$60 L7 bubble - everyone is shoving 20 bb's, what happened to 3x

Little John · #1 11-09-2007, 07:02 PM

i cant remember the last time any regular raised the button in this spot to 2.5 or 3 X. everyone seems to be shoving. sb was sinsje, an old regular who has not played the 60's in a bit and who is pretty aggro. i dont remember much about the bb. this is L7 (bb=200, 25 chip ante)

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

SB (t3000)
BB (t3815)
UTG (t1990)
Hero (t4695)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises to t4695, [i]

Little John · #2 11-09-2007, 07:04 PM

and a bonus hand, sorry cant find the history.

L7 bubble, bb = 200, 25 chips ante

ug 5100 = poker_in_pb
button = 1200
sb = 1900
Hero in bb with 5300

poker_in_pb open shoves.

suzzer99 · #3 11-09-2007, 07:09 PM

This is probably ok given stack sizes. But they know you aren't doing this with KK.

It's my impression that most players (in the BB or SB here) reshove ranges (over a normal raise) and call shove ranges are very similar.

IE they're probably calling something like TT+/AK. Maybe they reshove 88/AJ+ over a normal raise. I'm not sure it's worth it to shove given that. Unless you're against someone like Dario who will insta-reshove T8s. But then I'd still normal raise with this hand and insta-call his ass.

So I usually figure the normal raise is a cheaper way to get the same chips. And if they just call, we have position and a bigger stack to play poker with.

JacJacAtk · #4 11-09-2007, 07:11 PM

Well, the second one is easier. He has a hand strong enough to showdown with a short stack, but doesn't want to (can't) call a reshove from you if he makes a normal raise.

Qubit · #5 11-09-2007, 07:31 PM

Hand 1:
If the blinds are calling with TT+/AQ+ it's still ~+0.5% EV to push...if you want to see SnGPT calculation click here.

Although its still +EV to do this move most of the time, I have to agree with suzzer in that a standard raise is best because the blinds are the only ones who can hurt you.

Hand 2:
Raiser probably isn't going to do this with KK or AA so if we put him on somethin like top 20% (33+, A2s+, A4o+, KTs+, KQo) which is pretty loose then you still can't make the call except with KK+.

Again if you want to see the ICM calculation click here .

JacJacAtk · #6 11-09-2007, 08:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This is probably ok given stack sizes. But they know you aren't doing this with KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

This seems like more of a reason to do it with KK than stop doing it with other hands.

suzzer99 · #7 11-09-2007, 08:26 PM

You are giving up way too much value IMO. In this first hand, you have position and a stack. Why be afraid to play a little poker? If they flat call, I guarantee you profit since they pretty much have to give up a whiffed flop. Just because shoving is +ev doesn't mean it's the most +ev play.

JacJacAtk · #8 11-09-2007, 08:51 PM

I don't necessarily disagree, I just try to avoid situations where I shove part of my range and not all of it. For all the times I shove hoping for folds, I'm constantly and pleasantly surprised by the times I shove a big hand and get called by something that can only be calling on the theory that I'm shoving complete trash.

This isn't the best example with effective stacks around 20 BB, but I often see the assumption in the 12-15 BB range in this situation that shovers don't have QQ+. If that's generally true, I think the people varying their shoving ranges based on hand strength are the ones giving up EV.

Little John · #9 11-10-2007, 10:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]
This is probably ok given stack sizes. But they know you aren't doing this with KK.

It's my impression that most players (in the BB or SB here) reshove ranges (over a normal raise) and call shove ranges are very similar.

IE they're probably calling something like TT+/AK. Maybe they reshove 88/AJ+ over a normal raise. I'm not sure it's worth it to shove given that. Unless you're against someone like Dario who will insta-reshove T8s. But then I'd still normal raise with this hand and insta-call his ass.

So I usually figure the normal raise is a cheaper way to get the same chips. And if they just call, we have position and a bigger stack to play poker with.

[/ QUOTE ]

TT AK = 36 combinations

88 99 AJ AQ = 40 combinations

so by pushing, i fold out more than half of their reshove range. aslo, sb is probably in push/fold mode so i dont think he takes a flop very often.

also, if i can steal these chips and get a little separation i can have a nice chip lead going into L8 bubble which is huge. having the bb reshove on me with a hand i could have folded by pushing really stinks.

idk, i think it is close.

have you noticed everyone make huge shoves L7? it may be the spacegravy effect.

suzzer99 · #10 11-10-2007, 12:54 PM

If you had a rock-solid read villians would never call, then I guess it's close or leaning to shove. But they generally will call a decent % of the time. And you have a good hand in position for that. I dunno, I actually enjoy playing poker when I have a stack and position.