Is there a formula books use to set the moneyline?

[cbloom]

Say the spread is X and I bet the moneyline, is there a formula they use to set the payouts? Or if I adjust the spread by Y, how does that affect the payouts? Do the books often fudge these numbers based on action? (they seem to not be totally concistent all the time).

[MyTurn2Raise]

it's more than just the spread

it's the distribution of outcomes

think of all possible outcomes as a bell curve

some are flatter with more outlier results

others are more centered



it depends on the match-ups and how much variability of resuts are expected

[DrNo888]

Check out the Wong book. There's a chapter talking about moneyline vs spread and has a chart that shows the ML at certain spread.

[npc]

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Say the spread is X and I bet the moneyline, is there a formula they use to set the payouts?

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Basically, yes. The "formula" depends on the sport. Given enough historical data it's pretty easy to calculate for yourself.

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Or if I adjust the spread by Y, how does that affect the payouts?

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Do you mean, do books automatically adjust the ML as they adjust the spread and vice versa? The answer is that they often do, but not always.

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Do the books often fudge these numbers based on action? (they seem to not be totally concistent all the time).

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Sometimes they do. A good example is last year's Superbowl. The ML and spread numbers were significantly out-of-whack compared to each other. If you go back far enough, you might find a thread or two on this forum discussing this specific issue.

To answer your unasked question, sometimes one or the other is a better value, and if you know how these numbers ought to relate, you can often determine which of the two is the better bet.