50NL - 200BB tricky JJ hand

gir · #1 01-24-2007, 07:52 PM

Villain is 12/7/3 over 120 hands.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($57.45)
BB ($94.85)
UTG ($75.94)
MP ($30)
Hero ($100.45)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25. MP posts a blind of $0.50.
1 fold, MP (poster) checks, Hero raises to $2.5, 1 fold, BB calls $2, MP folds.

Flop: ($5.75) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3.75, BB raises to $12, Hero calls $8.25.

Turn: ($29.75) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets $22, Hero calls $22.

River: ($73.75) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB calls $47.35 (All-In), Hero...

Angrymoog · #2 01-24-2007, 08:07 PM

I think it's a fold. Dont think you can play it another way.

LaMbaL · #3 01-24-2007, 08:13 PM

Agreed. I think you played the hand alright, you just have to let it go on the river.

gir · #4 01-24-2007, 08:14 PM

What about the rest of the hand? Should I have folded earlier? Played it differently somewhere? Raised more...or less?

Angrymoog · #5 01-24-2007, 08:18 PM

I dont think it wouldve made a difference. You could have bet more on the flop, but it mightve gotten you into more trouble and actually cost you your stack on the river.

I think you have to play it as you did, cant really fold the turn.

Smilin' · #6 01-24-2007, 08:19 PM

I'd say fold. This guy is tight (you even have a decent sample size on him), so I don't think you're even way ahead of his range when the flop hits. (If he calls with any pair and nothing else, then 6 out of 12 hands are ahead on the flop, discounting another JJ. He probably calls a bit wider than that, and he might reraise preflop with QQ+, but still.) So I think the real question is whether you should fold earlier. I think without a specific read suggesting otherwise, the turn is a fold, maybe even the flop. Because you're 200BB deep, you can't see showdown cheap when you're behind, and you'll have trouble getting it all in when you're ahead.

Antinome · #7 01-24-2007, 08:39 PM

A player with this kind of stats, I seriously consider dumping to the flop reraise. He called out of the blinds. He c/r the flop. 9s7s,77,99,TT,AsQs are the only hands I believe I can beat here. If I do call (and that's not bad), I can't beat 97,TT anymore on the turn, and 77 becomes unlikely.. so I dump there. If I call that (bad), I can't beat AQ anymore on the river, so I super-instafold there.

He has 66. Dump it as soon as possible.

Leviathan101 · #8 01-24-2007, 08:45 PM

I dump the hand on turn, fold river for sure, and maybeeee fold to c/r.

Minnie Man · #9 01-24-2007, 08:47 PM

With a sample size of 120 hands, it is apparent so far that this guy is way tight. He calls your PF raise OOP. If this guy plays this tight and it is not just a bad run of cards for him, what do you put him on to call your bet PF? I rule out AA, KK, and QQ half the time as he will RR. Now a check raise on this board? I really doubt he has a draw. Usually a TAG like this made his hand. I would venture to guess he hit trips here. Doubtful this TAG calls OOP with a SC and makes a check raise on a draw. I could be wrong here! I think you are WB here. Don't overplay those over-pairs!

Waingro · #10 01-24-2007, 10:03 PM

When I´m playing well I fold the flop and I´m pretty happy about it, when I play my normal game I fold the turn and when I play like today I fold the river.

There is absolutely no way you can put in 200 bbs with JJ ui vs this guy. So you are basically hoping that he is a) bluffing and b) will stop bluffing so you won´t have to pay with your stack to find out what he is up to. I really think folding the flop is the best course of action here.

Edit: Gir, wanted to ask this for some time, Blueberry fan?