Shannon Shorr thinking of quitting ...

[ActionJeff]

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i also fail to see the logic that you stopped playing cash while you were killing 25/50 to pay Chinese loses with your online money

surely if you were killing these games wouldn't it make sense to put some money back in????

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most wouldn't understand, when you lose that much after making so much you are happy to get out with the money you have and never want to put that money you saved back on the line again...

I recently went broke online, was sitting with over 500k in my normal bank account (ya I know i should invest most lol) and even more in investments, and feel absolutely gut wrenchingly sick having to work out trades of my cash for online money, its just awful man, tough to explain

[mkind0516]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i also fail to see the logic that you stopped playing cash while you were killing 25/50 to pay Chinese loses with your online money

surely if you were killing these games wouldn't it make sense to put some money back in????

[/ QUOTE ]

most wouldn't understand, when you lose that much after making so much you are happy to get out with the money you have and never want to put that money you saved back on the line again...

I recently went broke online, was sitting with over 500k in my normal bank account (ya I know i should invest most lol) and even more in investments, and feel absolutely gut wrenchingly sick having to work out trades of my cash for online money, its just awful man, tough to explain

[/ QUOTE ]

Went through a similar experience earlier this year. Once you play at those stakes and lose a lot, it's tough to go back and do it again. That's why I stopped playing cash games and went back to playing tournaments (under a backer, even tho I still had plenty of money).

Now if only I could figure out how to win a race...

[LetMeLive]

YAY ANOTHER WHINY MKIND POST!

[Abbaddabba]

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But my whole idea of "the long run" is because in a person's lifetime they may get the short end of the stick in situations where they are favorites to win. Ex. AK vs. J10, obviously we all know percentage wise that the AK is a slight favorite and in "the long run" AK will win more times than the J10, but the J10 will still win also. But a certain person may witness the J10 win more in their lifetime than the AK due to bad luck. That's my whole point in saying that no one will be alive long enough to see the long run. Because the percentages will play out over every hand that is ever dealt, not a person's lifetime.

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if you think the edge that AK has against J10 AIPF is small, it would blow your mind if you fully understood how small the edge players who are actually good have over bad players.


people might witness J10 win more because it's a very specific situation that even someone who plays 10k hands a week may only see once a month.

but every hand possesses the same element of chance.


i wont be alive long enough for the actual results of 2h3h all in on the flop against AA on an AA7 board to converge with the expected results. i will play maybe one hand where that happens in my lifetime.

but i will be long enough to see my overall winrate converge with my expected winrate, to a reasonable degree. and that's because i play about half a million hands a year.

[blueodum]

"i wont be alive long enough for the actual results of 2h3h all in on the flop against AA on an AA7 board to converge with the expected results. i will play maybe one hand where that happens in my lifetime."

Yes you will.

The results will be AA win 100% 2h3h wins 0% on an AA7 board no matter how many times this situation arises. Unless you have A7 hearts on the board (which you didn't state) and then AA would lose only if it comes exactly 4h5h.

Even in this situation, the likelihood of AA losing is so small (precisely 1 in 1012.5) that you would have to be really unlucky to experience it in your lifetime, given that this exact situation might arise 2-3 times at most in a poker player's career.

[stinkypete]

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"i wont be alive long enough for the actual results of 2h3h all in on the flop against AA on an AA7 board to converge with the expected results. i will play maybe one hand where that happens in my lifetime."

Yes you will.

The results will be AA win 100% 2h3h wins 0% on an AA7 board no matter how many times this situation arises. Unless you have A7 hearts on the board (which you didn't state) and then AA would lose only if it comes exactly 4h5h.

Even in this situation, the likelihood of AA losing is so small (precisely 1 in 1012.5) that you would have to be really unlucky to experience it in your lifetime, given that this exact situation might arise 2-3 times at most in a poker player's career.

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you should check your math and stuff

also, why would the 7h have to be on the board?

[Abbaddabba]

it wouldnt.

i have no idea what he's thinking.


the point was clearly to illustrate that there'll be some deviation from the expected results. 100% isnt a completely accurate reflection, but the standard he's using for requiring complete convergence of every obscure hand is not realistic or necessary.

and that example wont arise 2 or 3 times in someones life. it will probably never occur.

[Daddy Warbucks]

You know you're big time when somebody on FTP has an account named after you

Snannon Snorr (Observer): and break the mouse

[budblown]

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[ QUOTE ]
But my whole idea of "the long run" is because in a person's lifetime they may get the short end of the stick in situations where they are favorites to win. Ex. AK vs. J10, obviously we all know percentage wise that the AK is a slight favorite and in "the long run" AK will win more times than the J10, but the J10 will still win also. But a certain person may witness the J10 win more in their lifetime than the AK due to bad luck. That's my whole point in saying that no one will be alive long enough to see the long run. Because the percentages will play out over every hand that is ever dealt, not a person's lifetime.

[/ QUOTE ]

if you think the edge that AK has against J10 AIPF is small, it would blow your mind if you fully understood how small the edge players who are actually good have over bad players.


people might witness J10 win more because it's a very specific situation that even someone who plays 10k hands a week may only see once a month.

but every hand possesses the same element of chance.


i wont be alive long enough for the actual results of 2h3h all in on the flop against AA on an AA7 board to converge with the expected results. i will play maybe one hand where that happens in my lifetime.

but i will be long enough to see my overall winrate converge with my expected winrate, to a reasonable degree. and that's because i play about half a million hands a year.

[/ QUOTE ]

"people might witness J10 win more because it's a very specific situation that even someone who plays 10k hands a week may only see once a month.

but every hand possesses the same element of chance."
- I'm not talking about J10 specifically, I'm referring to the 3:2 (roughly) favorite that the AK is over the J10. Basically what I'm saying is in a person's life the J10 may outrun the AK at a 3:2 winrate (instead of the other way around) because a person only sees less than .0001 % of the total times that J10 is against AK. And in all the other hands that are dealt in the world the AK may be a winner at a higher winrate than 3:2 because as we all know, variance is a bitch.

"but i will be long enough to see my overall winrate converge with my expected winrate, to a reasonable degree. and that's because i play about half a million hands a year."
- Well, I'm not saying that you personally wouldn't see that, I'm saying that any random individual isn't guaranteed to see a 3:2 favorite win 3 out of 5 times. Which is basically what people refer to when they say "in the long run I'll win that AK vs. J10 (or whatever the situation is)"

[DCJ311]

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"i wont be alive long enough for the actual results of 2h3h all in on the flop against AA on an AA7 board to converge with the expected results. i will play maybe one hand where that happens in my lifetime."

Yes you will.

The results will be AA win 100% 2h3h wins 0% on an AA7 board no matter how many times this situation arises. Unless you have A7 hearts on the board (which you didn't state) and then AA would lose only if it comes exactly 4h5h.

Even in this situation, the likelihood of AA losing is so small (precisely 1 in 1012.5) that you would have to be really unlucky to experience it in your lifetime, given that this exact situation might arise 2-3 times at most in a poker player's career.

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Face it, there are some spots in a person's poker career that simply won't even out. How many times are you going to play a $135,000 pot with 86h vs ThTc on a Td Ts 7h board and win? It's ok to complain about bad beats sometimes, because some things just don't even out. The 'long run' is often much longer than people realize because of pots like this one that sometimes occur in big cash games and deep in major WSOP/WPT events.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1711300