Did He Touch Home?

[craig]

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Well, I don't have a specific stat for it, but it seems obvious that a batter with say a 3-1 count in a tie game bottom of the 9th with the bases loaded can be a lot more certain a fastball (or at least an attempted strike) is coming than a batter in the same situation, except with a base open.

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This will possibly derail the thread even more, but in the 3-1 count, bases loaded, bot of 9th inning (or extras), 0 outs, and tie game, is the correct play to almost never swing? 'The Book' says the average pitcher can throw a strike, 'if he really wants to', only 70% of the time. Even if it is an above average pitcher who could do it 80% of the time, wouldn't the right move be to take the pitch?

craig

[bravos1]

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wtf? this post makes no sense. One: Holliday getting in a rundown on purpose would be retarded. Two: you argue it such that it sounds like Holliday is on the Padres.

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WTF, getting in rundown on purpose is not retarded if you are sure you are going to be out. That is, I'm ten feet from home and catcher is waiting with the ball in his glove.
Are you sayng you don't force a rundown in this situation so your guy on 1st can advance???? get real.

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If you're that terrible a base runner that you can misjudge a ground ball and get thrown out by 10 feet, I don't think you have the ability to force a run down.

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Actually, this is far from true especially if Col had the contact play on (which would not be smart w/ 1st and 3rd no one out, but that's not the point).

[Pudge714]

Did He Touch Home? is on the front page with Isiah Thomas Civil Trail and CBS Pedophilia. I keep reading it thinking it's innuendo.

[ArcticKnight]

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wtf? this post makes no sense. One: Holliday getting in a rundown on purpose would be retarded. Two: you argue it such that it sounds like Holliday is on the Padres.

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WTF, getting in rundown on purpose is not retarded if you are sure you are going to be out. That is, I'm ten feet from home and catcher is waiting with the ball in his glove.
Are you sayng you don't force a rundown in this situation so your guy on 1st can advance???? get real.

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If you're that terrible a base runner that you can misjudge a ground ball and get thrown out by 10 feet, I don't think you have the ability to force a run down.

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Arctic,

OK.. I see what you're saying now, but you're still very wrong. The plays that happen in which Holliday could end up in a pickle (i.e. ball beats him by ten feet) are rare. On top of that, getting Helton all the way to 3rd would be rare as well, as that's a long pickle. It also runs the risk of Helton getting himself out, which would be a disaster.

More importantly, on any play that Holliday would get into a pickle on, he should probably just stay put. Then you have 1 out and runners or 2nd and 3rd, instead of whatever might happen if Holliday gets thrown out by ten feet (most likely runners on 1st and 2nd with 1 out, smaller chance of 3rd and 1st, and really small chance of 2nd and 3rd, and of course some chance the Pads get another out on the base paths).

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Good points. I guess I was just trying to say that with the bases loaded,and a ball on the ground, Holliday has zero options as a baserunner, but he can create some havok if they are not.

One thing I'm sure of. If Bo Jackson was on 3rd at the time, there would be no "did he touch home " thread...lol

[legend42]

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This will possibly derail the thread even more, but in the 3-1 count, bases loaded, bot of 9th inning (or extras), 0 outs, and tie game, is the correct play to almost never swing? 'The Book' says the average pitcher can throw a strike, 'if he really wants to', only 70% of the time. Even if it is an above average pitcher who could do it 80% of the time, wouldn't the right move be to take the pitch?

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You could be right. But I would think there are certain hitters to whom it might be optimal to give the green light. Obviously, they'd still be taking the vast majority of the time, but if they sit on a certain pitch in a certain spot that they can drive to the outfield 90% of the time (and who will chase out of the zone almost never) then that might trump the pitcher's control %. Plus, it's good for metagame.

[ArcticKnight]

Please tell me if the following seems reasonable or out-to-lunch. Here is what probably went through the umpire's mind, regardless of what he said post-game. (I realize it sums up lots of what has already been said).

"the throw is going to be on time"
"the runner is going to be out if the tag is made"
"the tag is made -the runner is out if the catcher still has the ball"
"the ball is loose"
"the runner is SA.....OMG did he get the plate...my view was blocked...."
"the catcher is NOT going for the ball - the runner is NOT going back to the plate
"SAFE"

So, the Ump is so focussed on the tag and post collision control of the ball, that he judges the touch/no touch very quickly based on the catcher and runner's post-collision actions.

We all know that it is not unusual for referees to factor players reactions when considering fouls or penalties - heck, it's the reason they have the "diving" penalty in hockey, and it also explains why soccer players roll around screaming like schoolgirls if they think they can draw a foul.

Doesn't seem unreasonable then that in the second following the collision, that the unpire made the call based on the combined reactions of the catcher and runner.

[ArcticKnight]

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Did He Touch Home? is on the front page with Isiah Thomas Civil Trail and CBS Pedophilia. I keep reading it thinking it's innuendo.

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LOL Pudge...right now "Consecutive days of boozing?" is directly above "organ donation" on the 1st page of OOT....

New liver anyone???

[manbearpig]

Is anybody really blaming the ump for the call? I completely agree with ArcticKnight on his reasoning of the umps thought process above.

I dont know what else McClellan could have done in the situation. He had to make a call. The ball was on the ground and the runner very easily could have touched home. He used the info he had.

[mo42nyy]

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Is anybody really blaming the ump for the call? I completely agree with ArcticKnight on his reasoning of the umps thought process above.

I dont know what else McClellan could have done in the situation. He had to make a call. The ball was on the ground and the runner very easily could have touched home. He used the info he had.

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not being completely out of position would have been helpful.

[vhawk01]

I'm sorry, the angle they just showed on the pre-game coverage on TBS shows he ABSOLUTELY did not touch home. Some people in this thread have been saying its inconclusive, there was no definitive view, this one was from sort of above and a little towards the firstbase side of "right behind homeplate" and you could see the catchers foot clearly in front of homeplate the entire time.