give up obvious EV by folding the SB in order to push another big stack the next hand (which gives him a chance of busting) with 2 tiny stacks left? i doubt it, unless he is significant chip leader (which i don't think he is from OP). besides, the 400 he may lose by "completing" is probably not enough to stop him from pushing next hand (if that is the right play) anyway. I think a good SB folds here almost never.

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You should fold bottom 50% hands UTG as you will be called and expect to see a better hand in the BB anyways. So you're pushing a top 50% hand UTG.

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OK - you convinced me on this one. I agree.

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I'm assuming a "good" SB can put you on an accurate range of hands so assume that if you're pushing KJ here he knows that you are capable of pushing KJ here. If you push 44+,A7s+,A9o+,KJs+ from the button it is correft for the SB to call 91% of hands and this increases as your range gets larger. A "good" BB will fold when he sees you get all in with the SB, so you become ~60% to survive and there is still the small chance that you still bust in 4th.

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91%? really? this must assume that SB assumes BB folds. I believe you that it is correct to call if you make that assumption, but in reality i don't see it happening even half the time, even from "good" players. most of the time, the SB will give you credit for a better range than you actually have here...and he will NOT assume that the BB is a lock to fold. Also, I'm not positive that it is correct for the BB to always fold, even if SB does call a push. going by your range for me, and your calling range for SB (91%), BB must have ~30% chance at winning this pot with a random hand. since he is only ~40% to advance by folding, he should probably call most hands.

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A good SB would either push 100% preflop or call and bet any flop. Both times you should only get all in if the BB gets all in in front of you.


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I personally did not take "good" to mean perfect. i consider "good" to be a break-even player or better. there are many, many winning players who are not good ENOUGH to push the SB here. yes its a bad play not to, but that doesnt mean that the majority of "good" players do it. If it was an "optimal" player then I would agree with you.

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Folding is bad as the SB won't push often so that he can steal from the button next hand and net an extra BB

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i don't buy it.

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Pushing is terrible as you end up HU with the SB while the BB sits out very close to 100% of the time

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again, i don't buy it. 30% may well be low, but your average "good" player certainly won't call with more than 50% of hands.

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That leaves us with calling. Calling encourages the SB to push which forces the BB to make a decision for his tournament life before you.

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any way you slice it, this is the worst scenario. even if we assume your notions about folding and pushing are true, this is worse. leaving yourself with 500 while the BB has 100 is a relatively terrible situation. - the BB only busts 58% of the time next hand. when he doesnt bust, YOU bust 58% of the time. that works out to 24% of the time YOU bust out. you have almost no chance to take 2nd or better.

By pushing and getting called by the SB 100% of the time, when BB folds 100% of the time (which is a ridiculous assumption), you are roughly ~40% to bust in 4th, and 60% to have 2800 and a good shot at 2nd or 1st. that is probably better than ~24% busting, ~1% for 2nd or better. If it isn't, it's pretty close. add in a few times when the SB folds, and a few times when the BB calls, and it's not close.

how often would the SB have to fold for folding to be worse than giving yourself 500 chips while the SB has 100? 50%? something like that? if the SB folds 50%, then the BB has only about a 30% chance of busting on this hand, you are going to be allin on the BB for a ~2300 pot with about a 44% chance...so figure you are going to bust in the BB about 28%...which is worse than 24%...but when you win, you get ~2300, which is better than 1000 (which is what you get when you win in the BB with 500chips). lets assume 28% busting/2300winning is equivalent to 24%busting/1000 winning (which it probably isn't). then SB has to fold 50% to make folding worse than calling when you know SB will raise. There is absolutely no way that SB folds more than 20% of hands.

Calling is only right if there is a decent chance SB will not push...or if there is a decent chance BB will call SBs push