Pushing the Marginal (PP vs Overcards)

[Zeldark]

I have seen evidence that the small blind is horrible. Button is also too loose for his own good. Due to a few suckouts on the part of my opponents, I probably seem a little LAGgy.

My main interest is checking behind on the river. Do you fire again?
Of course, general advice on all streets is welcome, as always.

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (7 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls, SB calls.

Turn: (5 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button folds, SB calls.

River: (7 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 7 BB

[BigBadBabar]

looks fine, i'd bet the river

[TJO]

I think you can bet the river since SB is horrible. I think you're ahead much more than 50% of the time. Horrible player can have A-high, K-high, small PP, pair of fives, some strange draw (43, 64).

[BigBadBabar]

yes, and also even if he has nothing and folds, it's good metagame for us to make this bet. make them pay to see your hand. don't give the rest of the table the free information that you check behind a medium pp when 2 overs come.

[TJO]

Yes that's true. Villain has to call the bet with a worse hand more than 50% of the time to make betting profitable. It's not enough that we're ahead 50% of the time as I wrote. If he's the type that will call down w/ A-high or K-high then it's definitely a bet.

[Zeldark]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes that's true. Villain has to call the bet with a worse hand more than 50% of the time to make betting profitable. It's not enough that we're ahead 50% of the time as I wrote. If he's the type that will call down w/ A-high or K-high then it's definitely a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
Where the hey did you get that?

[Bilgefisher]

[ QUOTE ]
yes, and also even if he has nothing and folds, it's good metagame for us to make this bet. make them pay to see your hand. don't give the rest of the table the free information that you check behind a medium pp when 2 overs come.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. To much value here not to bet vs a bad opponent. Make note of what hand he calls down with. Use that information for future plays. Thats the true key here. Good reads for future rewards.

Also, how to you play it if the SB c/r's the river?

[Aaron W.]

How horrible is SB?

I'm checking behind on the river unless SB is really bad. I'd bet if the board were 5228Q.

[TJO]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yes that's true. Villain has to call the bet with a worse hand more than 50% of the time to make betting profitable. It's not enough that we're ahead 50% of the time as I wrote. If he's the type that will call down w/ A-high or K-high then it's definitely a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
Where the hey did you get that?

[/ QUOTE ]If villain only calls with hands that beat us then we shouldn't bet. Something like that. A weak LPP might not bet a pair of T or Q. I don't know which type of horrible SB is but I think it's correct to bet the river since SB will call you down with lots of weak holdings.

[Zeldark]

Where did you get the 50% from?