Shocking AK hand, be gentle...

[djj6835]

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On the flop you're sitting on the direct right of the likely raiser in a multiway pot and you DONK it?? Awful. Just terrible. You played it slow preflop so that you could have this EXACT situation come up and then you blew it. If you checked, MP would c-bet most of the time, probably to $1.50. Then, after button and SB called the bet, your call makes it $8.10 and you can safely raise all-in. That's a pot-sized raise that folds out MOST of your opponents, winning you a HUGE pot uncontested. If you're called it's likely to be by a drawing hand and you'll be ahead, or it'll be a weaker pair figuring you for a draw and you'll blow it out of the water.


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I completely disagree. This is a super scary board in a 4 way pot. Unless the opener is raising really tight preflop then he is checking this flop a lot given the pot is 4 way. Leading is definitely correct here imo as everybody's calling range is this spot is going to be wider than their betting range.

[gumpzilla]

I think this is pretty much fine. You can 3bet preflop, but OOP I don't think it's necessary. (EDIT: I guess I'm unclear on why everybody wants to pump the pot OOP. I suppose it's nice for when you hit, but with the amount of interest shown preflop by the others I don't think you're going to pick it up preflop, and there are a lot of whiffed flops that you'll cbet that you're going to get looked up on. I'd prefer to keep this pot modestly sized at the moment.)

I would probably make a moderate lead on the river, but c/c is okay as well.

[Profish2285]

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I completely disagree. This is a super scary board in a 4 way pot. Unless the opener is raising really tight preflop then he is checking this flop a lot given the pot is 4 way. Leading is definitely correct here imo as everybody's calling range is this spot is going to be wider than their betting range.

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This is my thinking as well. The PFR could easily have a hand that will not bet here and we cant risk this flop getting checked around. It is much better to donk here and make sure you get some value/protection out of your hand than to check and watch it get checked around. I definitely agree that the calling ranges of people here are wider than their betting ranges.

[1tripz1]

Some interesting debate here!

Pre flop Gump got it spot on with my thoughts, i really wanted to raise, but figured because of the action i would probably get a couple of callers and if i miss then its just horrid.

On the flop im giving no free cards, but i realise i should of potted it. but again my heads abit screwy right now.

Interesting to see everyone saying post flop was almost fine but Pokey saying the opposite. Any other thoughts?

Shame i posted the results but it does not really make a difference with the debate.

[Profish2285]

Dont get me wrong, I know where pokey is coming from with this, and yes if youre confident that villain c-bets here, then a c/r is optimal. However, I am saying that the board is very threatening and I dont think villain c-bets here as often as a villain would if the board was more dry.

[NeverScurred]

I'm with Pokey on this one. I think you should have reraised perflop, but if you do decide to flat, the only reason to do so is because you have good relative position in the hand. To donk the flop totally takes away said relative position, making your preflop play ridiculous. I think this flop hits the other players' ranges pretty hard, and I don't think it gets checked around that often. If the PFR bets behind you, you're in a great situation. C/R flop.

[Pokey]

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I am saying that the board is very threatening and I dont think villain c-bets here as often as a villain would if the board was more dry.

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Undeniably true: the chances that villain c-bets this flop have gone down. However, our goal is not to get money into the pot with the highest frequency; our goal is to win the largest AVERAGE pot.

Think of it this way: we've got $2.10 in the pot and four opponents. Let's say that villain c-bets only half the time here. A c-bet is going to be about $1.50. Given how drawy the board is, others are bound to like SOMETHING about the pot, and that means that they're likely to call. If there's a c-bet and one caller, there will be $5 in the pot when it comes back to us, and check-raising all-in isn't even much of an overbet. If they both fold, we win a whopping 50 BBs -- that's half a stack! If someone calls then we're still likely ahead, though our opponent will surely have some outs. We exert maximum pressure on draws, charge them an unfair price to continue, and we get ALL the money in the middle while our hand is best. That's as good as it gets.

If instead we go ahead and bet we're likely to get a caller. When that happens we're probably going to be OOP in a now-huge pot with a hand that suffers greatly from RIO on a drawy board and two streets away from the river. That situation sucks in eight different directions, and we're probably either going to win a 50 BB pot or lose a stack -- not my favorite options.

If BOTH of our opponents check through on the flop, that sucks, and it makes the hand harder. However, I can't see that happening very often -- the pot is a large enough temptation that SOMEONE is bound to take a stab at it after all that checking in front of them. Your preflop action laid a trap -- it's not consistent or profitable to now shout "hey, look at my trap!" If you're going to smooth-call this hand preflop you're doing so for a reason, and THIS is the reason. Follow through with your plan and you will make the most money in the long run.

If you were always intending on donkbetting if you flopped TPTK then go ahead and three-bet preflop and get it over with. This "slowplay preflop, donkbet the flop" stuff is both passive and straightforward, and neither of those is profitable at the tables.

I totally understand the temptation to bet this one, but with two players (INCLUDING the preflop raiser) still to act you've got to give them a chance to either steal or protect their second best hands. It totally sucks when your plan fails, but when it works you'll make SO much more money that I believe it winds up being the most profitable approach in the long run.

This thought process is very similar to the "I've got the nuts on the river; how much do I bet?" question. Most players like to underbet the pot -- say, half-pot or less. They know they have a winner and they want to get paid, damn it. If you have tons of cash behind and if your opponent's hand might be very strong but second-best, that's usually a big mistake. A much bigger bet will get called less frequently but often it will get called frequently enough to make the LONG-RUN expectation bigger. PNL talks about this on pages 121-122 where they mention that if a $50 bet into a $100 pot gets called 80% of the time, then a $500 all-in bet only has to be called 8% of the time to be just as profitable. In their words:

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Many players have trouble with longshot odds because of "negative feedback." If your opponent calls 15 percent of the time when you go all-in for $500, that is more profitable than his calling $50 80 percent of the time. However, the all-in bet may "feel" wrong, because 85% of the time you win nothing.

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The preflop raiser might check behind -- you're right, that's undeniable, and you're taking a risk by going for the check-raise, especially with a vulnerable hand and especially on a drawy board. However, I believe the reward outweighs the risk, and if we weren't willing to take risks we wouldn't be playing poker, right?

[djj6835]

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Think of it this way: we've got $2.10 in the pot and four opponents. Let's say that villain c-bets only half the time here. A c-bet is going to be about $1.50. Given how drawy the board is, others are bound to like SOMETHING about the pot, and that means that they're likely to call. If there's a c-bet and one caller, there will be $5 in the pot when it comes back to us, and check-raising all-in isn't even much of an overbet. If they both fold, we win a whopping 50 BBs -- that's half a stack! If someone calls then we're still likely ahead, though our opponent will surely have some outs. We exert maximum pressure on draws, charge them an unfair price to continue, and we get ALL the money in the middle while our hand is best. That's as good as it gets.


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Our equity in this pot is going to be very different when you check raise than when you bet and get called. Villain's betting range does not equal his calling range.

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If instead we go ahead and bet we're likely to get a caller. When that happens we're probably going to be OOP in a now-huge pot with a hand that suffers greatly from RIO on a drawy board and two streets away from the river. That situation sucks in eight different directions, and we're probably either going to win a 50 BB pot or lose a stack -- not my favorite options.


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I'm not really sure why this matters given that you want to felt this hand anyways on the flop against a tighter range than if we just lead.

edit: just ouf curiousity how are you playing 99 on this flop? What about AQ of hearts?

[monkover]

pokey,

you reasoning imo is way off in this hand. I haven´t read everythjing the others said but my problem is that you assume that you have villain´s c/r calling range beat which in my experince is not the case!
Assuming that villain´s c/r calling range and their normal calling range are the same is plain wrong.
and the way i understood you is that you´re fine with stacking off here b/c the board is very wet. Stacking off here imo is nothing short of aweful.

[traz]

preflop is pretty bad, betting the flop is completely standard. Hard to say where you're at when you're raised though. I doubt i'd ever check the flop here