CardPlayer claim about Annette 15

[-moe-]

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I can believe this claim

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The hand history is up on PokerXFactor. It's very believable: I didn't finish it, but I looked through the first 1/2 or 2/3rds of it or so. It is quite obvious that she didn't peek at her cards. For instance, she open-folded AA once (UTG, IIRC), and folded KK twice, once when it was limped to her in LP, once in the SB when it was folded to the button, who made a standard raise.

She was very aggressive on steal / re-steal situations, of course. And she got lucky a couple of times when she won a 35/65 or 40/60 AIPF situation, having pot-committed herself with a raise that was re-raised all-in, having a junk hand.

[Poker monkey]

I don't know if anyone's done this before, but I've evaluated how lucky Annette is in this video.

She's all-in versus a larger stack with the worst of it 4 times (and wins them all obviously):

97o vs 66 = 46.22%
J4s vs AKo = 32.31%
J7o vs AKs = 32.04%
J5o vs A8o = 36.55%

The chances of he winning all of these is 1.7%.

Even if she tried it 50 times with these odds, she still only has a 59% chance of winning all of these all-ins at least once in those 50 attempts.

There's a lot of other luck involved, e.g. the chances that the other players didn't turn up with a hand that could call her river shoves at the final table, but that's too hard to evaluate.

After pulling off a more than 50:1 shot with the all-ins, the chances of everything else going her must way be fairly slim, so I'd guess she must have attempted this at least a couple of hundred times to get this result. Obviously she plays with a lot of skill, but even playing with an infinite amount of skill, the chances of pulling this off must still be much less than 1%.

[tarheeljks]

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After pulling off a more than 50:1 shot with the all-ins, the chances of everything else going her must way be fairly slim,

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try again

[betgo]

Good aggressive players get allin preflop at a disadvantage.

[MrFeelNothin]

I was playing on Bodog tonight and had a sudden software glitch- i couldn't see my cards or the flop on a table where I was playing HU.

I decided to keep playing for awhile as opponent was weak and mostly folding anyways.

First postflop hand- I raise on button to 33, he reraises to 100, I call.

He bets 145 on flop, i make it 425, he folds.

Turns out I had A10 and had flopped top pair on 1095 board.

Hand 2: I raise to 33, he calls. We check all the way to the river, where he bets pot and I fold.

Board was 77Q89

Turns out I had 79 for the boat. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[Poker monkey]

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After pulling off a more than 50:1 shot with the all-ins, the chances of everything else going her must way be fairly slim,

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try again

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Explain

[twang]

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She's all-in versus a larger stack with the worst of it 4 times (and wins them all obviously):

97o vs 66 = 46.22%
J4s vs AKo = 32.31%
J7o vs AKs = 32.04%
J5o vs A8o = 36.55%

The chances of he winning all of these is 1.7%.

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You do realize that coming out on top as favorite in all the hands above is only 15-something %, right?. 15 is still better than 2 (obv), but it's not like it's a lock.

[Poker monkey]

Ya but lose just one (98.3% chance) and she's out, that's the point.

[Wowliksom!]

How is it even possible to be this consistently lucky?

Really...?

Winning a 180-sng without seeing the hole cards... unreal...

[Micro Donk]

she posted the HH onto pokerxfactor.com

tell me if this link doesnt work

i watched it, right on hand 4 she open folds KK, same with hand 100. AQ is folded a time or two...77 open folded with 13 blinds. hand 234 she folds AK on the button.

it can seem kinda unreal cause she played most of her premium hands...