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Old 12-01-2007, 09:10 AM
AshleyC AshleyC is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: London
Posts: 513
Default Ahead of his range but unprofitable to push?

£1-£2 Live Pot Limit game in London. Effective stacks £210.


I have 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in the BB.

I have show down one hand (AA 4 way all-in pf against 3 very short-stacks). I've also folded TT to a limp re-raise all-in PF (didnt show but looked annoyed at decision due to relatively short-stack of re-raiser).

UTG limps ( I have seen him limp QQ pre-flop to 'slowplay' - looking to re-raise. Other times he has raised donk-ish amounts ie £5 pre-flop, giving me the impression that he's not a solid player.

6 players to the flop.........

Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I lead for £12.

UTG raises to £60, everyone else folds.

If I call pot would be £132 on the turn and I'd have ~ £150 behind, so I think that calling will led to alot of tough decision on the turn, given the number of possible scare cards.

However, if I re-raise I think that he simply folds the vast majority of his range that I am ahead of (KQ, AQ, KK), but plays for stacks when he has me crushed (Q9, 99, 44, QQ). I'd assume he'd call with AA, given that it's live and that he's a donk. Given his play so far I can almost certainly rule out playing a big combo draw aggressively multi-way ie JsTs.

This means that when I am ahead I win ~ £70, but lose ~ £200 when I am behind. Given the weighting of his range, I think that maybe the risk-reward balance, taking into account his range makes this a very tough decision.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

46,530 games 0.005 secs 9,306,000 games/sec

Board: 9s Qs 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.222% 58.22% 00.00% 27089 1.50 { 9c4s }
Hand 1: 41.778% 41.78% 00.00% 19438 1.50 { QQ+, 99, 44, AQs, KQs, Q9s, AQo, KQo, Q9o }

His estimated calling range if I 4 bet:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

16,830 games 0.005 secs 3,366,000 games/sec

Board: 9s Qs 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.243% 32.23% 00.01% 5425 1.50 { 9c4s }
Hand 1: 67.757% 67.75% 00.01% 11402 1.50 { AA, QQ, 99, 44, Q9s, Q9o }

I'd appreciate others thoughts on how to best play the hand.
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