donk bets confuse me: AA in BB

[linuxrocks]

Villian is running at 30/16.7/0.5. Haven't seen him bet so big on the river and with his aggression, it felt like this can't be a bluff. But, I can beat a king. Question is: how often does he have two pair or better (like a flush)?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

UTG ($783)
MP ($448)
Button ($1206.45)
SB ($589.35)
linuxrocks ($641.35)

Preflop: linuxrocks is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $8</font>, <font color="#CC3333">linuxrocks raises to $36</font>, SB calls $28.

Flop: ($72) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $4</font>, <font color="#CC3333">linuxrocks raises to $68</font>, SB calls $64.

Turn: ($208) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $16</font>, linuxrocks calls $16.

River: ($240) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $169.35</font>, linuxrocks ??.

Final Pot: $240

[schwza]

i'd call there for sure.

[fringsrache]

raise more on the flop and raise his turn bet a bit so that he checks to u on the river.

[Xanta]

Raise turn smallish, so that he can't fold there or on the river. I have trouble putting him on two suited cards not involving a K or on 2 pair that played like he did on the flop. I guess he can have sets, but I know that you have AA and I hear that's a pretty good hand!

Seriously though, I do a half fistpump before calling here. Not a full one, not a double, but a halfie for sure.

[Isura]

Anyone like a raise?

[linuxrocks]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone like a raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

raise is just too bad at 2/4. No one ever folds two pair here, if that's what you are targeting to get a fold. Single pairs will fold and all flushes will call. Raise is just bad.

[linuxrocks]

[ QUOTE ]
raise more on the flop and raise his turn bet a bit so that he checks to u on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's close to a pot raise on the flop. What more do you want? I don't see what raising turn accomplishes. As played, I think river is a call.

[ChrisV]

I think it's significant that he had time to size his bet exactly, down to the cent, so that he'd have 300 left.

I don't know what it signifies, though.

btw, if you're planning on calling this river, I also like raise turn.

[tuckercat]

as a rule of thumb, when the fish show strength on the river, i'm automatically leaning towards a fold. with that said, there's a TON that beats us. i dump it as played.

[Pasterbator]

raise/fold the turn.