MyTurn's NFL picks

[CarlSpackler]

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I kinda hate the 49ers-Steelers analysis. I don't really expect it to be that close in the 4th Qtr but if it is I don't see why a seasoned team like Pit is going to choke on themselves. IMO any team that relies on their running game like SF does is a bad matchup against the Steelers.



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I completely agree with these comments. Pitt is a veteran team that just won the super bowl 2 years ago with most of the same cast they have this season. Your line of logic actually favors the Steelers, imo, as SF is a very young team. I'm all over Pitt, and the thing I'm most concerned with is a backdoor cover in the 4th.

Also, it's not like AZ and STL are world beaters either.

[MyTurn2Raise]

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I've put together a new model and analysis that I think might win some dollers.


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Myturn I am interested in hearing what factors are lying on your analysis. Is it data driven, intuition driven, or a little of both?

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It's the Inimical NFL Algorithm Spotting Systematic Addle-pates

It starts with a baseline of all lines being correct estimations of probable outcomes. It then looks at a series of what most would cause noise, but are actually the intangibles that pick out winners.

[iggymcfly]

Was looking through the team-by-team turnover margins for the season and found another bet:

Dallas at Chicago -3 (Risk 1.05u to win 1u)
Dallas has "looked good" this season and Chicago has "looked bad" which is why the Bears are considered even to the Cowboys on a neutral field right now. However, that's largely because Dallas is +4 in TO margin (best in NFC) while Chicago is -3 (2nd worst). So yeah, I'm on the Bears tonight.

(Side note: I think the square part of me loves having action on the SNF game. I've bet it every week thus far.)

[MyTurn2Raise]

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Jacksonville +3.5 -110 5dimes WIN
San Francisco +9.5 +106 matchbook LOSS
Dolphins +3 +105 Bodog PUSH

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1-1-1 for +/-0.00 units on 3.1u bet

very exciting--hooray for backdooring Dolphins

[iggymcfly]

OK, I'm going to use this thread one more time since my other picks are all here. I've got:

Tennessee/New Orleans under 46.5 (Risk 2.1u to win 2.08u)
Pretty happy with the price I got here. Decided to bet half an hour out in case there was a late sharp bounce-back on the price.

[CrushinFelt]

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I doubt I can beat the best lines...GMAFB trying to beat WA

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i dunno why but "Grab me a [censored] beer" instantly came to mind. I've never heard that but for some reason I actually read it like that without a thought. What the hell does it actually mean?

[Assani Fisher]

LOL [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I like your style.

[Performify]

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I doubt I can beat the best lines...GMAFB trying to beat WA

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i dunno why but "Grab me a [censored] beer" instantly came to mind. I've never heard that but for some reason I actually read it like that without a thought. What the hell does it actually mean?

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http://www.google.com/search?q=GMAFB

[MyTurn2Raise]

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LOL [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I like your style.

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all in good fun [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[iggymcfly]

Well, now that the Assani/MyTurn fun's out of the way, I'm happy to report that I went 4-3, +3.07 units this week, losing all 3 one unit plays and winning all the bigger ones. That pushes my NFL record to 8-5, +5.91 units on the year.