Memphis/Lakers over 218

[iggymcfly]

I'm not much of an expert when it comes to NBA totals, and it may seem square to be taking the over on the hot scoring team that everyone knows about, but consider the following facts:

Since Kobe decided to "take over" the scoring for the Lakers, the average total has been 224.4 for Lakers games.

According to Hollinger, Memphis ranks 11/30 in offensive efficiency and 30/30 in defensive efficiency. Memphis is the 8th fastest paced team in the NBA.

In two games before the streak started, the Lakers played Memphis to totals of 172 and 246. In one game against Memphis since the streak started, the Lakers played Memphis to a total of 240.

Sorry if some of this is reaching a little bit, but I think it's enough to say that the Lakers should be able to run up and down the floor and put up a lot of points if they want to. I also think it's enough to take a shot at over 218 for 2 units.

[whipsaw]

yes i like this over, which means you should bet under. lots of layups for everyone tonight in my opinion.

[iggymcfly]

Only missed it by 44, bad beat I guess. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Probably should put a little more study in before I try betting NBA totals again, especially on what looks to be obviously the square side. Between Clemson and Nashville, I still ended up ahead 3.3 units on the day though, so I'm not too mad.

[ImNew]

What is your YTD record iggymcfly? Just curious. I have lots of respect for your pick.

And you are a high stake poker pro?

[iggymcfly]

Well, I usually don't bet the NBA. My YTD record betting the NBA is 0-1. My best sport is college football followed by the NFL and college basketball.

If you search "Iggy's Bowl Picks", you can find my final NCAAF record. I think I ended up maybe 10 games over .500 and up 10 units, but I can't remember for sure. The NFL, I was just experimenting with and didn't track, but I think my record was somewhere around 60%.

The only record I'm actively tracking right now is my NCAA tournament record which is 22-13-1. I didn't bet seriously during the regular season just due to the difficulties of moving money to different books right after the Neteller stuff went down.

And yes, I play poker for a living, although it's been more mid-stakes recently. 2/4 PLO and 20/40 LHE have been my main games the last little while.

[npc]

So, we've seen Memphis play WAY under in their last two games. They started out the year as a low scoring team before kicking it into high gear. Now they have some key folks out with injuries. Tomorrow's game against Portland is only their third game since the first of the year with a total set under 200 points.

Are the last two (low scoring) games anomalous, or are we back to a grind-it-out style of play for Memphis? Any thoughts?

[MicroBob]

trying to figure out WTF the grizzlies are doing is a 100% pointless exercise.

[ImNew]

Memphis's aim is to screw up the bettors.