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#131
11-22-2007, 11:17 AM
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Re: First good idea
Well, in terms of managing risk I'm a bit wild. I think at one point I had a 35% position in DSUP because we thought it was a very good idea. I figured a better idea meant I could take a deeper position. Turned out that might not be a very good strategy.
In terms of exits, a FA exits when the fundamentals change. Until they blew Q3 and posted crappy EBITDA numbers making it clear they were not going to make the 80M EBITDA guidance in '07 I still felt pretty good about a 20-25 price target based on '08 numbers. SO I didn't sell anything until after where I sold half my shares at $6 because I couldn't handle the portfolio concentration given we felt a lot worse about the quality of the idea. Krishan 
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#132
11-22-2007, 04:27 PM
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Re: First good idea
[ QUOTE ]
Well, in terms of managing risk I'm a bit wild. I think at one point I had a 35% position in DSUP because we thought it was a very good idea. I figured a better idea meant I could take a deeper position. Turned out that might not be a very good strategy. In terms of exits, a FA exits when the fundamentals change. Until they blew Q3 and posted crappy EBITDA numbers making it clear they were not going to make the 80M EBITDA guidance in '07 I still felt pretty good about a 20-25 price target based on '08 numbers. SO I didn't sell anything until after where I sold half my shares at $6 because I couldn't handle the portfolio concentration given we felt a lot worse about the quality of the idea. Krishan [/ QUOTE ] So now what weight do you have it at, just curious and if you dont wanna say hey I understand.
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#133
11-22-2007, 05:44 PM
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Re: First good idea
[ QUOTE ]
"My somewhat charitable characterization of DSUP is their business earns a lumpy 10% ROIC (excluding badwill). Perhaps not a terrible business if you lever the assets 50% at 6% interest. Unfortunately they're levered 120% at 12%. " [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Debt refinance comes in at a blended rate of ~7.6. [/ QUOTE ] Progress! I almost own a not terrible business.
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#134
11-22-2007, 11:46 PM
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Re: First good idea
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I'm going to kill myself if this goes to 4. Krishan [/ QUOTE ] Please don't. eastbay [/ QUOTE ] Meh, god damn leverage. [/ QUOTE ] Leverage as in leveraged company or leverage as in you hold a margin position? eastbay [/ QUOTE ] Leveraged company. No margin for me except extreme short term trades on occasion (1 week). Krishan
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#135
11-22-2007, 11:47 PM
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Re: First good idea
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Well, in terms of managing risk I'm a bit wild. I think at one point I had a 35% position in DSUP because we thought it was a very good idea. I figured a better idea meant I could take a deeper position. Turned out that might not be a very good strategy. In terms of exits, a FA exits when the fundamentals change. Until they blew Q3 and posted crappy EBITDA numbers making it clear they were not going to make the 80M EBITDA guidance in '07 I still felt pretty good about a 20-25 price target based on '08 numbers. SO I didn't sell anything until after where I sold half my shares at $6 because I couldn't handle the portfolio concentration given we felt a lot worse about the quality of the idea. Krishan [/ QUOTE ] So now what weight do you have it at, just curious and if you dont wanna say hey I understand. [/ QUOTE ] 16.5K in a portfolio of 196? 8% position. Krishan
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#136
11-23-2007, 02:23 PM
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Re: First good idea
[ QUOTE ]
Perhaps you found an undervalued stock and loaded up, but if the market doesn't agree with your valuation (and the market is always right), then there must come a point where you acknowledge that while your analsis was correct, your timing wasn't, and you have to sell to preserve your capital so that you can profit during the times you are right and realise the +EV of your work in the future. [/ QUOTE ] Managing risk ftw. Very good advice kimchi.
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#137
11-23-2007, 02:26 PM
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Re: First good idea
[ QUOTE ]
First you are the man. Second, I'm going to kill myself if this goes to 4. Krishan [/ QUOTE ] Farewell.
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#140
11-23-2007, 02:51 PM
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Re: First good idea
If this thing hits 3 I'll buy a few hundred shares just for [censored] and giggles. That way when Kirhsn has broken even I'll be up 400% bwa ha ha ha
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