Did He Touch Home?

[MacGuyV]

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He absolutely did not touch the plate. I think Holliday knew it, but he thought that if he made a move toward the plate he was going to get tagged and it would be obvious he hadn't touched the plate and he would be called out. So, he stayed where he was and hoped for the best. Also, he was in a daze from his face-plant.


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Yah whether the guy was seeing stars or not, WTF is going to backtrack to home & admit they missed the plate? Obv. staying put is the +ev move in that spot.

[ArcticKnight]

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wtf? this post makes no sense. One: Holliday getting in a rundown on purpose would be retarded. Two: you argue it such that it sounds like Holliday is on the Padres.

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WTF, getting in rundown on purpose is not retarded if you are sure you are going to be out. That is, I'm ten feet from home and catcher is waiting with the ball in his glove.
Are you sayng you don't force a rundown in this situation so your guy on 1st can advance???? get real.

[ArcticKnight]

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He absolutely did not touch the plate. I think Holliday knew it, but he thought that if he made a move toward the plate he was going to get tagged and it would be obvious he hadn't touched the plate and he would be called out. So, he stayed where he was and hoped for the best. Also, he was in a daze from his face-plant.


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Yah whether the guy was seeing stars or not, WTF is going to backtrack to home & admit they missed the plate? Obv. staying put is the +ev move in that spot.

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Unless you know the ball has rolled far enough away that you are SURE you can touch home before the catcher can get the ball and tag you. Then staying put would not be smart, no matter how sure you were that you touched home.

[manbearpig]

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Catchers interference- hitter gets 1st, runners only advance if stealing or forced.

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With the bases loaded, they would be forced. The run would score. <font color="red"> You are obviously right here. I am retarded. </font>

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Dropped 3rd strike- runner on 1st negates this rule (I think)


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Yeah, you're right about this one, with less than 2 outs. My bad.

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So a HBP or walk is the only thing negative to worry about extra here. Which has to be outweighed by the ability to have a force out at home, etc.

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I'm pretty sure it is not.

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Agree to disagree. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Neuge]

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1st and 3rd no outs is a completely different situation than the bases loaded no outs when you absolutely cannot let one run score.

You can't go for the DP because the runner on third comes home. It's better to load up the bases to AT LEAST get the force at home if not the X-2-3 double play.

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if I remember ev right it was .894 for bl and .9 for 1 and 3rd, but the difference between carroll and helton probably makes that enough to not walk him.

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Expected number of runs isn't the right metric. The right one is the probability that at least one run scores as opposed to none. I don't know off the top of my head, but I would guess it's easier to get out of the inning with the bases loaded (if that's what you're explicitly trying to do--as opposed to the middle of the game) than with first and third.

Shane

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That isn't expected runs. That's Win Expectancy.

1st and 3rd, no out, tie game, home team up in the 9th (or extra) inning, the average team is expected to win the game 90% of the time. If the bases are loaded, that win probability drops to 89.4%.

[Dudd]

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wtf? this post makes no sense. One: Holliday getting in a rundown on purpose would be retarded. Two: you argue it such that it sounds like Holliday is on the Padres.

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WTF, getting in rundown on purpose is not retarded if you are sure you are going to be out. That is, I'm ten feet from home and catcher is waiting with the ball in his glove.
Are you sayng you don't force a rundown in this situation so your guy on 1st can advance???? get real.

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If you're that terrible a base runner that you can misjudge a ground ball and get thrown out by 10 feet, I don't think you have the ability to force a run down.

[Pudge714]

vhawk,
It's not only percent of plays at the plates it percent of plays at the plates where the speed will swing if from being safe to being out.
Holliday is bigger he could force the catcher to drop some balls.
Holliday might stay at third on plays were a faster runner would go and get thrown out.

[vhawk01]

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vhawk,
It's not only percent of plays at the plates it percent of plays at the plates where the speed will swing if from being safe to being out.
Holliday is bigger he could force the catcher to drop some balls.
Holliday might stay at third on plays were a faster runner would go and get thrown out.

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Yeah, thats what I was trying to get at when I was talking about how big the speed edge is. So, if there are only going to be plays at the plate a few percent of the time, but Holliday is going to be out 80% and this fabled PR is going to score 100%, thats a bigger overall edge. But of course the edge is going to be much smaller than that. So, both quantity and quality are small edges, equaling an overall negligible advantage, especially compared to not having Holliday for the 14th, 15th and so on.

[kidcolin]

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wtf? this post makes no sense. One: Holliday getting in a rundown on purpose would be retarded. Two: you argue it such that it sounds like Holliday is on the Padres.

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WTF, getting in rundown on purpose is not retarded if you are sure you are going to be out. That is, I'm ten feet from home and catcher is waiting with the ball in his glove.
Are you sayng you don't force a rundown in this situation so your guy on 1st can advance???? get real.

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If you're that terrible a base runner that you can misjudge a ground ball and get thrown out by 10 feet, I don't think you have the ability to force a run down.

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Arctic,

OK.. I see what you're saying now, but you're still very wrong. The plays that happen in which Holliday could end up in a pickle (i.e. ball beats him by ten feet) are rare. On top of that, getting Helton all the way to 3rd would be rare as well, as that's a long pickle. It also runs the risk of Helton getting himself out, which would be a disaster.

More importantly, on any play that Holliday would get into a pickle on, he should probably just stay put. Then you have 1 out and runners or 2nd and 3rd, instead of whatever might happen if Holliday gets thrown out by ten feet (most likely runners on 1st and 2nd with 1 out, smaller chance of 3rd and 1st, and really small chance of 2nd and 3rd, and of course some chance the Pads get another out on the base paths).

[legend42]

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It's not just the possibility of the walk. It's the batter knowing you can't walk him, which gives him a significant advantage, especially if he gets ahead in the count.

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Did you just make this first part up?

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Well, I don't have a specific stat for it, but it seems obvious that a batter with say a 3-1 count in a tie game bottom of the 9th with the bases loaded can be a lot more certain a fastball (or at least an attempted strike) is coming than a batter in the same situation but with a base open. I don't see how that would even be disputable. Then, is it such a leap of logic to surmise this knowledge would give the batter an advantage?

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How do these disadvantages compare to having a force at every base? Because, just intuitively, I'd say having a force at every base&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;all the rest of this crap, the only meaningful thing being you could walk a guy.

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My intuition is opposite. I don't think the difference is as severe as your assessment, and the possibility of a x-2-3 DP shifts the balance a little bit, but unless my pitcher had rock-solid control, or the current batter was markedly better than the next two guys up, I'd rather have the luxury of being able to pitch around the guy than the force at home.

But the win expectancy looks like the situations are almost identical. So it would all depend on the variables.