NL50: 68 on the BB, hits 2 pair on drawy board

[ranka]

Hello! This is the first hand at the table. At this point, UTG is totally unknown. So, while playing this again handle him as unknown guy. But next hand later, PAHUD starts displaying the hands and this guy was 13/6/2.1 - 200 hands.
So I ask - What is your flop decision if he is unknown and what is flop decision if he is running 13/6/2.1


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($61)
UTG+1 ($30.25)
MP1 ($20.30)
MP2 ($49.50)
MP3 ($56.45)
CO ($45.50)
Button ($51)
SB ($56.35)
Hero ($50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">7 folds</font>, Hero checks.

Flop: ($1.25) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $4</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $14</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $60.5</font>, Hero ?

And some things more: After my 3bet, he used entire time bank before pushing and he said:
UTG said, "no way my set is busted here"
UTG pushes at last second.

[RapidEvolution]

I call here for a number of reasons.

Range: Normally we'd be worried about 3 sets here, but since we hold a 6 AND an 8, he has to have both cases for those sets, 55, of course is more likely. However, 77 is a likely hand as well, given the action (he's pushing to gain FE and he knows he has no implied odds if he hits any of his outs since they're all scary...better to get the money in now) AND it's mathematically more likely than 88/66/55 COMBINED.

88= 2c2=1
66= 2c2=1
55= 3c2=3

5 total combinations of sets

77=4c2=6 combinations of 77

If we add hands like AdQd/AdJd/KdQd and big pairs like AA/KK that botched their limp/reraise, and overpairs (99/TT) this becomes +EV by a lot, I think.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

37,620 games 0.046 secs 817,826 games/sec

Board: 6d 8d 5s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.927% 58.84% 01.09% 22135 409.50 { 8h6s }
Hand 1: 40.073% 38.98% 01.09% 14666 409.50 { KK+, TT-55, AdQd, AdJd, KdQd }


If we take the speech into account, I think it votes more for a call. If villain is thinking here at all, you're most likely hand here (given that you checked your option and are now aggro) is probably 2pair and the speech is trying to get you to fold. (Just my opinion)

[coordi]

He has 88,66,55 here like 90% of the time imo.
Against unknow I would fold because they probly have the nuts.

[ranka]

[ QUOTE ]
He has 88,66,55 here like 90% of the time imo.
Against unknow I would fold because they probly have the nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]

But against 13/6/2.1?

[oober]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He has 88,66,55 here like 90% of the time imo.
Against unknow I would fold because they probly have the nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]

But against 13/6/2.1?

[/ QUOTE ]

Guys with those stats dont get it in bad too often. Don't know what to think of the chat, could go either way. But I'd fold anyways, unless you want to gambooooll...