[150NL] 88 Flopped set 550bb's Deep

[Benzooor]

Really interesting how much discussion this has generated.

Doesn't seem to be clear either way, but I think I've learned alot about deep-stack theory from the thread.

It's absolutely true that villain NEVER has AK.

However, even after the turn call, I don't know if villain open shoves 44 in this spot.

If I was in villains spot with 44 i'm definitely c/c rather than open shoving.

This is what leans it to a fold for me, as the only reasonable hands I can see him doing that combination of turn/river action with is AA/KK.

[kaby]

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If I was in villains spot with 44 i'm definitely c/c rather than open shoving.

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wow that's terrible

all better hands shove, and all worse hands check behind

if you think there is value in 3betting the turn with 44, shoving river >>>>>>>>>>> checking, and i even think c/f > c/c, because he's never shoving worse hands

a lot of posters have already said it but some people don't seem to get it so...

if villain is even halfway decent his range for 3betting the turn and shoving the river is _exactly_ the same

all hands that we call turn with should snapcall the river. there really isn't any thinking to do on the river. if he value 3bets the turn, he will shove the river. he's never folding a hand that value 3bets the turn to a shove, so he's going to showdown, and thus he shoves because worst hands always check behind (and it doens't matter if he has 44 or AK here, if he thinks AK is good enough to 3bet it's good enough to shove. no, he is not checkfolding, and shoving >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;><> c/c)

i can't believe some people call the turn and then are like 'wow he shoved river that changes things' wtf you should've been expecting this

the important decision in this hand is whether we call or fold to his turn 3bet. some posters seem to think it's close, some posters think it's an easy call because he plays AK like this a lot, i don't know i think it's close, leaning towards a call

but really, once you call the turn the river is an insta,snap,nobrainercall

[Benzooor]

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If I was in villains spot with 44 i'm definitely c/c rather than open shoving.

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wow that's terrible

all better hands shove, and all worse hands check behind

if you think there is value in 3betting the turn with 44, shoving >>>>>>>>>>> checking, and i think c/f > c/c, because he's never shoving worse hands

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And shoving the river with 44 only folds out hands you already beat.

Although you may be right about c/f being > c/c with 44 on the river.

[kaby]

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If I was in villains spot with 44 i'm definitely c/c rather than open shoving.

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wow that's terrible

all better hands shove, and all worse hands check behind

if you think there is value in 3betting the turn with 44, shoving >>>>>>>>>>> checking, and i think c/f > c/c, because he's never shoving worse hands

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And shoving the river with 44 only folds out hands you already beat.

Although you may be right about c/f being > c/c with 44 on the river.

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check my edit. if you, in villains shoes, think 44 is good enough to value3bet because we have like AK or A8 and call with that, then you have to shove the river because AK or A8 WILL NOT FOLD but will check behind

assuming two semi-decent players, ranges don't change between the turn and the river (barring a v v v v unlikely bluff 3bet on the turn from villain)

for villain: turn 3bet range = river shove range
for hero: turn 3bet call range = river call range

[bilbo-san]

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I think you've been spot on the whole thread loos. Sickest spot ever though. I'd like to meet the man who folds this on the turn while actually playing.

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This is one of the sickest spots I've ever seen.

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I see set-over-set like 5 times a week, and I don't even play much...wtf. How is this so sick? Because we're deep?

How does playing deep make you immune from coolers?

Furthermore, if villains were as tight-passive as 80% of posters playing here seem to suggest, why the [censored] aren't you destroying the games? Shouldn't you be raising this turn with practically any two, ALL the time, if you think villain needs AK to even CALL?

If Villain's not pushing this river with AK for value, then you are not exploiting your position vs. him enough this deep. Which probably means you don't have enough buyins to play this deep.

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biblo, 3rd set 550 (!) bbs deep vs. a likely range of AA/KK/44/AK is not a sick spot? This isn't a normal set over set, and honestly this entire thread is why deep games are profitable b/c people (even good players) just think about the hand in the same way as if they were 100bbs deep.


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The fact that you are 500BBs deep is pretty irrelevant.

If you don't want to stack off with middle set vs. a pre-flop raiser then don't call preflop. No, really. You're going to flop an A,Q, or K on a pretty significant percentage of flops that have an 8 on them, and in any case villain has about 20% equity on all those flops you have a set on:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

9,631,710 games 1.406 secs 6,850,433 games/sec

Board: 8h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 18.132% 17.77% 00.36% 1711980 34488.00 { QQ+ }
Hand 1: 81.868% 81.51% 00.36% 7850754 34488.00 { 88 }

I'm sorry, but this just doesn't qualify as "sick". It's sad that this happens to you with 550 BBs, but it happens quite a lot if you're set-mining, actually, whether for 100BBs or 600.

"Sick" is when you flop JJJ on a JQ2 and the turn is a Q and the river is an A with action like this, or some [censored] where villain needed runner-runner.

I don't understand why everyone thinks villain is going to donate us 550 BBs on an 824X board with AA, but won't donate 550 BBs if he has top two.

You're right that villain is very strong here, and that's my point. If he decides to play top 2 strong, he's going to play top 2 strong. He won't change his mind in the middle of the hand.

And please for the love of [censored] Zeus, everybody seriously needs to stop pretending that any 25/12 folds bottom [censored] set here, or just calls your turn raise, or c/cs the river with it. No matter what he told you in the chat later.

[bilbo-san]

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also, still waiting to see a reply to this challenge:

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for all those saying this is an easy river call i challenge you to find a single hand from .5/1NL - 2/4NL and post teh HH where either:
1) a TAG gets all in with 2 pairs for over 500+ bb's or
2) a TAG gets in 500+ bb's after the turn with bottom set or less

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Again, 90% or SSNLers play 100BB buy-in games.

500BB effective stacks on 100BB tables are so rare that the sample size for this is nowhere close to big enough for this "challenge" to mean anything.

Add to that the fact that players where the max buyin is 200BBs stack off lighter than where the max buyin is 100BBs and both villains built up a 500BB stack.

Deep stacks in a 100BB game != deep stacks in a deep-stacked game.

[spivey]

This guy's a tagfish, and I really can't believe so many people think he wouldn't play AK like this. It is a sick spot, but it's a call.

[bilbo-san]

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I see set-over-set like 5 times a week, and I don't even play much...wtf. How is this so sick? Because we're deep?


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adfksdgkfdg...this thread is making my head asplode. Of course it's because we're deep. Saying his range doesn't change "just because we're deep" is absolutely ridiculous.


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I didn't say [censored] about his range. His range is narrow. Calling is still correct. Of course he never has AQ or some random [censored] here.

I just mean that this comes up with 100 or 200 BB stacks all the time. Saying "it's sick" when the statistical probabilities really aren't all that "sick" just because it's 2.25 stacks on a 200BB table just tells me that some of you play way under-rolled.

[Benzooor]

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If I was in villains spot with 44 i'm definitely c/c rather than open shoving.

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wow that's terrible

all better hands shove, and all worse hands check behind

if you think there is value in 3betting the turn with 44, shoving >>>>>>>>>>> checking, and i think c/f > c/c, because he's never shoving worse hands

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And shoving the river with 44 only folds out hands you already beat.

Although you may be right about c/f being > c/c with 44 on the river.

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check my edit. if you, in villains shoes, think 44 is good enough to value3bet because we have like AK or A8 and call with that, then you have to shove the river because AK or A8 WILL NOT FOLD but will check behind

assuming two semi-decent players, ranges don't change between the turn and the river (barring a v v v v unlikely bluff 3bet on the turn from villain)

for villain: turn 3bet range = river shove range
for hero: turn 3bet call range = river call range

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Good edit [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I 100% agree that the important decision is on the turn.

[bilbo-san]

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It's absolutely true that villain NEVER has AK.


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Opinions != facts. We might be wrong, you might be wrong, but just because you feel this way and put it in ALL CAPS doesn't make it fact.

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However, even after the turn call, I don't know if villain open shoves 44 in this spot.

If I was in villains spot with 44 i'm definitely c/c rather than open shoving.


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Then you are a fish. If you have 44 here, and check the river after 3-betting the turn, what's villain going to bluff with? Name a 2-pair hand that villain does not decide to check behind with while shouting "OH THANK [censored] GOD HE CHECKED THE RIVER!". Keep in mind that villian really never has AK given the pre-flop action.

If you check the river with 44 and villain bets after that action, you're smoke.