$225: KK, TP pairs board

[darinvg]

Unknown villain.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (8 handed) TightPoker converter

Button (t1455)
SB (t1480)
BB (t1675)
UTG (t2970)
UTG+1 (t1490)
MP1 (t1420)
Hero (t1660)
CO (t1350)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls t30, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t120</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, UTG calls t90.

Flop: (t285) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t210</font>, UTG calls t210.

Turn: (t705) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets t690</font>, Hero?

[Niggel]

I guess I'd fold...
Looks like a donkish move, but often he will have at least OESD + FD. Stinks so horrible like a 9 [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[Luisgallo]

Rationally I would say fold, this smells like set to me, but 88 plays like this.

I am pretty sure it is one of those spots that I end up pushing and getting called by a set just to insult myself saying: "You knew it why did you do it?".

[TruFloridaGator]

This is really though. I don't believe such a donkish psb is a 9 here. Still looks like a combo draw/great semi-bluff or maybe even TT.

[Chipchucker5]

Do you know how villain doubled up? I don't see how he'd have a 9 in his hand in the first place...A9, T9? I'm thinking more like medium pairs like 88 and TT. I'm getting it in against an unknown.

[sence25]

Why would villain bet the turn so big with a 9?
Seems strange.
I think this is a draw way too often to fold..

[Little John]

i'm pushing here. looks a ton like a combo draw.

[Luisgallo]

Why is everybody not mentioning a possible set?
As i said in my post before I think it's the most likely holding for villain.
On a general note I noticed that this forum tend to underestimate sets while a limp/call UTG is almost always a mid pair rather then suited connectors.

I really doubt villain is commiting that early with 88 here and TT wants a cheap showdown.

[Chipchucker5]

[ QUOTE ]
Why is everybody not mentioning a possible set?
As i said in my post before I think it's the most likely holding for villain.
On a general note I noticed that this forum tend to underestimate sets while a limp/call UTG is almost always a mid pair rather then suited connectors.

I really doubt villain is commiting that early with 88 here and TT wants a cheap showdown.

[/ QUOTE ]

It just doesn't make sense for villain to play a set (full house now) like this. The 9 is an obvious scare card, so why would he make this huge bet? It just doesn't seem to be the way a person would try to extract value if they held a FH here.

[Q..]

i think there is &lt;5% chance that someone would be playing FH this way on turn at 225.

I am pushing here since there are a lot of hands we can beat which could bet this way, and most hands that have us beat would bet different.