10/20 LO8: promo raises abound

[donger]

Both players are tight/TAGish pre- and post-flop
Party Poker
Limit Omaha Ring game
Limit: $10/$20
10 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, 3 folds, CO calls, Button calls, Hero calls, BB checks.

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5SB, 5 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG+2 checks, <font color="#cc3333">CO bets</font>, Button calls, <font color="#cc3333">Hero raises</font>, 2 folds, <font color="#cc3333">CO 3-bets</font>, Button calls, Hero calls.

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (7BB, 3 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc3333">CO bets</font>, Button calls, Hero calls.

River: 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (10BB, 3 players)
<font color="#cc3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#cc3333">CO raises</font>, Button folds, Hero calls.

Results:
Final pot: 14BB

[Buzz]

Donger - Obviously you bet the river and call the raise. Fine.

It's your check-raise on the flop that is interesting. I like it!

As simulated, Hero is a favorite against random hands, with about 34% equity. (Of course you're not facing random hands, but I like the check-raise anyway).

I'm not sure why it would be called a promo raise, but whatever.

I use the check-raise primarily to keep semi-bluffing behind me under control. Thus I'd probably simply bet this flop directly, rather than going for the check-raise, unless one of those guys behind me was always betting (and usually bluffing or semi-bluffing) after I checked.

I wouldn't think of betting this flop as a "promotional" bet, but whatever.

Buzz

[donger]

i was trying to promote my A5 on the flop and fold out ace-4's and ace-5's with no high prospects. The river bet, i expect the likely set to raise and hopefully squeeze out an A5 if I'm being quartered. The river bet is probably the thinnest/most questionable part of this hand.

[benwood]

Pre-flop:First off,we all know that this hand is a piece of dog duke,right?An A5 hand is right on the edge,barely worth evaluating.Also,as A5 hands go,this one is below average.It's rainbow,the 6 is a good card to have with it,&amp; the 10 is a weak card.With that said,I would call with it from the sb too,since being 1/2 in already produces some pretty good current pot odds.

Flop:Not bad.You have top 2 pair &amp; a low draw.The 2 is a good card for you.Hopefully it counterfitts others,&amp; it promotes your low draw to 4th best.
I like the check,hoping to check-raise a late position player&amp; promote/protect this dog.The check-raise did get rid of 2 players(good),But you got re-raised &amp; button took the heat(bad).

Turn:Yep.

River:The 3 is a good card,hopefully counterfitting somebody &amp; promoting your low to 2nd nut.The lead bet is good,giving Co a chance to raise the button out.

Well played,IMHO. Ben.

Note:Buzz,the 3rd street raise is called a pro-mo raise(Mike Capeletti)brcause an A5,43,A4,or even an A3 may get out rather than face a double bet + the prospect of more action behind him.If one of these hands folds,the value of your low draw is promoted.This is actually a "double pro-mo raise"(Mike Capeletti,again),because it promotes the winning ability of your high side holding also.

Highest regards as always. Ben

[blumpkin]

I don't like the river bet. A bet will likely go in anyway and if two bets go in your chances of scooping are slim and you are now praying for half. Nothing is gained by folding the button out on the river. Ideally the action would go check, bet, call, call.

I think I like the rest.

[donger]

I already recognize my scoop chances as being slim to nonexistent. Playing (praying) for half beats playing for 1/4.

[blumpkin]

[ QUOTE ]
I already recognize my scoop chances as being slim to nonexistent. Playing (praying) for half beats playing for 1/4.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right, but that still doesn't justify a river bet.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Blumpkin: I don't like the river bet. A bet will likely go in anyway and if two bets go in your chances of scooping are slim and you are now praying for half. Nothing is gained by folding the button out on the river. Ideally the action would go check, bet, call, call.

Donger: I already recognize my scoop chances as being slim to nonexistent. Playing (praying) for half beats playing for 1/4.

Blumpkin: Right, but that still doesn't justify a river bet.

[/ QUOTE ]Blumpkin - The three of diamonds probably screwed up a lot of draws. In particular, the nut low draw after the flop and turn (ace-trey) was counterfeited by the river. Hero should not want either of these two opponents limping in with the same 2nd nut low as Hero's. Hero cannot afford to take the chance that nobody will bet and an opponent who would have folded to a bet will limp and lay down the same 2nd nut low. Hero simply cannot afford to take that chance!

In addition, anyone has to be concerned about the possibility of a six high straight for high. So by betting, Hero makes it tougher for somebody to continue without the six high straight. Thus Hero's bet possibly induces an opponent who would otherwise have eked out the high half of the pot to make a mistake and fold a hand that would have won for high.

Hero, in my humble opinion, has a manditory bet on the river - against anybody. If Hero gets cracked by someone who happens to have perfect cards to beat Hero both ways, so be it - that's the price of playing poker. It would be a big mistake for Hero to allow an opponent (who very well might fold to a bet) to continue.

Betting this river is a fundamental limit-Omaha-8 poker play.

Buzz

[blumpkin]

Interesting post Buzz. While I agree with what you said, I think you are overestimating the likelihood that someone folds a winning hand for one bet here. Very good analysis though, and you are probably correct that a bet in spots like these are critical for winning play.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you are overestimating the likelihood that someone folds a winning hand for one bet here.

[/ QUOTE ]Blumpkin - Possibly. Obviously it's very opponent dependent.

The nature of the game is people make mistakes - various different kinds of mistakes. One common mistake is folding to a bet on the river without a nut hand. By betting you give Villain an opportunity to make that particular mistake.

Sometimes it isn’t clear to Villain if he will be making a mistake by folding a non-nut hand on the river or if he will be making a mistake by calling with a non-nut hand on the river.

Imagine yourself in the shoes of Villain who had the nut low draw but got counterfeited for low on the river - especially if Villain is sitting in second position. If you were Villain, would you want to face a bet with the possibility of a raise behind you? I’ll agree there could be special circumstances, but in general, wouldn’t you rather have the player in opening position check to you? A general backgammon principle is, “Do what your opponent doesn’t want you to do.” And that approach works well in poker too.

I’ll agree you don’t want to be raised by the player in last position after the player in second position calls (because that puts you in the middle). But if the player in second position raises, the raise may actually work to your benefit. Not, of course, if the player in second position has the double nuts. And that’s a possibility.

But by my counting, there are 7786 ways Villain could have the nut low, and another 7786 ways Villain could have the nut high, while there are only 1350 ways Villain could have them both. Thus it’s more than ten times as likely Villain has either the nut high or the nut low than both. I think it’s probably generally true that when Villain needs only two cards for the nut low or nut high but three cards for them both, Villain is roughly ten times more likely to have the nuts one way or the other than the double nuts.

There are another 5676 ways Villain could have the second nut low, same as Hero. And there are many other possibilities as well where Villain has none of the above. The point here is the double nuts is possible - but even if Hero gets raised, less likely than the nuts one way or the other. The double nuts should not be overly feared.

However, sure, there is some danger of an opponent with the double nuts, and also some danger one of Hero’s opponents has the nuts for high and the other has the nuts for low.

In the face of this danger, Hero simply has to summon up the courage to bet. The bet will work out favorably more often than it won’t. I’m certain of that. (But sometimes, I’ll admit, the bet will backfire).

Buzz